走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第78章
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Experienced traders sometimes joke that bear markets have no support and bull markets no resistance。 A runaway trend can overshoot all rational expectations。 The Chandelier deals with that by tying its stops to the price extreme as well as volatility。
有经验的交易者有时开玩笑说，下跌时没有支撑，上涨时没有压力。一个超大趋势会超出所有人的理性思考。吊灯止损就可以处理，它在价格下面放止损。
The negative side of Chandelier Exits is that they give up a great deal of profit。 Three Average True Ranges can amount to a lot of money in a volatile market。 A beginning trader is better off taking his profits at the channel wall。 A more advanced trader whose market is hitting its channel wall while showing great strength is more likely to switch to a Chandelier Exit。 If he holds a large position； he may take partial profits at the channel wall and carry the rest using the Chandelier。 The Chandelier Exit may act a backup exit strategy for experienced traders。
吊灯止损的缺点是容易放弃大量利润。在波动的市场，3倍的真实波动幅度均值可是很多钱啊。新手最好在通道枪兑现利润。有经验的交易者如果发现价格碰到了通道边缘，然而还有很强的力量，那么可以转到吊灯止损。如果他的仓位很大，他可以在通道边缘附近兑现部分利润，剩下来的仓位等吊灯止损。对于有经验的交易者，吊灯止损可以作为备用出场策略。
Gamblers lose fortunes trying to nail tops and bottoms。 A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend； leaving top…and bottom…fishing to people on an ego trip。 The Chandelier Exit helps take care of that chunk。
赌徒在寻找顶和底的过程中亏了很多钱。优秀的交易者很现实，他只想抓住大趋势的一部分，把寻找顶和底的工作让给其他人。吊灯止损就能帮忙找到这一部分。
CHOOSING WHAT TO TRADE
选择交易什么
Open a newspaper； and thousands of listings leap at you from the pages … stocks； mutual funds； futures； options； bonds； currencies。 Your data provider may offer a menu of 20；000 items or more。 Were you to download and review all of them； spending just two seconds on each； that process would take 11 hours。
打开报纸，几千个数据展现在你面前——股票，共同基金，期货，期权，债券，外汇。你的数据服务商提供的产品会超过20000个。如果你下载研究它们，每个产品看2秒钟，这个过程需要11个小时。
Beginners worry about missing opportunities and try to look at as many markets as possible。 They often ask for advice on scanning software。 They want to sift through thousands of stocks for something like a bullish divergence in MACD…Histogram。 First of all； divergences； so visible to the naked eye； are notoriously hard to program。 The best programmer I know tells me he’s done it … it is the pinnacle of his success … using the most expensive software。 Even if a beginner could get hold of his program； that expense would be wasted because he wouldn’t know what to do with the stocks he found in that search。 He wouldn’t know how to trade them correctly。 A beginner is better off focusing on a handful of markets； learning all about them； and trading them with care and attention。
新手害怕错过机会，总想观察所有的市场。他们在扫描波动软件时，到处找建议。他们在几千个股票里面找东西，比如MACD柱的看涨背离。首先，用肉眼眼看见很容易，编程就很难。最优秀的编程高手告诉我他成功了——是他成功的顶峰——是使用最昂贵的软件。如果新手能得到他的软件，费用也会被浪费，因为他不知道如何处理软件发现的股票。他不知道如何正确地交易。新手最好是关注一些市场，全部学习，然后专心交易。
You are better off limiting yourself to as many markets as you can realistically follow each day。 Professionals study their markets daily to detect transitions from sleepy trading ranges to new trends。 The best time to profit from a trend is before it bees overpriced and volatile。
你最好把市场的数量限制在你每天能观察的数量上。专业人士每天观察市场，以发现从横盘到趋势的转机。最好的兑现利润的机会是超买和波动时。
Markets that make headlines tend to be overpriced and volatile。 If you read an article on the front page of a financial newspaper about a bull market in biotech stocks or see a report on the evening news about the high price of coffee； those trends are probably nearer the end than the beginning； and buying biotech stocks or coffee futures is probably very dangerous。
