走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第44章
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What Markets to Trade？ Channels can help us decide which stocks or futures to trade and which to leave alone。 A stock may have great fundamentals or beautiful technical signals； but measure its channel before you put on a trade。 It’ll show you whether the swings are wide enough to be worth trading。
交易什么市场？通道会告诉我们选择什么股票或期货，以及放弃什么市场。一只股票也许有很好的基本面或漂亮的技术信号，但是要在交易前计算它的通道。它会告诉你这个波动是否足够大，是否值得交易。
You may look at a volatile stock whose channel height is 30 points。 If you are an A trader； you should be able to get 30％； or 9 points； out of a trade。 That will be more than enough to pay missions； cover slippage； and leave you with profits。 On the other hand； if you look at an inexpensive stock whose channel is only 5 points high； then an A trader would be shooting for a paltry 1。5…point gain。 That would leave you with next to nothing after missions and slippage … leave that stock alone； no matter how good it looks。
也许你会看着波动的股票，它的通道是30点。如果你是交易者，你交易时应该得到30％，或是9点。这样才会在支付佣金，弥补滑点亏损以后有利润。另外，如果你看见昂贵的股票，它的通道只有5点，那么交易者只能得到微薄的1。5点收益。如果去掉佣金和滑点亏损，你什么都没得到——放弃那样的股票，不管看起来多么好。
What if your performance slips a bit or the market throws you a curve？ What if you earn only a C and take only 10％ out of a channel？ The first stock； with its 30…point channel； will return 3 points profit … enough to make some money after expenses。 The stock with a 5…point channel will return only half a point； and missions and slippage may push you into negative territory！ Beginners are often seduced by low…priced stocks with strong technical patterns。 They cannot understand why they keep losing money。 When there is no room for the stock to swing； a trader can’t win。
如果你的成绩下降，或者是市场陷害你，怎么办？如果你的成绩是C，你只赚到了通道的10％，怎么办？第一只股票，通道是30点，会返回3点的利润——去掉费用，还是有足够的利润。股票的通道只有5个点，它的回报是半个点，佣金和滑点亏损能把你搞成亏损！新手特别喜欢有强烈技术模式，同时又便宜的股票。他们不明白自己为何总是亏钱。如果股票没有波动的空间，交易者就无法赢。
A good technical analyst who was slowly losing money called me for a consultation。 When I asked him to fax me his charts； he showed 10 and 15 stocks whose channels were only 2 to 4 tall。 There was simply no room for price swings； while missions； slippage； and expenses continued to chip away at his equity。 If you’re going to support yourself by fishing； find a channel where the fish are big enough。
一个技术派的人，总是在慢慢亏钱，他打电话给我，请我做顾问辅导。当我叫他把图表传真给我时，他传给我的股票是10元，15元的，通道仅仅是2——4元的空间。这根本没有波动的空间，而且佣金，滑点亏损和费用都会吃掉他的资金。如果你想去捕鱼，最好找个有大鱼的地方。
Once you bee interested in a new stock； draw a channel to see whether it’s wide enough to trade。 We like to think of ourselves as A traders and all…around A people； but what if you pull only a C trade？ If you take only 10 percent out of this channel； will it be worth trading？ Beginning traders should leave alone any stock whose channel is narrower than 10 points； meaning that a C trader can take one point out of it。
一旦你对一个新股票产生了兴趣，画一个通道，看看是否足够大。我们喜欢把自己想成A交易者，如果我们得分仅仅是C，该怎么办？如果你只赚了通道的10％，这值得交易吗？新手应该放弃通道小于10点的股票，这意味着C交易者赚不到钱。
A few traders said to me it was OK to trade stocks with narrrow channels； as long as one increased trading size。 They think that trading 10；000 shares in a three…point channel is the same as trading 1；000 shares in a 30…point channel； but it is not； because the ratio of slippage to channel is much higher in narrow channels； raising the external barrier to victory。
个别交易者对我说，可以交易通道很窄的股票，只要交易仓位增大就行了。他们以为交易通道为3点的股票10000股和交易通道为30点的股票1000股，道理是一样的。但错了，因为滑点亏损的比例在窄通道太高了，增加了取胜的障碍。
