走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第79章
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that’s where you work。
新手应该选择1，2个股票池，好点的交易者可以选择4，5个股票池，专业人士知道他可以处理多少个。最好是，选择自己熟悉的行业。选择你认为有前途的行业，或者是你喜欢的行业。比如，你也许想关注于生物科技，或者是酒店行业，因为你在这个行业工作。
Select a broad rather than a narrow group。 For example； if you decide to track autos； look not just at car manufacturers； but also at panies that make auto parts； tires； etc。 The disadvantage of focusing on a single group is that you miss spectacular moves in others； but there are several advantages。 You learn which stocks tend to lead or follow。 When leaders start to move； they give you an advance signal to trade the laggards。 You can use relative strength； that is； buy the strongest stocks when the group moves up and short the weakest on the way down。 You can create an index that includes all the stocks you follow in your industry group； and then analyze that index。 This analytic tool is not available to any other trader。 If you use fundamental analysis； then having your finger on the pulse of a single industry； such as software； puts you miles ahead of petitors who trade Microsoft today and McDonald’s tomorrow。
选择一个范围广的行业，而不是窄的行业。比如，如果你选择汽车行业，不要仅仅研究汽车工业，还要研究生产汽车零件，轮胎的行业等。只关注一个行业的劣势就是你会错过其它行业的大波动，还有其它的劣势。你可以研究那些股票是领头羊，那些是跟着涨的，然后再研究指数。没有人有这样的分析工具。如果是使用基本面分析，研究专门的行业，比如软件业，这样就比那些今天交易微软，明天交易麦当劳的对手强多了。
A broadly defined industry group may include over a hundred stocks； but an intelligent beginner should not follow more than a dozen。 We can divide all stocks into blue chips and speculative “cats and dogs。” Blue chips are the stocks of large； well…established panies； held by many institutions and followed by many researchers。 They have a fairly well…established consensus of value around which they more or less gently oscillate。 If you design a system for catching their swings several times each year； the potential gains can be very attractive。 Don’t ignore the big Dow…type stocks。 Their orderly swings from the moving average to the channel wall create good trading opportunities。
一个宽广的行业也许包括100多个股票，但是聪明的新手知道只要跟踪十几个。我们可以把股票分为蓝筹股和低价股。蓝筹股就是大公司，著名公司的股票，很多机构和研究者都持有。它们的价值好，振荡小。如果你能设计一个系统，一年抓住几次波动，这样的收益也很吸引人。不要忘记了道琼斯指数里面的股票。它们在通道里有序的波动形成了很好的交易机会。
The so…called cats and dogs may spend months； if not years； flat at the bottom； in a speculative doghouse； until a fundamental change； or even a rumor of change； propels them to a breakout and a new uptrend。 Other cats and dogs may go nowhere or expire。 Those stocks offer much higher percentage gains than blue chips； but the risks are greater and you must spend a great deal of time waiting for them to move。 It makes sense to trade a large portion of your account in blue chips； while keeping a smaller portion in longer…term speculative positions。
低价股需要几个月，如果不是几年的话，在底部横盘。如果没有基本面的变化，或者是谣言的变化，是没人推动它们突破形成新趋势的。其它的低价股也不知道走哪里去了，或者就退市了。这样的股票产生的收益比蓝筹股高，但是风险也大，你需要大量的时间等待它们的动作。理性的做法是用大部分钱做蓝筹股，用小部分钱做投机股。
What if you’ve paid your dues； learned to trade a few stocks in a few groups； and now want to forage in wider pastures？ After all； technical patterns and signals are not all that different in various markets。 What if you want to scan a larger number of stocks for MACD divergences； Impulse breakouts； or other patterns that you learned to recognize； trust； and trade？
如果你已经花了一些钱，研究并交易了一些股票，现在想扩大寻找范围，会如何？总体而言，技术模式和信号在不同市场不是完全不同。如果你想用你学过的MACD背离，突破或其它模式来分析大量股票，会如何？
