the.world.is.flat-第55章
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worldwide； eBay went from twelve hundred employees in early 2000 to sixty…three
hundred by 2004； all in the period when globalization was supposed to be 〃over。〃
Between 2000 and 2004； total global Internet usage grew 125 percent； including 186
percent in Africa； 209 percent in Latin America； 124 percent in Europe； and 105 percent
in North America； according to Nielsen/ NetRatings。 Yes； globalization sure ended；
all right。
It was not just the dot…com bust and all the hot air surrounding it that obscured
all this from view。 There were two other big clouds that moved in。 The biggest； of
course； was 9/11； which was a profound shock to the American body politic。 Given 9/11；
and the Afghanistan and Iraq invasions that followed； it's not surprising that the
triple convergence was lost in the fog of war and the chatter of cable television。
Finally； there was the Enron corporate governance scandal； quickly followed by
blowups at Tyco and WorldCom…which all sent CEOs and the Bush administration running
for cover。 CEOs； with some justification； became guilty until proven innocent of
boardroom shenanigans； and even the slavishly probusiness； pro…CEO Bush
administration was wary of appearing…in public…to be overly solicitous of the
concerns of big business。 In the spring of 2004；1 met with the head of one of America's
biggest technology companies； who had come to Washington to lobby for more federal
funding for the National Science Foundation to help nurture a stronger industrial
base for American industry。 I asked him why the administration wasn't convening a
summit of CEOs to highlight this issue； and he just shook his head and said one word：
〃Enron。〃
The result： At the precise moment when the world was being flattened； and the triple
convergence was reshaping the whole global business environment…requiring some very
important adjustments in our own society and that of many other Western developed
nations…American politicians not only were not educating the American public； they
were actively working to make it stupid。 During the 2004 election campaign
we saw the Democrats debating whether NAFTA was a good idea and the Bush White House
putting duct tape over the mouth of N。 Gregory Mankiw； the chairman of the White House
Council of Economic Advisers； and stashing him away in Dick Cheney's basement； because
Mankiw； author of a popular college economics textbook； had dared to speak approvingly
of oursourcing as just the 〃latest manifestation of the gains from trade that
economists have talked about at least since Adam Smith。〃
Mankiw's statement triggered a competition for who could say the most ridiculous thing
in response。 The winner was Speaker of theHouse Dennis Hastert； who said that Mankiw's
〃theory fails a basic test of real economics。〃 And what test was that； Dennis？ Poor
Mankiw was barely heard from again。
For all these reasons； most people missed the triple convergence。 Something really
big was happening； and it was simply not part of public discourse in America or Europe。
Until I visited India in early 2004；1 too was largely ignorant of it； although I was
picking up a few hints that something was brewing。 One of the most thoughtful business
leaders I have come to know over the years is Nobuyuki Idei； the chairman of Sony。
Whenever he speaks； I pay close attention。 We saw each other twice during 2004； and
both times he said something through his heavy Japanese accent that stuck in my ear。
Idei said that a change was under way in the business…technology world that would
be remembered； in time； like 〃the meteor that hit the earth and killed all the
dinosaurs。〃 Fortunately； the cutting…edge global companies knew what was going on
out there； and the best companies were quietly adapting to it so that they would not
be one of those dinosaurs。
As I started researching this book； I felt at times like I was in a Twilight Zone
segment。 I would interview CEOs and technologists from major companies； both
American…based and foreign； and they would describe in their own ways what I came
to call the triple convergence。 But； for all the reasons I explained above； most of
them weren't telling the public or the politicians。 They were either too distracted；
too focused on their own businesses； or too afraid。 It was like they were all 〃pod
people；〃 living in
a parallel universe； who were in on a big secret。 Yes； they all knew the secret…but
nobody wanted to tell the kids。
Well； here's the truth that no one wanted to tell you： The world has been flattened。
As a result of the triple convergence； global collaboration and competition…between
individuals and individuals； companies and individuals； companies and companies； and
companies and customers…have been made cheaper； easier； more friction…free； and more
productive for more people from more corners of the earth than at any time in the
history of the world。
You know 〃the IT revolution〃 that the business press has been touting for the last
twenty years？ Sorry； but that was only the prologue。 The last twenty years were just
about forging； sharpening； and distributing all the new tools with which to
collaborate and connect。 Now the real IT revolution is about to begin； as all the
complementarities between these tools start to really work together to level the
playing field。 One of those who pulled back the curtain and called this moment by
its real name was HP's Carly Fiorina； who in 2004 began to declare in her public
speeches that the dot…com boom and bust were just 〃the end of the beginning。〃 The
last twenty…five years in technology； said Fiorina； then the CEO of HP； have been
just 〃the warm…up act。〃 Now we are going into the main event； she said； 〃and by the
main event； I mean an era in which technology will literally transform every aspect
of business； every aspect of life and every aspect of society。〃
：：：：： FOUR
The Great Sorting Out
The triple convergence is not only going to affect how individuals prepare themselves
for work； how companies compete； and how countries organize their economies and
geopolitics。 Over time； it is going to reshape political identities； recast political
parties； and redefine who is a political actor。 In short； in the wake of this triple
convergence that we have just gone through； we are going to witness what I call 〃the
great sorting out。〃 Because when the world starts to move from a primarily vertical
（command and control） value…creation model to an increasingly horizontal （connect
and collaborate） creation model； it doesn't affect just how business gets done。 It
affects everything…how communities and companies define themselves； where companies
and communities stop and start； how individuals balance their different identities
as consumers； employees； shareholders； and citizens； and what role government has
to play。 All of this is going to have to be sorted out anew。 The most common disease
of the flat world is going to be multiple identity disorder； which is why； if nothing
else； political scientists are going to have a field day with the flat world。 Political
science may turn out to be the biggest growth industry of all in this new era。 Because
as we go through this great sorting out over the next decade； we are going to see
some very strange bedfellows making some very new politics。
I first began thinking about the great sorting out after a conversation with Harvard
University's noted political theorist Michael J。 Sandel。 Sandel startled me slightly
by remarking that the sort of flattening process that I was describing was actually
first identified by Karl Marx
and Friedrich Engels in the Communist Manifesto； published in 1848。 While the
shrinking and flattening of the world that we are seeing today constitute a difference
of degree from what Marx saw happening in his day； said Sandel； it is nevertheless
part of the same historical trend Marx highlighted in his writings on capitalism…the
inexorable march of technology and capital to remove all barriers； boundaries；
frictions； and restraints to global commerce。
〃Marx was one of the first to glimpse the p
