走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第48章
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e inertia is likely to drive the market to retest or exceed its low。
当MACD柱上涨到新的顶峰，它表明多头热情的爆发。即使多头停下来喘口气，上涨的惯性太大，也会在休息后继续上涨。当MACD柱跌到了新低，它表明空头超级强。即使空头搞了一个反弹，下跌的惯性还会继续推动市场再次测试或超过新低。
MACD…Histogram works like headlights on a car … it lights up a stretch of the road ahead。 It doesn’t show you the entire way home； but lets you see far enough so that driving at a normal speed you can prepare for the twists and turns ahead。
MACD柱就像汽车的头灯——照亮了前面的路。它不会指明所有回家的路，但是让你看的远，这样只要你的速度正常，你就可以防止突然转弯。
Force Index
力量指数
Force Index is an oscillator developed by this author and first described in Trading for a Living。 The decision to reveal Force Index was one of the hardest in writing that book。 I felt reluctant to disclose my private weapon but remembered how resentful I used to feel while reading books by authors who wrote； in so many words； “Now； of course； you wouldn’t expect me to tell you everything；” I decided I would write either everything or nothing； and describe Force Index。
力量指数是一个振荡指标，是我发明的，第一次公布在《以交易为生》。在写那本书的时候，做了艰难的决定才公布这个指标。我很不想公布自己的武器，但是过去在读书时，我发现很多作者都喜欢说：“当然了，你不能指望我把所有东西都告诉你。”，当时我就生气。所以我做了决定，要么全部写，要么就不写，我决定写力量指数。
The disclosure did me no harm。 Force Index continues to work for me as well as it did before。 Very few software panies have included it in their systems； and its behavior on my charts hasn’t changed。 This reminds me of a good friend with whom I served on a ship。 He was the biggest smuggler I ever met； but he never hid anything far away。 Sometimes he’d put the contraband right on his desk； under the noses of customs officers。 Leaving a secret in the open can be the best way of hiding it。
这个说明并不会伤害我。力量指数就像过去一样在为我工作。很少有公司在它们的系统里加入这个指数，它的表现在我的图表里没有改变。这让我想起了我在船上打工时的一个好朋友。他是我遇见的最大的走私犯，但是他从不隐藏什么。有时海关人员在场，他也把走私品放在桌上。公布秘密就是最好的隐藏秘密。
Force Index helps identify turning points in any market by tying together three essential pieces of information … the direction of price movement； its extent； and volume。 Price represents the consensus of value among market participants。 Volume reflects their level of mitment； financial as well as emotional。 Price reflects what people think； and volume what they feel。 Force Index links mass opinion with mass emotion by asking three questions： Is the price going up or down？ How big is the change？ How much volume did it take to move the price？
力量指数可以在任何市场帮助确认反转点，它同时运用3个关键的信息——价格波动的方向，波动的幅度和成交量。价格代表了市场参与者对价值的一致认同。成交量代表了他们决心大小，既是金钱上的，也是情绪上的。价格反映了人们的想法，计算他们的感觉。力量指数利用3个问题来联系大众的思想和情绪。这3个问题是，价格是涨还是跌？变化有多大？需要多大的成交量才能改变价格？
It is very useful to measure the force of a move because strong moves are more likely to continue than weak ones。 Divergences between peaks and bottoms of prices and Force Index help nail important turning points。 Spikes of Force Index identify zones of mass hysteria； where trends bee exhausted。 Here is the Force Index formula：
计算波动的力量是很有用的，因为大波动总是比小波动能持续下去。价格顶低和力量指数的背离能帮助找到重要的反转点。力量指数的针能确认大众的疯狂区域，那时趋势开始枯竭。下面是力量指数的公式：
Force Index = （Closetoday … Closeyesterday） · Volumetoday
力量指数＝（今天的收盘价－昨天的收盘价）×今天的成交量
If the market closes higher today than yesterday； Force Index is positive； and if it closes lower； Force Index is negative。 The greater the spread between today’s and yesterday’s closes； the greater the force。 The higher the volume； the more forceful the move。
如果今天的收盘价比昨天高，力量指数是正的，如果比昨天低，力量指数是负的。差值越大，力量越大。成交量越大，波动越强。