上报纸头条的商品一般都是超买的，波动大的。如果你看财经报纸，在首页看到一个生物科技公司股票大涨，或一个晚间新闻说咖啡的价格涨的高，这些趋势基本上已经到了末期了，此时买入生物科技股票或咖啡期货一般是危险的。
To understand a person or a group； it pays to know what they want and what they fear。 Journalists and editors most fear making a mistake that will make them look foolish。 They report trends only after anyone can see them because that way there is no mistake。 Even if they knew how to catch trends early； which they don’t； they wouldn’t dare print their findings for fear of being wrong and appearing ignorant。 Traders aren’t afraid of mistakes as long as they use money management； but journalists cannot afford such risks。 By the time they write up a trend； it has been going on for a while； volatility is high； risk management is difficult； and a major reversal is probably in the cards。
要了解一个人或一个集团，需要知道他们想什么，怕什么。记者和编辑害怕犯错，让他们看起来很傻。当所有人都看见一个趋势时，他们才会报道这个趋势，这样他们不会犯错。他们不知道趋势，即使他们知道如何提前抓住趋势，他们也不敢印刷，他们害怕犯错，害怕被人说是无知。交易者只要使用资金管理，是不害怕犯错的，但是记者无法承受这个风险。当他们开始报道趋势时，趋势早就开始了，波动厉害，很难控制风险，很有可能要反转。
Should you trade stocks or futures； currencies or options？ Options are rough for beginners； who should learn to trade the underlying securities first； whether stocks or futures。 People outside the United States are often drawn to currencies； forgetting that those are truly global markets； and when you trade them； you go against banks that have traders in all time zones。 The choice between stocks or futures is seldom made on a rational basis。 Trading stocks seems more respectable； while futures have more of a swashbuckling reputation。 Futures get their wild image from their enormous leverage。 If you scrupulously observe money management rules； they bee much safer and less nerve…racking。
你应该交易哪个，股票，期货，外汇，期权？期权对新手来说很难，他应该交易对应的证券，股票或期货。美国以外的人喜欢外汇，外汇是真正的全球市场，当你交易时，你在和银行交手，银行在全球都有操盘手。股票看起来很好，期货有恃强凌弱的名声。期货靠杠杆出名。如果你很懂资金管理，期货就会变得安全和从容的。
Stocks
股票
Stocks tend to move more slowly than futures； thus reducing risks for beginners； especially those who avoid margin。 It is one of the mysteries of markets that cash traders are more likely to win； and margin traders to lose。 Why？ Interest rates on margin loans are a serious expense； raising a barrier to winning； but there’s more。 People who buy stocks for cash tend to feel more relaxed； buying as much or as little as they want。 Margin traders are more likely to feel stressed。 An anxious trader is a troubled trader。 It is better to buy only what you can afford； polish your skills； and the money will follow。
股票一般比期货动的慢，这样就降低了新手的风险，尤其是对于不使用保证金的人。市场的神秘就是用现金交易的人一般会赢，用保证金交易的会输。为什么？保证金借款利息很高，成为赢钱的障碍，但还有其它原因。人们用现金买股票一般很轻松，想买多少就买多少。用保证金的交易者一般压力大。紧张的交易者是有麻烦的交易者。最好是有多少钱买多少，加强技术，钱就来了。
The sheer number of stocks drives people to distraction。 Beginners throw their arms in the air and beg for a list of stocks to follow。 A disciplined trader makes several choices that help him concentrate。 He begins by selecting an industry group or groups and then zeros in on individual stocks。
股票让人们充满想象。新手双手向天祈祷给他一些消息股。有纪律的交易者通过几个选择以使自己聚焦。他先选择一些工业股或股票池，然后单独研究。
A beginner should start with one or two groups； an intermediate trader can go up to four or five； and an expert knows how many he can handle。 Chances are； he sticks to the few groups he knows well。 Begin by choosing a group that you think has a great future or one in which you have a personal interest。 For example； you may decide to concentrate on biotechnology because of its promise or the hospitality industry because that’s where you work。
新手应该选择1�
