the.world.is.flat-第14章
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controls and bureaucracy;〃 he recalled。 〃Nehru had come to power 'after the end of
British colonial rule' and had a huge country to manage; and no experience of running
a country。 The U。S。 was busy with Europe and Japan and the Marshall Plan。 So Nehru
looked north; across the Himalayas; and sent his team of economists to Moscow。 They
came back and said that this country 'the Soviet Union' was amazing。 They allocate
resources; they give licenses; there is a planning commission that decides everything;
and the country moves。 So we took that model and forgot that we had a private sector 。 。 。
That private sector got put under this wall of regulation。 By 1991; the private sector
was there; but under wraps; and there was mistrust about business。 They made profits!
The entire infrastructure from 1947 to 1991 was government…owned 。 。 。 'The burden
of state ownership' almost bankrupted the country。 We were not able to pay our debts。
As a people; we did not have self…confidence。 Sure; we might have won a couple of
wars with Pakistan; but that did not give the nation confidence。〃
In 1991; with India running out of hard currency; Manmohan Singh; the finance minister
at that time (and now the prime minister); decided that India had to open its economy。
〃Our Berlin Wall fell;〃 said Das; 〃and it was like unleashing a caged tiger。 Trade
controls were abolished。 We were always at 3 percent growth; the so…called Hindu rate
of growth…slow; cautious; and conservative。 To make 'better returns'; you had to go
to America。 Well; three years later 'after the 1991 reforms' we were at 7 percent
rate of growth。 To hell with poverty! Now to make it you could stay in India and become
one of Forbes's richest people in the world 。。。 All the years of socialism and controls
had taken us downhill to
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the point where we had only 1 billion in foreign currency。 Today we have 118
billion 。 。 。 We went from quiet self…confidence to outrageous ambition in a decade。〃
The fall of the Berlin Wall didn't just help flatten the alternatives to free…market
capitalism and unlock enormous pent…up energies for hundreds of millions of people
in places like India; Brazil; China; and the former Soviet Empire。 It also allowed
us to think about the world differently…to see it as more of a seamless whole。 Because
the Berlin Wall was not only blocking our way; it was blocking our sight…our ability
to think about the world as a single market; a single ecosystem; and a single community。
Before 1989; you could have an Eastern policy or a Western policy; but it was hard
to think about having a 〃global〃 policy。 Amartya Sen; the Nobel Prize…winning Indian
economist now teaching at Harvard; once remarked to me that 〃the Berlin Wall was not
only a symbol of keeping people inside East Germany…it was a way of preventing a kind
of global view of our future。 We could not think globally about the world when the
Berlin Wall was there。 We could not think about the world as a whole。〃 There is a
lovely story in Sanskrit; Sen added; about a frog that is born in a well and stays
in the well and lives its entire life in the well。 〃It has a worldview that consists
of the well;〃 he said。 〃That was what the world was like for many people on the planet
before the fall of the wall。 When it fell; it was like the frog in the well was suddenly
able to communicate with frogs in all the other wells。。。 If I celebrate the fall of
the wall; it is because I am convinced of how much we can learn from each other。 Most
knowledge is learning from the other across the border。〃
Yes; the world became a better place to live in after 11/9; because each outbreak
of freedom stimulated another outbreak; and that process in and of itself had a
flattening effect across societies; strengthening those below and weakening those
above。 〃Women's freedom;〃 noted Sen; citing just one example; 〃which promotes women's
literacy; tends to reduce fertility and child mortality and increase the employment
opportunities for women; which then affects the political dialogue and gives women
the opportunity for a greater role in local self…government。〃
Finally; the fall of the wall did not just open the way for more people
to tap into one another's knowledge pools。 It also paved the way for the adoption
of common standards…standards onhow economies should be run; onhow accounting should
be done; on how banking should be conducted; on how PCs should be made; and on how
economics papers should be written。 I discuss this more later; but suffice it to say
here that common standards create a flatter; more level playing field。 To put it
another way; the fall of the wall enhanced the free movement of best practices。 When
an economic or technological standard emerged and proved itself on the world stage;
it was much more quickly adopted after the wall was out of the way。 In Europe alone;
the fall of the wall opened the way for the formation of the European Union and its
expansion from fifteen to twenty…five countries。 That; in combination with the advent
of the euro as a common currency; has created a single economic zone out of a region
once divided by an Iron Curtain。
While the positive effects of the wall coming down were immediately apparent; the
cause of the wall's fall was not so clear。 There was no single cause。 To some degree
the termites just ate away at the foundations of the Soviet Union; which were already
weakened by the system's own internal contradictions and inefficiencies; to some
degree the Reagan administration's military buildup in Europe forced the Kremlin to
bankrupt itself paying for warheads; and to some degree Mikhail Gorbachev's hapless
efforts to reform something that was unreformable brought communism to an end。 But
if I had to point to one factor as first among equals; itwas the information revolution
that began in the early…to mid…1980s。 Totalitarian systems depend on a monopoly of
information and force; and too much information started to slip through the Iron
Curtain; thanks to the spread of fax machines; telephones; and other modern tools
of communication。
A critical mass of IBM PCs; and the Windows operating system that brought them to
life; came together in roughly this same time period that the wall fell; and their
diffusion put the nail in the coffin of communism; because they vastly improved
horizontal communication…to the detriment of the exclusively top…down form that
communism was based upon。 They also greatly enhanced personal information gathering
and personal empowerment。 (Each component of this information revolu
tion was brought about by separate evolutions: The phone network evolved from the
desire of people to talk to each other over long distances。 The fax machine evolved
as a way to transmit written communication over the phone network。 The PC was diffused
by the original killer apps…spreadsheets and word processing。 And Windows evolved
out of the need to make all of this usable; and programmable; by the masses。)
The first IBM PC hit the markets in 1981。 At the same time; many computer scientists
around the world had started using these things called the Internet and e…mail。 The
first version of the Windows operating system shipped in 1985; and the real
breakthrough version that made PCs truly user…friendly…Windows 3。0…shipped on May
22; 1990; only six months after the wall went down。 In this same time period; some
people other than scientists started to discover that if they bought a PC and a dial…up
modem; they could connect their PCs to their telephones and send e…mails through
private Internet service providers…like CompuServe and America Online。
〃The diffusion of personal computers; fax machines; Windows; and dial…up modems
connected to a global telephone network all came together in the late 1980s and early
1990s to create the basic platform that started the global information revolution;〃
argued Craig J。 Mundie; the chief technology officer for Microsoft。 The key was the
melding of them all together into a single interoperable system。 That happened; said
Mundie; once we had in crude form a sta