the.world.is.flat-第116章
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candidates； ensuring that the DPP would not have a majority in parliament。 I believe
the message Taiwanese voters were sending was not that they never want Taiwan to be
independent。 It was that they do not want to upset the status quo right now； which
has been so beneficial to so many Taiwanese。 The voters seemed to understand clearly
how interwoven they had become with the mainland； and they wisely opted to maintain
their de facto independence rather than force de jure independence； which might have
triggered a Chinese invasion and a very uncertain future。
Warning： What I said when I put forth the McDonald's theory； I would repeat even more
strenuously with the Dell Theory： It does not make wars obsolete。 And it does not
guarantee that governments will not engage in wars of choice； even governments that
are part of major supply chains。 To suggest so would be naive。 It guarantees only
that governments whose countries are enmeshed in global supply chains will have
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to think three times； not just twice； about engaging in anything but a war of
self…defense。 And if they choose to go to war anyway； the price they will pay will
be ten times higher than it was a decade ago and probably ten times higher than whatever
the leaders of that country think。 It is one thing to lose your McDonald's。 It's quite
another to fight a war that costs you your place in a twenty…first…century supply
chain that may not come back around for a long time。
While the biggest test case of the Dell Theory is China versus Taiwan； the fact is
that the Dell Theory has already proved itself to some degree in the case of India
and Pakistan； the context in which I first started to think about it。 I happened to
be in India in 2002； when its just…in…time services supply chains ran into some very
old…time geopolitics…and the supply chain won。 In the case of India and Pakistan；
the Dell Theory was working on only one party…India…but it still had a major impact。
India is to the world's knowledge and service supply chain what China and Taiwan are
to the manufacturing ones。 By now readers ofthis book know all thehighlights： General
Electric's biggest research center outside the United States is in Bangalore； with
seventeen hundred Indian engineers； designers； and scientists。 The brain chips for
many brand…name cell phones are designed in Bangalore。 Renting a car from Avis online？
It's managed in Bangalore。 Tracing your lost luggage on Delta or British Airways is
done from Bangalore； and the backroom accounting and computer maintenance for scores
of global firms are done from Bangalore； Mumbai； Chennai； and other major Indian
cities。 Here's what happened： On May 31； 2002； State Department spokesman Richard
Boucher issued a travel advisory saying； 〃We urge American citizens currently in India
to depart the country；〃 because the prospect of a nuclear exchange with Pakistan was
becoming very real。 Both nations were massing troops on their borders； intelligence
reports were suggesting that they both might be dusting off their nuclear warheads；
and CNN was flashing images of people flooding out of India。 The global American firms
that had moved their back rooms and R & D operations to Bangalore were deeply unnerved。
〃I was actually surfing on the Web； and I saw a travel advisory come up on India on
a Friday evening/' said Vivek Paul； president of Wipro； which manages backroom
operations from India of many American multinationals。 〃As soon as I saw that； I said；
'Oh my gosh； every customer that we have is going to have a million questions on this。'
It was the Friday before a long weekend； so over the weekend we at Wipro developed
a fail…safe business continuity plan for all of our customers。〃 While Wipro's
customers were pleased to see how on top of things the company was； many of them were
nevertheless rattled。 This was not in the plan when they decided to outsource
mission…critical research and operations to India。 Said Paul； 〃I had a CIO from one
of our big American clients send me an e…mail saying； 1 am now spending a lot of time
looking for alternative sources to India。 I don't think you want me doing that； and
I don't want to be doing it。' I immediately forwarded his message to the Indian
ambassador in Washington and told him to get it to the right person。〃 Paul would not
tell me what company it was； but I have confirmed through diplomatic sources that
it was United Technologies。 And plenty of others； like American Express and General
Electric； with back rooms in Bangalore； had to have been equally worried。
For many global companies； 〃the main heart of their business is now supported here；〃
said N。 Krishnakumar； president of MindTree； another leading Indian knowledge
outsourcing firm based in Bangalore。 〃It can cause chaos if there is a disruption。〃
While not trying to meddle in foreign affairs； he added； 〃What we explained to our
government； through the Confederation of Indian Industry； is that providing a stable；
predictable operating environment is now the key to India's development。〃 This was
a real education for India's elderly leaders in New Delhi； who had not fully absorbed
how critical India had become to the world's knowledge supply chain。 When you are
managing vital backroom operations for American Express or General Electric or Avis；
or are responsible for tracing all the lost luggage on British Airways or Delta； you
cannot take a month； a week； or even aday off for war without causing major disruptions
for those companies。 Once those companies have made a commitment to outsource business
operations or research to India； they expect it to stay there。 That is a major
commitment。 And if geopolitics
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causes a serious disruption； they will leave； and they will not come back very easily。
When you lose this kind of service trade； you can lose it for good。
〃What ends up happening in the flat world you described；〃 explained Paul； 〃is that
you have only one opportunity to make it right if something ＇goes＇ wrong。 Because
the disadvantage of being in a flat world is that despite all the nice engagements
and stuff and the exit barriers that you have； every customer has multiple options；
and so the sense of responsibility you have is not just out of a desire to do good
by your customers； but also a desire for self…preservation。〃
The Indian government got the message。 Was India's central place in the world's
services supply chain the only factor in getting Prime Minister Vajpayee to tone down
his rhetoric and step back from the brink？ Of course not。 There were other factors；
to be sure…most notably the deterrent effect of Pakistan's own nuclear arsenal。 But
clearly； India's role in global services was an important additional source of
restraint on its behavior； and it was taken into account by New Delhi。 〃I think it
sobered a lot of people；〃 said Jerry Rao； who； as noted earlier； heads the Indian
high…tech trade association。 〃We engaged very seriously； and we tried to make the
point that this was very bad for Indian business。 It was very bad for the Indian
economy 。 。 。 ＇Many people＇ didn't realize till then how suddenly we had become
integrated into the rest of the world。 We are now partners in a twenty…four by seven
by three…sixty…five supply chain。〃
Vivek Kulkami； then information technology secretary for Bangalore's regional
government； told me back in 2002； 〃We don't get involved in politics； but we did bring
to the government's attention the problems the Indian IT industry might face if there
were a war。〃 And this was an altogether new factor for New Delhi to take into
consideration。 〃Ten years ago； ＇a lobby of IT ministers from different Indian states＇
never existed；〃 said Kulkarni。 Now it is one of the most important business lobbies
in India and a coalition that no Indian government can ignore。
〃With all due respect； the McDonald's ＇shutting＇ down doesn't hurt anything；〃 said
Vivek Paul； 〃but if Wipro had to shut down we would af…
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feet the day…to…day operations of many； many companies。〃 No one would answer the
phones in call centers。 Many e…commerce sit
