list4-第5章

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entirely　sacrificed　in　favour　of　English　free　competition。　Under



such　circumstances　the　Compromise　Bill　of　Henry　Clay　appeared　to　be



the　only　means　of　at　least　partially　preserving　the　protective



system。　By　this　bill　part　of　the　American　manufactures；　viz。　those



of　finer　and　more　expensive　articles；　was　sacrificed　to　foreign



competition；　in　order　to　preserve　another　class　of　them；　viz。　the



manufacture　of　articles　of　a　coarser　and　a　less　expensive



character。　In　the　meantime　all　appearances　seem　to　indicate　that



the　protective　system　in　North　America　in　the　course　of　the　next



few　years　will　again　raise　its　head　and　again　make　new　progress。



However　much　the　English　may　desire　to　lessen　and　mitigate　the



commercial　crises　in　North　America；　however　large　also　may　be　the



amount　of　capital　which　may　pass　over　from　England　to　North　America



in　the　form　of　purchases　of　stock　or　of　loans　or　by　means　of



emigration；　the　existing　and　still　increasing　disproportion　between



the　value　of　the　exports　and　that　of　imports　cannot　possibly　in　the



long　run　be　equalised　by　those　means。　Alarming　commercial　crises；



which　continually　increase　in　their　magnitude；　must　occur；　and　the



Americans　must　at　length　be　led　to　recognise　the　sources　of　the



evil　and　to　determine　to　put　a　stop　to　them。



　　　　It　thus　lies　in　the　very　nature　of　things；　that　the　number　of



the　advocates　of　the　protective　system　must　again　increase；　and



those　of　free　trade　again　diminish。　Hitherto；　the　prices　of



agricultural　produce　have　been　maintained　at　an　unusually　high



level；　owing　to　the　previous　prosperity　of　the　manufactories；



through　the　carrying　out　of　great　public　undertakings；　through　the



demand　for　necessaries　of　life　arising　from　the　great　increase　of



the　production　of　cotton；　also　partially　through　bad　harvests。　One



may；　however；　foresee　with　certainty；　that　these　prices　in　the



course　of　the　next　few　years　will　fall　as　much　below　the　average　as



they　have　hitherto　ranged　above　it。　The　greater　part　of　the



increase　of　American　capital　has　since　the　passing　of　the



Compromise　Bill　been　devoted　to　agriculture；　and　is　only　now



beginning　to　become　productive。　While　thus　agricultural　production



has　unusually　increased；　on　the　other　hand　the　demand　for　it　must



unusually　diminish。　Firstly；　because　public　works　are　no　more　being



undertaken　to　the　same　extent；　secondly；　because　the　manufacturing



population　in　consequence　of　foreign　competition　can　no　more



increase　to　an　important　extent；　and　thirdly；　because　the



production　of　cotton　so　greatly　exceeds　the　consumption　that　the



cotton　planters　will　be　compelled；　owing　to　the　low　prices　of



cotton；　to　produce　for　themselves　those　necessaries　of　life　which



they　have　hitherto　procured　from　the　Middle　and　Western　States。　If



in　addition　rich　harvests　occur；　then　the　Middle　and　Western　States



will　again　suffer　from　an　excess　of　produce；　as　they　did　before　the



tariff　of　1828。　But　the　same　causes　must　again　produce　the　same



results；　viz。　the　agriculturists　of　the　Middle　and　Western　States



must　again　arrive　at　the　conviction；　that　the　demand　for



agricultural　produce　can　only　be　increased　by　the　increase　of　the



manufacturing　population　of　the　country；　and　that　that　increase　can



only　be　brought　about　by　an　extension　of　the　protective　system。



While　in　this　manner　the　partisans　of　protection　will　daily



increase　in　number　and　influence；　the　opposite　party　will　diminish



in　like　proportion　until　the　cotton　planters　under　such　altered



circumstances　must　necessarily　come　to　the　conviction　that　the



increase　of　the　manufacturing　population　of　the　country　and　the



increase　of　the　demand　for　agricultural　produce　and　raw　materials



both　consist　with　their　own　interests　if　rightly　understood。



　　　　Because；　as　we　have　shown；　the　cotton　planters　and　the



Democrats　in　North　America　were　striving　most　earnestly　of　their



own　accord　to　play　into　the　hands　of　the　commercial　interests　of



England；　no　opportunity　was　offered　at　the　moment　on　this　side　for



Mr　Poulett　Thompson　to　display　his　skill　in　commercial　diplomacy。



　　　　Matters　were　quite　in　another　position　in　France。　There　people



still　steadily　clung　to　the　prohibitive　system。　There　were　indeed



many　State　officials　who　were　disciples　of　theory；　and　also



deputies　who　were　in　favour　of　an　extension　of　commercial　relations



between　England　and　France；　and　the　existing　alliance　with　England



had　also　rendered　this　view　to　a　certain　extent　popular。　But　how　to



attain　that　object；　opinions　were　less　agreed；　and　in　no　respect



were　they　quite　clear。　It　seemed　evident　and　also　indisputable　that



the　high　duties　on　the　foreign　necessaries　of　life　and　raw



materials；　and　the　exclusion　of　English　coal　and　pig…iron；　operated



very　disadvantageously　to　French　industry；　and　that　an　increase　in



the　exports　of　wines；　brandy；　and　silk　fabrics　would　be　extremely



advantageous　to　France。



　　　　In　general；　people　confined　themselves　to　universal　declamation



against　the　disadvantages　of　the　prohibitive　system。　But　to　attack



this　in　special　cases　did　not　appear　at　the　time　to　be　at　all



advisable。　For　the　Government　of　July　had　their　strongest



supporters　among　the　rich　bourgeoisie；　who　for　the　most　part　were



interested　in　the　great　manufacturing　undertakings。



　　　　Under　these　circumstances　Mr　Poulett　Thompson　formed　a　plan　of



operations　which　does　all　honour　to　his　breadth　of　thought　and



diplomatic　adroitness。　He　sent　to　France　a　man　thoroughly　versed　in



commerce　and　industry　and　in　the　commercial　policy　of　France；　well



known　for　his　'liberal　sentiments'　a　learned　man　and　a　very



accomplished　writer；　Dr　Bowring；　who　travelled　through　the　whole　of



France；　and　subsequently　through　Switzerland　also；　to　gather　on　the



spot　materials　for　arguments　against　the　prohibitive　system　and　in



favour　of　free　trade。　Dr　Bowring　accomplished　this　task　with　his



accustomed　ability　and　adroitness。　Especially　he　clearly　indicated



the　before…mentioned　advantages　of　a　freer　commercial　intercourse



between　the　two　countries　in　respect　of　coal；　pig…iron；　wines；　and



brandies。　In　the　report　which　he　published；　he　chiefly　confined　his



arguments　to　these　articles；　in　reference　to　the　other　branches　of



industry　he　only　gave　statistics；　without　committing　himself　to



proofs　or　propositions　how　these　could　be　promoted　by　means　of　free



trade　with　England。



　　　　Dr　Bowring　acted　in　precise　accordance　with　the　instructions



given　to　him　by　Mr　Poulett　Thompson；　which　were　framed　with



uncommon　art　and　subtlety；　and　which　appear　at　the　head　of　his



report。　In　these　Mr　Thompson　makes　use　of　the　most　liberal



expressions。　He　expresses　himself；　with　much　consideration　for　the



French　manufacturing　interests；　on　the　improbability　that　any



important　result　was　to　be　expected　from　the　contemplated



negotiations　with　France。　This　instruction　was　perfectly　adapted



for　calming　the　apprehensions　respecting　the　views　of　England



entertained　by　the　French　woollen　and　cotton　manufacturing



interests　which　had　become　so　powerful。　According　to　Mr　Thompson；



it　would　be　folly　to　ask　for　important　concessions　respecting



these。



　　　　On　the　other　hand；　he　gives　a　hint　how　the　object　might　more



easily　be　attained　in　respect　of　'less　important　articles。'　These



less　important　articles　are　certainly　not　enumerated　in　the



instruction；　but　the　subsequent　experience　of　France　has　completely



brought　to　light　what　Mr　Thompson　meant　by　it；　for　at　the　time　of



the　writing　of　this　instruction　the　exports　of　linen　yarn　and　linen



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