Low…priced stocks with slender channels can make good investments。 Think of Peter Lynch； a famous money manager； looking for his elusive 10…bagger； a stock that goes up 10…fold。 A 5 stock is much more likely to rise to 50 than an 80 stock to rally to 800。 But those are investments； not trades。 As a trader； you are looking to take advantage of short…term swings。 That is why you should not waste your energy on any stock whose channel is narrow。
低价，通道很窄的股票可以成为好的投资对象。想想彼得·林奇，著名的基金经理，他说到了10垒打，要找能涨10倍的股票。一只5元的股票涨到50元的概率比80元的股票涨到800元的概率大。但那是投资，不是交易。作为交易者，你要找短期波动的优势。这就是不要浪费精力找通道窄的股票的原因。
The Rewards of Day…Trading Day…trading seems deceptively easy； and beginners flock to it like moths to a flame。 Amateurs look at intraday charts and see strong rallies and steep declines。 It looks like the money is there for the picking by any sharp…witted individual with a puter； a modem； and a live data feed。 Day…trading firms make fortunes in missions。 They promote day…trading because they need to replace the great majority of customers who flame out。 The firms hide customer statistics from the public； but in the year 2000 state regulators in Massachusetts subpoenaed records which showed that after 6 months only 16％ of day…traders made money。
日内交易的回报 日内交易看起来很轻松，新手飞蛾扑火般地做日内交易。业余选手看着日线图，发现了强烈的上涨和下跌。看样子只要聪明的人准备好了电脑，调制解调器和即时波动，那么就可以捡钱了。日内交易做市商靠佣金致富。他们宣扬日内交易是因为他们需要新的客户来代替已经亏损的客户。做市商总是向大众隐瞒统计数据，2000年马萨诸赛州管理层的传唤记录说明，在半年内，只有16％的日内交易者赚钱了。
There is an old Russian saying： “your elbow is near； yet you can’t bite it。” Try it now … stretch your neck； bend your arm； go for it。 So near； yet so far。 It’s the same with day…trading … the money is right in front of your face； yet you keep missing it by a few ticks。 Why do so many people lose so much money day…trading？ There is simply not enough height in intraday channels to make profits。 Using channels to select trades sends a powerful message to day…traders。
有一句俄罗斯的古老说法：“你的手肘很近，但你咬不到它。”现在试试吧，伸长颈子，弯着胳膊，去咬手肘。很近，但又是那么远。日内交易就是如此——钱就在你面前，但是它跳了几个基点，你就错过它了。为什么如此多的人做日内交易亏了很多钱？那仅仅是因为日线的通道太窄，不容易赚钱。利用通道选择交易机会，对日内交易者来说是重要信息。
Look at a few popular actively traded stocks … YHOO； AMZN； and AOL are in the forefront of public attention on the day I write this。 The figures are likely to change by the time you read this book； but today I get the following numbers for channel heights on their daily and five…minute charts：
看看几个交易活跃的股票——雅虎，亚马逊和美国在线，在我写这句话的时候，这些股票都在吸引大众的注意力。当你读本书时，数据可能已经变化了，但是现在我拿到了它们的日线和5分钟线通道的高度：
Daily channel
A…level trader （30％）
C…level trader （10％）
Five…minute channel
A…level trader （30％）
C…level trader （10％）
AOL
20
6
2
3
0。9
0。3
AMZN
21
6。3
2。1
3
0。9
0。3
YHOO
54
16。2
5。4
7
2。1
0。7
日线通道
A水平
C水平
5分钟通道
A水平
C水平
美国在线
20
6
2
3
0。9
0。3
亚马逊
21
6。3
2。1
3
0。9
0。3
雅虎
54
16。2
5。4
7
2。1
0。7
A swing trader who uses daily charts to buy and hold for a few days can do very well in these active stocks。 He can really clean up if he is an A…level trader； but even if he is a C trader； taking 10％ out of a channel； he can stay afloat while he’s learning。 A person who day…trades the same stocks must be a straight…A trader in order to survive。 Anything less； and he’ll be eaten alive by slippage； missions； and expenses。
波段交易者可以利用日线图买入，并持有几天，做这样活跃的股票不错。如果他是A水平的交易者，他可以全身而退，如果他是C水平的交易者，只能赚到通道的10％，他可以边学边赚。一个日内交易者，对于同样的股票，他必须达到A水平才会生存。少了任何一点，他就会被滑点亏损，佣金和费用给生吞了。
I can hear a howl of protests from the crowd of vendors who make a good living from day…trading … brokers； software
