走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第93章
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I once met a father and son team of successful money managers。 The father began grooming his son for the business while the boy was still a teenager。 On weekends he used to take him to the track and give his son 10 for the day。 That was his lunch money and betting money。 The father spent the day with his cronies； while the kid could e up and ask questions but never got another dollar。 He had to make his money betting horses and manage his resources if he wanted to eat lunch that day。 Learning to handicap horses （technical analysis）； manage his stake （money management）； and wait for the best odds （psychology） paid off a million…fold after the son joined his father in managing a hedge fund。
我曾经遇到父子二人为一组的成功的资金管理者。父亲在他的儿子十几岁时就开始培养他的商业才能。周末他常带他去赛马场，并给他10 元，作为那天他的午餐和赌本。父亲整天都与朋友们在一起，他的儿子如果有问题可以过来问他，但不会再得到额外的1 元钱。他必须自己通过赌马来赚钱，如果还想吃午餐的话，就得管好自己的钱。研究障碍赛马（技术分析），管理自己的赌注（资金管理），并且等待最佳机会（心态），在儿子加入他的父亲的对冲基金后赢利了一百万倍。
A good trading system gives you an edge in the market。 To use a technical term； it provides a positive expectation over a long series of trials。 A good system ensures that winning is more likely than losing over a long series of trades。 If your system can do that； you need money management； but if you have no positive expectation； no amount of money management will save you from losing。
一个好的交易系统给了你一把在市场中战斗的利刃。要使用一个技术指标，在经过长期的系列试验后它能提供积极的期望值。一个好的系统能确保长期结算下来利润超过亏损。如果你的系统能做到这点，你还需要资金管理，但如果你没有积极的期望，没有任何资金管理会从亏损中拯救你。
For example； a roulette player has a negative expectation。 A roulette wheel has 38 slots in the United States and 37 in Europe； but only 36 are in play； as the house “owns” the remaining one or two。 Since a slot represents roughly 2。7％ of a wheel； over a period of time the house skims that much from each game； slowly bleeding players dry。 There is a primitive money management system called a martingale that has players start with a minimum bet； usually 1； and double up after each loss； so that in theory； when they eventually win； they get back all they lost plus 1； and start with 1 again。 Martingale does not work in real life because casinos limit maximum bets。 Once your loss runs up to that limit； a martingale just hits its head on the ceiling and dies。
例如，轮盘赌（一种赌者打赌转动盘上旋转的小球将停止于盘上哪一个槽内的赌博游戏。）玩家的期望是负的。在美国一个轮盘赌轮有38条淘槽，在欧洲有37 条，但在玩的时候只有36条，赌场“拥有”剩余的1 条或2 条。一个槽约占一个赌轮的2。7％，经过一段时间后，赌场就在每轮游戏中都占有高的胜率，慢慢地把玩家榨干。有一种原始的资金管理系统叫做加倍下注，开始时玩家下只下最小的赌注，通常是1 元，在每次输掉后就加倍下注。于是在理论上，当他们最终赢的时候，他们就会赚回所有的损失加1 元，然后重新以1 元的赌注开始。加倍下注法在现实生活中不起作用，因为赌场限制了最大赌注。一旦你的损失达到那个限制，加倍下注法就彻底玩蛋了。
In blackjack； on the other hand； a very disciplined trader who follows a tested strategy and counts cards has a slight edge over the casino； on the order of 1 or 2 percent； sometimes higher。 Here a good card counter needs money management to keep bets small on iffy hands and double up on strong hands。
另一方面，在21点游戏中，一个非常有纪律的玩家遵循曾经测试有效的策略，数牌能力会比赌场略占优势，约1％到2％ ，有时更高一些。这时，一个优秀的玩家需要资金管理，在牌不好时下较小的注，而在牌好时加倍下注。
Once you have a trading system with a positive expectation； you must establish money management rules。 Follow them as if your life depended on them； because it does。 When we lose money； we die as traders。
一旦你有了有正期望值的交易系统，你必须制定资金管理原则。遵循这些原则，就好像你的生命是依靠它们一样，事实也是如此。当我们失败时，我们就像交易者一样消失。
