the.world.is.flat-第70章
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capacity。 The forces at work are multiple and complex。 They are demographic； political；
economic； cultural； even social。〃 Individually； each of these forces would be
problematic； added Jackson。 In combination； they could be devastating。 〃For the first
time in more than a century； the United States could well find itself falling behind
other countries in the capacity for scientific discovery； innovation and economic
development。〃
The way to avoid being caught in such a storm is to identify the confluence of factors
and to change course…even though right now the sky is blue； the winds are gentle；
and the water seems calm。 But that is not what has been going on in America in recent
years。 We are blithely sailing along； heading straight for the storm； with both
politicians and parents insisting that no dramatic changes or sacrifices are required
now。 After all； look how calm and sunny it is outside； they tell us。 In the fiscal
year 2005 budget passed by the Republican…led Congress in November 2004； the budget
for the National Science Foundation； which is the federal body most responsible for
promoting research and funding more and better science education； was actually cut
by 1。9 percent； or 105 million。 History will show that when America should have been
doubling the NSF funding； its Congress passed a pork…laden budget that actually cut
assistance for science and engineering。
Don't be fooled by the calm。 That's always the time to change course…not when you're
just about to get hit by the typhoon。 We don't have any time to waste in addressing
the 〃dirty little secrets〃 of our education system。
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Dirty Little Secret #1： The Numbers Gap
In the Cold War； one of the deepest causes of American worries was the so…called
missile gap between us and the Soviet Union。 The perfect storm Shirley Ann Jackson
is warning about could best be described as the confluence of three new gaps that
have been slowly emerging to sap America's prowess in science； math； and engineering。
They are the numbers gap； the ambition gap； and the education gap。 Inthe Age of Flatism；
these gaps are what most threaten our standard of living。
Dirty little secret number one is that the generation of scientists and engineers
who were motivated to go into science by the threat of Sputnik in 1957 and the
inspiration of JFK are reaching their retirement years and are not being replaced
in the numbers that they must be if an advanced economy like that of the United States
is to remain at the head of the pack。 According to the National Science Foundation；
half of America's scientists and engineers are forty years or older； and the average
age is steadily rising。
Just take one example…NASA。 An analysis of NASA records conducted by the newspaper
Florida Today （March 7； 2004）； which covers the Kennedy Space Center； showed the
following： Nearly 40 percent of the 18；146 people at NASA are age fifty or older。
Those with twenty years of government service are eligible for early retirement。
Twenty…two percent of NASA workers are fifty…five or older。 NASA employees over sixty
outnumber those under thirty by a ratio of about three to one。 Only 4 percent of NASA
workers are under thirty。 A 2003 Government Accounting Office study concluded that
NASA was having difficulty hiring people with the sufficient science； engineering；
and information…technology skills that are critical to its operations。 Many of these
jobs are reserved for American citizens； because of national security concerns。
Then…NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe testified before Congress in 2002： 〃Our mission
of understanding and protecting our home planet and exploring the universe and
searching for life will not be carried out if we don't have the people to do it。〃
The National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching for the Twenty…first
Century； chaired by the former astronaut and senator John Glenn； found that two…
thirds of the nation's mathematics and science teaching force will retire by 2010。
Traditionally we made up for any shortages of engineers and science faculty by
educating more at home and importing more from abroad。 But both of those remedies
have been stalled of late。
Every two years the National Science Board supervises the collection of a very broad
set of data trends in science and technology in the United States； which it publishes
as Science and Engineering Indicators。 In preparing Indicators 2004； the NSB said；
〃We have observed a troubling decline in the number of U。S。 citizens who are training
to become scientists and engineers； whereas the number of jobs requiring science and
engineering （S&E） training continues to grow。〃 These trends threaten the economic
welfare and security of our country； it said； adding that if the trends identified
in Indicators 2004 continue undeterred； three things will happen： 〃The number of jobs
in the U。S。 economy that require science and engineering training will grow； the
number of U。S。 citizens prepared for those jobs will； at best； be level； and the
availability of people from other countries who have science and engineering training
will decline； either because of limits to entry imposed by U。S。 national security
restrictions or because of intense global competition for people with these skills。〃
The NSB report found that the number of American eighteen…to…twenty…four…year…olds
who receive science degrees has fallen to seventeenth in the world； whereas we ranked
third three decades ago。 It said that of the 2。8 million first university degrees
（what we call bachelor's degrees） in science and engineering granted worldwide in
2003； 1。2 million were earned by Asian students in Asian universities； 830；000 were
granted in Europe； and 400；000 in the United States。 In engineering specifically；
universities in Asian countries now produce eight times as many bachelor's degrees
as the United States。
Moreover； 〃the proportional emphasis on science and engineering is greater in other
nations；〃 noted Shirley Ann Jackson。 Science and engineering degrees now represent
60 percent of all bachelor's degrees earned in China； 33 percent in South Korea； and
41 percent in Taiwan。 By contrast； the percentage of those taking a bachelor's degree
in science
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and engineering in the United States remains at roughly 31 percent。 Factoring out
science degrees； the number of Americans who graduate with just engineering degrees
is 5 percent； as compared to 25 percent in Russia and 46 percent in China； according
to a 2004 report by Trilogy Publications； which represents the national U。S。
engineering professional association。
The United States has always depended on the inventiveness of its people in order
to compete in the world marketplace； said the NSB。 〃Preparation of the S&E workforce
is a vital arena for national competitiveness。 ＇But＇ even if action is taken today
to change these trends； the reversal is 10 to 20 years away。〃 The students entering
the science and engineering workforce with advanced degrees in 2004 decided to take
the necessary math courses to enable this career path when they were in middle school；
up to fourteen years ago； the NSB noted。 The students making that same decision in
middle school today won't complete advanced training for science and engineering
occupations until 2018 or 2020。 〃If action is not taken now to change these trends；
we could reach 2020 and find that the ability of U。S。 research and education
institutions to regenerate has been damaged and that their preeminence has been lost
to other areas of the world；〃 the science board said。
These shortages could not be happening at a worse time…just when the world is going
flat。 〃The number of jobs requiring science and engineering skills in the U。S。 labor
force；〃 the NSB said； 〃is growing almost 5 percent per year。 In comparison； the rest
of the labor force is growing at just over 1 percent。 Before September 11； 2001； the
Bureau of Labor Statistics （BLS） projected that science and engineering occupations
would increase at three times the rate of all occupations。〃 Unfortunately； the NSB
reported
