the.world.is.flat-第19章
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each soughtto have its own infrastructure。 And why not？The Internet boom led everyone
to assume that the demand for bandwidth to carry all that Internet traffic would double
every three months…indefinitely。 For about two years that was true。 But then the law
of large numbers started to kick in； and the pace of doubling slowed。 Unfortunately；
the telecom companies weren't paying close attention to the developing mismatch
between demand and reality。 The market was in the grip of an Internet fever； and
companies just kept building more and more capacity。 And the stock market boom meant
money was free！ It was a party！ So every one of these incredibly optimistic scenarios
from every one of these new telecom companies got funded。 In a period of about five
or six years； these telecom companies invested about 1 trillion in wiring the world。
And virtually no one questioned the demand projections。
Few companies got crazier than Global Crossing； one of the companies hired by all
these new telecoms to lay fiber…optic cable for them around the world。 Global Crossing
was founded in 1997 by Gary Winnick and went public the next year。 Robert Annunziata；
who lasted only a year as CEO； had a contract that the Corporate Library's Nell Minow
once
picked as the worst （from the point of view of shareholders） in the United States。
Among other things； it included Annunziata's mother's first…class airfare to visit
him once a month。 It also included a signing bonus of 2 million shares of stock at
10 a share below market。
Henry Schacht； a veteran industrialist now with E。 M。 Warburg； Pincus & Co。； was
brought in by Lucent； the successor of Western Electric； to help manage it through
this crazy period。 He recalled the atmosphere： 〃The telecom deregulation of 1996 was
hugely important。 It allowed competitive local exchange carriers to build their own
capacities and sell in competition with each other and with the Baby Bells。 These
new telecoms went to companies like Global Crossing and had them install fiber
networks for them so they could compete at the transport level with AT&T and MCI；
particularly on overseas traffic 。 。 。 Everyone thought this was a new world； and
it would never stop。 ＇You had＇ competitive firms using free capital； and everyone
thought the pie would expand infinitely。 So ＇each company said；＇ 'I will put my fiber
down before you do； and I will get a bigger share than you。' It was supposed to be
just a vertical growth line； straight up； and we each thought we would get our share；
so everybodybuilt to the max projections and assumed that they would get their share。〃
It turned out that while business…to…business and e…commerce developed as projected；
and a lot of Web sites that no one anticipated exploded…like eBay； Amazon； and
Google…they still devoured only a fraction of the capacity that was being made
available。 So when the dotcom bust came along； there was just way too much fiber…optic
cable out there。 Long…distance phone rates went from 2 a minute to 100。 And the
transmission of data was virtually free。 〃The telecom industry has invested itself
right out of a business；〃 Mike McCue； chief operations officer of Tellme Networks；
a voice…activated Internet service； told CNET News。com in June 2001。 〃They've laid
so much fiber in the ground that they've basically commoditized themselves。 They are
going to get into massive price wars with everyone and it's going to be a disaster。〃
It was a disaster for many of the companies and their investors （Global Crossing filed
for bankruptcy in January 2002； with 12。4 billion in debt）； but it turned out to
be a great boon for consumers。 Just as the na
tional highway system that was built in the 1950s flattened the United States； broke
down regional differences； and made it so much easier for companies to relocate in
lower…wage regions； like the South； because ithad become so much easier to move people
and goods long distances； so the laying of global fiber highways flattened the
developed world。 It helped to break down global regionalism； create a more seamless
global commercial network； and made it simple and almost free to move digitized
labor…service jobs and knowledge work…to lower…cost countries。
（It should be noted； though； that those fiber highways in America tended to stop at
the last mile…before connecting to households。 While a huge amount of long…distance
fiber cable was laid to connect India and America； virtually none of these new U。S。
telecom companies laid any substantial new local loop infrastructure； due to a failure
of the 1996 telecom deregulation act to permit real competition in the local loop
between the cable companies and the telephone companies。 Where the local broadband
did get installed was in office buildings； which were already pretty well served by
the old companies。 So this pushed prices down for businesses…and for Indians who
wanted to get online from Bangalore to do business with those businesses…but it didn't
create the sort of competition that could bring cheap broadband capability to the
American masses in their homes。 That has started happening only more recently。）
The broad overinvestment in fiber cable is a gift that keeps on giving； thanks to
the unique nature of fiber optics。 Unlike other forms of Internet overinvestment；
it was permanent： Once the fiber cables were laid； no one was going to dig them up
and thereby eliminate the overcapacity。 So when the telecom companies went bankrupt；
the banks took them over and then sold their fiber cables for ten cents on the dollar
to new companies； which continued to operate them； which they could do profitably；
having bought them in a fire sale。 But the way fiber cable works is that each cable
has multiple strands of fiber init with a potential capacityto transmit many terabits
of data per second on each strand。 When these fiber cables were originally laid； the
optical switches…the transmitters and receivers…at each end of them could not take
full advantage of the fiber's full capacity。 But every year since then； the optical
switches
70
at each end of that fiber cable have gotten better and better； meaning that more and
more voices and data can be transmitted down each fiber。 So as the switches keep
improving； the capacity of all the already installed fiber cables just keeps growing；
making it cheaper and easier to transmit voices and data every year to any part of
the world。 It is as though we laid down a national highway system where people were
first allowed to drive 50 mph； then 60 mph； then 70 mph； then 80 mph； then eventually
150 mph on the same highways without any fear of accidents。 Only this highway wasn't
just national。 It was international。
〃Every layer of innovation gets built on the next；〃 said Andreessen； who went on from
Netscape to start another high…tech firm； Opsware Inc。 〃And today the most profound
thing to me is the fact that a fourteen…year…old in Romania or Bangalore or the Soviet
Union or Vietnam has all the information； all the tools； all the software easily
available to apply knowledge however they want。 That is why I am sure the next Napster
is going to come out of left field。 As bioscience becomes more computational and less
about wet labs； and as all the genomic data becomes easily available on the Internet；
at some point you will be able to design vaccines on your laptop。〃
I think Andreessen touches on what is unique about the flat world and the era of
Globalization 3。0。 It is going to be driven by groups and individuals； but of a much
more diverse background than those twelve scientists who made up Andreessen's world
when he created Mosaic。 Now we are going to see the real human mosaic emerge…from
all over the world； from left field and right field； from West and East and North
and South…to drive the next generation of innovation。 Indeed； a few days after
Andreessen and I talked； the following headline appeared on the front page of The
New York Times （July 15； 2004）： 〃U。S。 Permits 3 Cancer Drugs from Cuba。〃 The story
went on to say； 〃The federal government is permitting a Califor