Whatever percentage of capital you lose； you must make a greater percentage to e back。 I used to carry a receipt from a car rental agency to illustrate this point。 The receipt showed a charge of 70； followed by a 10％ discount； and 10％ tax。 What was the bottom line？ If you said 70； go back to the books！ 70－10％=63。 63＋10％=69。30。 If 10％ is taken away and 10％ added； you end up below the starting point。 Losing equity is like falling into an ice cave … it’s easy to slide in but hard to claw your way out because the edges are slippery。 What happens when a trader knocks his 10；000 account down to 6；600？ He’s down 34％ and must make 50％ just to e back to even。 How likely is it that a trader who just dropped a third of his equity will earn 50％？ He’s at the bottom of an ice hole。 He’ll either die or get a new lease on life from an outside source。 The key question is whether he learns from his experience。
不管你损失的比例有多少，你都必须赚更多比例的钱来补偿。过去我常常带着一张汽车租赁公司的收据来证明这一点。该收据注明收费70元，打折10％，返税10％。那么结果是什么？如果你说是70 元，那么请再读一遍上文。70－10％=63，63＋10％=69。30。如果先减去10％ ，两加上10％，最后的结果就低于初始值。亏损就像跌进一个冰窟——下滑是容易的，但很难再爬出来，因为冰窟的壁太光滑了。当一个交易者的账户从10000元下滑到6600元时，会发生什么呢？他的账户亏损了34％，而他必须再赢利50％才能重新回到10000元，一个刚刚亏损掉三分之一资金的交易者，想要赚50％，可能吗？他处在一个冰窟的底部，他或者就此死去，或者重新投入资金。关键问题是他是否能从失败中吸取教训。
Markets are about as soft as a gladiator fight。 Life on the battle…field is measured in money。 Everybody’s fighting to take it away from you … petitors； vendors； and brokers。 Losing money is easy； making it is hard。
市场像一个柔软的角斗士场地。在这战斗中，生命是用金钱来计算的。每个人都在努力从你的身上掠夺金钱——竞争对手、商家和经纪人。亏钱很容易，但赚钱却很难。
Money management has two goals： survival and prosperity。 The first priority is to survive； then to grind out steady gains； and finally； to make spectacular gains。 Beginners tend to have those priorities reversed。 They shoot for spectacular gains but never think about long…term survival。 Putting survival first makes you focus on money management。 Serious traders are always focused on minimizing losses and growing equity。
资金管理有两个目的：生存和发展。首先是生存，其次是努力保持稳定的收益，最后是获得巨大的收益。新手一般都把优先顺序搞反了。他们直奔巨大的收益而去，从未考虑过怎样长期生存。把生存放在第一位，就是要集中精力做好资金管理。严谨的交易者通常会把精力集中在损失最小化和资金增长上。
The most successful money manager I know keeps saying he’s afraid of ending up as a taxi driver。 His engineering degree is out of date； he has no work experience outside the markets； and if he fails as a trader； all he can do is drive a cab。 He’s made millions； but still does everything in his power to avoid losing money。 He is one of the most disciplined people I know。
我认识的最成功的一个资金管理者，他总是说他害怕落得一个开出租车的下场。他的工程学学位已经过期，除交易之外他没有任何工作经验，如果他在交易中彻底失败了，唯一的出路就是去开出租车。他已经赚了数百万美元，但仍然竭尽全力避免亏损。他是我所认识的最有纪律的一个人。
NO MATH ILLITERATES
不要数学盲
Modern society makes it easy to live without counting。 Most of us rarely count； having grown accustomed to calculators and digital screens on appliances。 If you can add up the number of guests at a dinner party or figure out how many beers are left in a six…pack after you have drunk two； you’re in good shape。 It’s easy to go through life with hardly any arithmetic。 Not so in the markets。
在现代社会中，你不用算术也可以很容易生活。我们中的大部分人很少做计算，都已经习惯了计算器和设备上的数字显示屏。如果你能在晚会上算出客人的总数，或者算出六层啤酒你们喝了两层后还剩几层，那么你的状态是不错的。没有任何数学知识也照样可以过活。但在市场中却不是这样。
Trading is a numbers game。 If you cannot count； you cannot trade。 You do not need calculus or algebra； but you must be on easy terms with basic math … adding； subtracting； multiplying； an