Go on the Internet and find a website that gives you the 100 most active stocks on the NASDAQ （and if you do not know how to find such a website； you haven’t got what it takes to trade them）。 Keep an eye on any stock that floats by you。 A newspaper article mentions several panies … look up their stocks。 People at a party talk about stocks … jot them down； drop them into your system； and see how they look on your screen。 Many tips call for an exercise of contrary thinking。 In summer 2001； Lucent （LU） was in the news with another earnings disappointment； having slid from 80 to 6。 The journalists were aghast； but that stock has pleted its bear market； traced an attractive bullish divergence； and was poised for a rally。 A rise from 6 to 9 is a 50％ increase。 Stocks that people tout at parties are often good candidates for shorting。 By the time outsiders bee interested； the rise tends to be over。 The idea is to maintain your curiosity and use tips not on their face value but only as invitations to look at this or that stock。 I find that my yield； the percentage of tips that I end up trading in either direction； is about 5％ … I end up trading one out of 20。 I have a friend； a brilliant trader； who often calls me asking to take a look at this or that stock。 My yield on her tips is 10％ … she is the best。
上网，网上有网站告诉你纳斯达克的100只最活跃的股票（如果你不会找，那么你就没有交易的基础）。仔细研究股票。报纸提到了几家公司——看看它们的股票。聚会时人们谈到了几个股票——找到它们，放入你的系统，看看它们的表现如何。有些提示告诉我们要逆向思考。2001年夏天，新闻说朗讯的收益下降，价格从80跌到6。记者都吓坏了，但是股票已经完成了下跌，跟踪到了看涨背离，准备上涨。从6涨到9就等于涨了50％。人们在聚会是推荐的股票一般是做空的备选股。当外面的人都产生兴趣时，上涨一般快结束了。要保持好奇，但不要被股票的表面价值影响，要多看看，合理利用消息。根据我的经验，我利用消息的比例是5％——20个消息，我只会交易一个。我有一个朋友，总是打电话给我，叫我看这个股票，看那个股票。她提供的消息，我采用的比例是10％——她是最好的。
The Turnover Ratio The Turnover Ratio （TRO） predicts expected volatility of any stock by paring its average daily volume with the available float。 This formula was brought to my attention by Roger Perry of The RightLine Report （rightline）：
周转率 周转率通过比较日均成交量和股票数来预测股票的波动。这个公式是“正确线报告”的罗杰·佩里提出的：
TRO = monthly volume divided by the available float
周转率=月成交量除以股票数
Volume for the past month is easy to calculate。 The available float refers to the total float； or number of shares issued； minus the holdings of institutions and insiders。 Those groups tend to hold positions more tightly than private traders； who are more likely to sell if the price is right。 All of the above figures are widely available from financial databases。
过去一个月的成交量很好计算。股票数指总数，已经发行的数量，要减去机构和内部人持有的数量。这些人比个人交易者还要紧紧地持有股票，个人交易者只要价格合适就卖了。以上所有数据都容易得到。
You can calculate the average monthly volume by multiplying the daily volume by 22； the number of trading days in a month。 Using the daily volume makes the TRO more responsive to changes in volume as a stock rolls into or out of favor with traders。
一个月的交易日有22天，你可以通过乘以22天成交量的方法来计算月均成交量。使用日成交量是周转率更能面对成交量的变化，因为股票总是在变。
TRO shows how many times the float trades in a month。 For example； if a stock’s monthly volume is 200 million shares and its available float 100 million； its TRO is 2。 If monthly volume of another stock is also 200 million； but its available float is 50 million； its TRO is 4。
周转率说明一个月内股票被交易了几次。比如，如果一只股票的月成交量是2亿股，它的数量是1亿股，那么周转率是2。如果另外一只股票的月成交量是2亿股，但数量是5000万股，它的周转率是4。
If the average volume is much lower than the float； that stock has a low turnover rate and an onrush of buyers is unlikely to move the price much。 However； if the volume is high relative to the float； then a lot of people pete for few available shares； and a sudden rush of buyers can move the price dramatically。
如果成交量均值比股票数低很多，那只股票的周转很低，如果买家突然出手，很可能把股价推高很多。如果成交量比股票数高很多，那么是很多人在争购很少的数量，此时买家的突�
