the.world.is.flat-第90章
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leaders who do not embrace a culture of tolerance； change； or innovation； and that；
Johnson noted； surelyhas contributed to lagging economic growth in many Muslim lands。
Here we come again to the coefficient of flatness。 Countries without natural resources
are much more likely； through human evolution； to develop the habits of openness to
new ideas； because it is the only way they can survive and advance。
The good news； though； is that not only does culture matter； but culture can change。
Cultures are not wired into our human DNA。 They are a product of the context…geography；
education level； leadership； and historical experience…of any society。 As those
change； so too can culture。 Japan and Germany went from highly militarized societies
to highlypacifist and staunchly democratic societies in the last fifty years。 Bahrain
was one of the first Arab countries to discover oil。 It was the first Arab country
to run out of oil。 And it was the first Arab country in the Arab Gulf to hold an election
for parliament where women could run and vote。 China during the Cultural Revolution
seemed like a nation in the grip of a culture of ideological madness。 China today
is a synonym for pragmatism。 Muslim Spain was one of the most tolerant societies in
the history of the world。 Muslim Saudi Arabia today is one of the most in
tolerant。 Muslim Spain was a trading and merchant culture where people had to live
by their wits and therefore learned to live well with others； Saudi Arabia today can
get by just selling oil。 Yet right next to Saudi Arabia sits Dubai； an Arab city…state
that has used its petrodollars to build the trading； tourist； service； and computing
center of the Arab Gulf。 Dubai is one of the most tolerant； cosmopolitan places in
the world； with； it often seems； more sushi bars and golf courses than mosques…and
tourists don't even need a visa。 So yes； culture matters； but culture is nested in
contexts； not genes； and as those contexts； and local leaders； change and adapt； so
too can culture。
The Intangible Things
You can tell a lot by just comparing skylines。 Like many Indian Americans； Dinakar
Singh； the hedge fund manager； regularly goes back to India to visit family。 In the
winter of 2004； he went back to New Delhi for a visit。 When I saw him a few months
later； he told me about the moment when he realized why India's economy； as a whole；
still had not taken off as much as it should have…outside of the high…tech sector。
〃I was on the sixth floor of a hotel in New Delhi；〃 he recalled； 〃and when I looked
out the window I could see for miles。 How come？ Because you do not have assured power
in Delhi for elevators； so there are not many tall buildings。〃 No sensible investor
would want to build a tall building in a city where the power could go out at any
moment and you might have to walk up twenty flights of stairs。 The result is more
urban sprawl and an inefficient use of space。 I told Singh that his story reminded
me of a trip I had just taken to Dalian； China。 I had been to Dalian in 1998； and
when I went back in 2004；1 did not recognize the city。 There were so many new buildings；
including modern glass…and…steel towers； that I began to question whether I had
actually visited there in 1998。 Then I added another recollection。 I went to school
in Cairo in the summer of 1974。 The three most prominent buildings in the city then
were the Nile Hilton； the Cairo Tower； and the Egyptian TV build
ing。 Thirty years later； in 2004； they are still the most prominent buildings there；
the Cairo skyline has barely changed。 Whenever I go back to Cairo； I know exactly
where I am。 I visited Mexico City shortly before Dalian； where I had not visited in
five years。 I found it much cleaner than I had remembered； thanks to a citywide
campaign by the mayor。 There were also a few new buildings up； but not as many as
I expected after a decade of NAFTA。 Inside the buildings； though； I found my Mexican
friends a little depressed。 They told me that Mexico had lost its groove…it just
wasn't growing like it had been； and people's self…confidence was waning。
So in Delhi； you can see forever。 In Cairo； the skyline seems forever the same。 In
China； if you miss visiting a city for a year； it's like you haven't been there in
forever。 And in Mexico City； just when Mexicans thought they had turned the corner
forever； they ran smack into China； coming the other way and running much faster。
What explains these differences？ We know the basic formula for economic
success…reform wholesale； followed by reform retail； plus good governance； education；
infrastructure； and the ability to glocalize。 What we don't know； though； and what
I would bottle and sell if I did； is the answer to the question of why one country
gets its act together to do all these things in a sustained manner and why another
one doesn't。 Why does one country's skyline change overnight and another's doesn't
change over half a century？ The only answer I have been able to find is something
that cannot be defined： I call it the intangible things。 These are primarily two
qualities： a society's ability and willingness to pull together and sacrifice for
the sake of economic development and the presence in a society of leaders with the
vision to see what needs to be done in terms of development and the willingness to
use power to push for change rather than to enrich themselves and preserve the status
quo。 Some countries （such as Korea and Taiwan） seem to be able to focus their energies
on the priority of economic development； and others （such as Egypt and Syria） get
distracted by ideology or local feuds。 Some countries have leaders who use their time
in office to try to drive modernization rather than personally enrich themselves。
And some countries simply have venal elites； who use their time in office to line
their pockets
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and then invest those riches in Swiss real estate。 Why India had leaders who built
institutes of technology and Pakistan had leaders who did not is a product of history；
geography； and culture that I can only summarize as one of those intangible things。
But even though these intangibles are not easily measured； they really do matter。
The best way I know to illustrate this is by comparing Mexico and China。 Mexico； on
paper； seemed perfectly positioned to thrive in a flat world。 It was right next door
to the biggest； most powerful economy in the world。 It signed a free…trade agreement
with the United States and Canada in the 1990s and was poised to be a springboard
to Latin America for both these huge economies。 And it had a valuable natural resource
in oil； which accountedfor more than a third ofgovernment income。 China； by contrast；
was thousands of miles away； burdened by overpopulation； with few natural resources；
with its best labor crowded onto a coastal plain； and with a burdensome debt legacy
from fifty years of Communist rule。 Ten years ago； if you took the names off these
two countries andjust gave someone their profiles； he surely would have bet on Mexico。
And yet China has replaced Mexico as the second…largest exporter of goods into the
United States。 And there is a general sense； even among Mexicans； that even though
China is thousands of miles away from America； it is growing closer to America
economically； while Mexico； right on America's border； is becoming thousands of miles
away。
I am by no means writing Mexico off。 Mexico； in the fullness of time； may turn out
to be the slow…but…sure tortoise to China's hare。 China still has a huge political
transition to get through； which could derail it at any moment。 Moreover； Mexico has
many entrepreneurs who are as Chinese as the most entrepreneurial Chinese。 Mexico
would not have exported 138 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2003 if
that were not the case。 And you have many rural Chinese who are no more advanced or
productive than rural Mexicans。 But on balance； when you add it all up； the fact is
that China has become the hare and Mexico has not； even though Mexico seemed to start
with so many more natural advanta
