the.world.is.flat-第74章
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No； we cannot； and the effects are starting to show。 According to the National Science
Board； the percentage of scientific papers written by Americans has fallen 10 percent
since 1992。 The percentage of American papers published in the top physics journal；
Physical Review； has fallen from 61 percent to 29 percent since 1983。 And now we are
starting to see a surge in patents awarded to Asian countries。 From 1980 to 2003；
Japan's share of world industrial patents rose from 12 percent to 21 percent； and
Taiwan's from 0 percent to 3 percent。 By contrast； the U。S。 share of patents has fallen
from 60 percent to 52 percent since 1980。
Any honest analysis of this problem should note that there are some skeptics who
believe that the sky is not falling and that scientists and the technology industry
might be hyping some of this data； just to get more funding。 A May 10； 2004； article
in the San Francisco Chronicle quoted Daniel S。 Greenberg； former news editor of the
journal Science and author of the book Science； Money and Politics； who argues that
〃inside…the…Beltway science （lobbying） has always been insatiable。 If you double the
NIH （National Institutes of Health） budget in five years （as recently happened）；
they're （still） screaming their heads off： 'We need more money。'〃 Greenberg also
questioned the science lobbyists' interpretation of a number of statistics。
Quoting Greenberg； the Chronicle said； 〃To put scientific publishing trends in
context。 。 。 it's important to look not only at overall percentiles but also at the
actual numbers of published papers。 At first； it may sound startling to hear that
China quadrupled its scientific publication rate between 1986 and 1999。 But it sounds
somewhat less startling if one real
izes that the actual number of Chinese papers published rose from 2；911 to 11；675。
By comparison； close to a third of all the world's scientific papers were published
by Americans…163；526 out of 528；643。 In other words； China； a nation with almost four
times the population of the United States； published （as of 1999） only one…fourteenth
as many scientific papers as the United States。〃
While I think a dose of skepticism is always in order； I also think the skeptics would
be wise to pay more heed to the flattening of the world and how quickly some of these
trends could change。 It is why I favor Shirley Ann Jackson's approach： The sky is
not falling today； but it might be in fifteen or twenty years if we don't change our
ways； and all signs are that we are not changing； especially in our public schools。
Help is not on the way。 The American education system from kindergarten through
twelfth grade just is not stimulating enough young people to want to go into science；
math； and engineering。 My wife teaches first…grade reading in a local public school；
so she gets Education Week； which is read by educators all over America。 One day she
pointed out an article （July 28； 2004） headlined； 〃Immigrants' Children Inhabit the
Top Ranks of Math； Science Meets。〃
It went on to say； 〃Research conducted by the National Foundation for American Policy
shows that 60 percent of the nation's top science students and 65 percent of the top
mathematics students are children of recent immigrants； according to an analysis of
award winners in three scholastic competitions。 。 。 the Intel Science Talent Search；
the U。S。 team for the International Mathematical Olympiad； and theU。S。 Physics Team。〃
The study's author attributed the immigrant students' success 〃partly to their
parents' insistence that they manage study time wisely；〃 Education Week said。 〃Many
immigrant parents also encouraged their children to pursue mathematics and science
interests； believing those skills would lead to strong career opportunities and
insulate them from bias and lack of connections in the workplace 。。。 A strong
percentage of the students surveyed had parents who arrived in the United States on
H…1B visas； reserved for professional workers。 U。S。 policymakers who back overly
restrictive immigration policies do so at the risk of cutting off a steady infusion
of technological and scientific skill；〃 said the study's au271
thor； Stuart Anderson； the executive director of the foundation。 The article quoted
Andrei Munteanu； eighteen； a finalist for the 2004 Intel competition； whose parents
had moved from Romania to the United States five years earlier。 Munteanu started
American school in the seventh grade； which he found a breeze compared to his Romanian
school。 〃The math and science classes ＇covered the same subject matter＇ I was taking
in Romania 。 。 。 when I was in fourth grade；〃 he said。
For now； the United States still excels at teaching science and engineering at the
graduate level； and also in university…based research。 But as the Chinese get more
feeder stock coming up through their improving high schools and universities； 〃they
will get to the same level as us after a decade；〃 said Intel chairman Barrett。 〃We
are not graduating the volume； we do not have a lock on the infrastructure； we do
not have a lock on the new ideas； and we are either flatlining； or in real dollars
cutting back； our investments in physical science。〃
Every four years the United States takes part in the Trends in International
Mathematics and Science Study； which assesses students after fourth grade and eighth
grade。 Altogether； the most recent study involved roughly a half million students
from forty…one countries and the use of thirty languages； making it the largest and
most comprehensive international study of education that has ever been undertaken。
The 2004 results （for tests taken in 2003） showed American students making only
marginal improvements over the 2000 results； which showed the American labor force
to be weaker in science than those of its peer countries。 The Associated Press reported
（December 4；2004） that American eighth…graders had improved their scores in science
and math since 1995； when the test first was given； but their math improvement came
mainly between 1995 and 1999； and not in recent years。 The rising scores of American
eighth…graders in science was an improvement over 1999； and it lifted the United
States to a higher ranking relative to other countries。 The worrying news； though；
was that the scores of American fourth…graders were stagnant； neither improving nor
declining in science or math since 1995。 As a result； they slipped in the international
rankings as other countries made gains。 〃Asian countries are setting the pace in
advanced science and math；〃 Ina Mullis； codirector of the International
272
Study Center at Boston College； which manages the study； told the AP。 〃As one example；
44 percent of eighth…graders in Singapore scored at the most advanced level in math；
as did 38 percent in Taiwan。 Only 7 percent in the United States did。〃 Results from
another international education test also came out in December 2004； from the Program
for International Student Assessment。 It showed that American fifteen…year…olds are
below the international average when it comes to applying math skills to real…life
tasks。
No wonder Johns Hopkins University president Bill Brody remarked to me； 〃Over 60
percent of our graduate students in the sciences are foreign students； and mostly
from Asia。 At one point four years ago all of our graduate students in mathematics
were from the PRC ＇Communist China＇。 I only found out about it because we use them
as ＇teaching assistants＇ and some of them don't speak English all that well。〃 A Johns
Hopkins parent wrote Brody to complain that his son could not understand his calculus
professor because of his heavy Chinese accent and poor English。
No wonder there is not a major company that I interviewed for this book that is not
investing significantly in research and development abroad。 It is not 〃follow the
money。〃 It is 〃follow the brains。〃
〃Science and math are the universal language of technology；〃 said Tracy Koon； Intel's
director of corporate affairs； who oversees the company's efforts to improve science
education。 〃They drive technolo