Force Index is greater when the market moves far on high volume and lesser when the market moves a short distance on thin volume。 When the market closes unchanged； Force Index equals zero。
当波动大，成交量高时，力量指数就大；当波动小，成交量小时，力量指数就小。如果市场的收盘价不变，力量指数就是零。
Smooth Is Better We can plot Force Index as a histogram； with positive readings above the zero line and negative readings below。 The raw Force Index looks very jagged； up one day； down the next。 It works better if we smooth it with an exponential moving average and plot it as a line。
平滑比较好 我们可以把力量指数画成柱状图，正数在0轴以上，负数在0轴以下。原始的力量指数看起来像锯齿，涨一天，跌一天。如果我们用指数平滑均线并把它画成线，那么就更好用了。
If we smooth Force Index with a long…term EMA of 13 days or longer； it will measure long…term shifts in the balance of power between bulls and bears。 To help pinpoint entries and exits； we should smooth Force Index with a very short moving average； such as a two…day EMA。
如果我们用13日或者更长的均线来平滑力量指数，它可以计算长期多头和空头的力量均衡。为了帮助找到进场点和出场点，我们应该用很短的均线来平滑力量指数，比如2日均线。
When the trend of our stock or future is up and the two…day EMA of Force Index declines below zero； it gives a buy signal。 When the trend is down and the two…day EMA of Force Index rallies above zero； it gives a sell signal。
当股票或期货的趋势是上涨的，2日均线力量指数下跌到0以下，它给出了买入信号。当趋势是下跌的，2日均线力量指数上涨到0以上，它给出了卖出信号。
The key to using a short…term Force Index is to bine it with a trend… following indicator。 For example； when the 22…day EMA of price is up and the two…day EMA of Force Index bees negative； it reveals a short…term splash of bearishness within an uptrend； a buying opportunity。 Once long； you have several exit strategies。 If you’re very short…term oriented； sell the day after Force Index turns positive； but if your time horizon is wider； hold until prices hit their channel line or the EMA turns flat。
使用力量指数的关键是配合趋势跟踪指标。比如，当22日均线的价格上涨，2日均线力量指数变成负数，它表明了在上涨时多头的崩溃，是买入时机。一旦做多，你要有几个出场策略。如果你是做短线，当力量指数变正数是卖掉，但是如果你的持有时间长，当价格碰到通道线再卖，或者是均线走平时卖。
Figure 5。11 Force Index … Two…Day EMA
图5。11 力量指数——2日均线
Spikes of a short…term； two…bar Force Index mark areas where trends exhaust themselves。 The downward spike in area A showed that the move from 56 to 43 was at its end。 Curiously enough； it was immediately followed by an upward spike in area B。 This pattern of two adjacent spikes； pointing in opposite directions； shows a great deal of confusion in the markets and is usually followed by a period of flat prices。 GE remained flat for almost two months following those two opposing spikes。
短期的指针，力量指数的2日线表明了趋势在哪里。区域A的下跌指针表明从56到43的下跌结束了。奇怪地，区域B的指针立刻出现了。这种模式，相邻的2个指针，指着相反的方向，表明市场很混乱，通常后面就是横盘。在2个指针之后，通用电子股票差不多横盘了2个月。
Technical patterns confirm one another when they give similar messages。 The downward spike in area C showed that the downtrend was being exhausted。 That bullish signal was followed by a bullish divergence between prices and Force Index； which traced a series of higher bottoms while prices tried to grind lower。 For fans of classical charting； there was a “reverse head…and…shoulders” pattern。 Finally； there was a kangaroo tail at the very low。 It looks as if GE keeps ringing a bell and telling us that the decline is over； it is ready to go up！ In area D； half…way through the rise from 37 to 53； Force Index starts tracing a bearish divergence； warning that bulls are losing power。 When the EMA follows this up by turning down in May； the bullish game is over。 It is the last good chance to take profits and position short。
当不同的技术模式发出相似的信息时，它们会互相确认。C区的指针表明下跌快到头了。这个多头信号后是价格和力量指数的看涨背离，当价格下跌时，跟踪到了一系列更高的底部。对于经典的画图迷来说，这是头肩顶反转模�
