the.world.is.flat-第112章

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oil　wealth。　China　is　furious　that　Japan　has　outbid　it　in　their　battle　to　determine　
the　route　of　the　pipeline　that　Russia　intends　to　build　to　the　Far　East。〃　At　the　same　


time　it　was　reported　that　a　Chinese　nuclear　submarine　had　accidentally　strayed　into　
Japanese　territorial　waters。　The　Chinese　government　apologized　for　the　〃technical　
error。〃　If　you　believe　that；　I　have　an　oil　well　in　Hawaii　I　would　like　to　sell　you　。。。　
In　2004；　China　began　competing　with　the　United　States　for　oil　exploration　
opportunities　in　Canada　and　Venezuela。　If　China　has　its　way；　it　will　stick　a　straw　
into　Canada　and　Venezuela　and　suck　out　every　drop　of　oil；　which　will　have　the　side　
effect　of　making　America　more　dependent　on　Saudi　Arabia。　
I　interviewed　the　Japanese　manager　of　a　major　U。S。　multinational　that　was　
headquartered　in　Dalian；　in　northeastern　China。　〃China　is　following　the　path　of　Japan　
and　Korea；〃　said　the　executive；　on　the　condition　that　he　and　his　company　not　be　quoted　
by　name；　〃and　the　big　question　is；　Can　the　world　afford　to　have　1。3　billion　people　
following　that　path　and　driving　the　same　cars　and　using　the　same　amount　of　energy？　
So　I　see　the　flattening；　but　the　challenge　of　the　twenty…first　century　is；　Are　we　
going　to　hit　another　oil　crisis？　The　oil　crisis　in　the　1970s　coincided　with　Japan　
and　Europe　rising。　＇There　was　a　time＇　when　the　U。S。　was　the　only　big　consumer　of　oil；　
but　when　Japan　and　Europe　came　in；　OPEC　got　the　power。　But　when　China　and　India　come　
into　being　the　consumers；　it　will　be　a　huge　challenge　that　is　an　order　of　magnitude　
different。　It　is　megapolitics。　The　limits　of　growth　in　the　1970s　were　overcome　with　
technology。　We　got　smarter　than　before；　equipment　became　more　efficient；　and　energy　
consumption　per　head　was　lower。　But　now　＇with　China；　India；　and　Russia　all　coming　
on　strong＇　it　is　multiplied　by　a　factor　of　ten。　There　is　something　

we　really　need　to　be　serious　about。　We　cannot　restrict　China；　＇Russia；＇　and　India。　
They　will　grow　and　they　must　grow。〃　
One　thing　we　will　not　be　able　to　do　is　tell　young　Indians；　Russians；　Poles；　or　Chinese　
that　just　when　they　are　arriving　on　the　leveled　playing　field；　they　have　to　hold　back　
and　consume　less　for　the　greater　global　good。　While　giving　a　talk　to　students　at　the　
Beijing　College　of　Foreign　Affairs；　I　spoke　about　the　most　important　issues　that　could　
threaten　global　stability；　including　the　competition　for　oil　and　other　energy　
resources　that　would　naturally　occur　as　China；　India；　and　the　former　Soviet　Union　
began　to　consume　more　oil。　No　sooner　did　I　finish　than　a　young　Chinese　woman　student　
shot　up　her　hand　and　asked　basically　the　following　question：　〃Why　should　China　have　
to　restrain　its　energy　consumption　and　worry　about　the　environment；　when　America　and　
Europe　got　to　consume　all　they　energy　they　wanted　when　they　were　developing？〃　I　did　
not　have　a　good　answer。　China　isa　high…pride　country。　TellingChina；　India；　and　Russia　
to　consume　less　could　have　the　same　geopolitical　impact　that　the　world's　inability　
to　accommodate　a　rising　Japan　and　Germany　had　after　World　War　I。　
If　current　trends　hold；　China　will　go　from　importing　7　million　barrels　of　oil　today　
to　14　million　a　day　by　2012。　For　the　world　to　accommodate　that　increase　it　would　have　
to　find　another　SaudiArabia。　That　is　notlikely；　which　doesn't　leave　many　good　options。　
〃For　geopolitical　reasons；　we　cannot　tell　them　no；　we　cannot　tell　China　and　India；　
it　is　not　your　turn；〃　said　Philip　K。　Verleger　Jr。；　a　leading　oil　economist。　〃And　for　
moral　reasons；　we　have　lost　the　ability　to　lecture　anyone。〃　But　if　we　do　nothing；　
several　things　will　likely　result。　First；　gasoline　prices　will　continue　to　trend　


higher　and　higher。　Second；　we　will　be　strengthening　the　very　worst　political　systems　
in　the　world…like　Sudan；　Iran；　and　Saudi　Arabia。　And　third；　the　environment　will　be　
damaged　more　and　more。　Already；　the　newspaper　headlines　in　China　every　day　are　about　
energy　shortages；　blackouts；　and　brownouts。　U。S。　officials　estimate　that　twenty…four　
out　of　China's　thirty…one　provinces　are　now　experiencing　power　shortages。　
We　are　all　stewards　of　the　planet；　and　the　test　for　our　generation　is　whether　we　will　
pass　on　a　planet　in　as　good　or　better　shape　than　we　found　
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it。　The　flattening　process　is　going　to　challenge　that　responsibility。　〃Aldo　Leopold；　
the　father　of　wildlife　ecology；　once　said：　'The　first　rule　of　intelligent　tinkering　
is　save　all　the　pieces；'〃　remarked　Glenn　Prickett；　senior　vice　president　of　
Conservation　International。　〃What　if　we　don't？　What　if　the　3　billion　new　entrants　
start　gobbling　up　all　the　resources？　Species　and　ecosystems　can't　adapt　that　fast；　
and　we　will　lose　a　major　portion　of　the　earth's　remaining　biological　diversity。〃　
Already；　noted　Prickett；　if　you　look　at　what　is　happening　in　the　Congo　Basin；　the　
Amazon；　the　rain　forest　of　Indonesia…the　last　great　wilderness　areas…you　find　that　
they　are　being　devoured　by　China's　rising　appetite。　More　and　more　palm　oil　is　being　
extracted　from　Indonesia　and　Malaysia；　soybeans　out　of　Brazil；　timber　out　of　central　
Africa；　and　natural　gas　out　of　all　of　the　above　to　serve　China…and；　as　a　result；　
threatening　all　sorts　of　natural　habitats。　If　these　trends　go　on　unchecked；　with　all　
the　natural　habitats　being　converted　to　farmland　and　urban　areas；　and　the　globe　
getting　warmer；　many　of　the　currently　threatened　species　will　be　condemned　to　
extinction。　
The　move　to　sharply　reduce　energy　consumption　has　to　come　from　within　China；　as　the　
Chinese　confront　what　the　need　for　fuel　is　doing　to　their　own　environment　and　growth　
aspirations。　The　only　thing…and　the　best　thing…we　in　the　United　States　and　Western　
Europe　can　do　to　nudge　China　toward　that　understanding　is　set　an　example　by　changing　
our　own　consumption　patterns。　That　would　give　us　some　credibility　to　lecture　others。　
〃Restoring　our　moral　standing　on　energy　is　now　a　vital　national　security　and　
environmental　issue；〃　said　Verleger。　That　requires　doing　everything　more　
seriously…more　serious　government　funding　for　alternatives；　a　real　push　by　the　
federal　government　to　promote　conservation；　a　gasoline　tax　that　will　drive　more　
consumers　to　buy　hybrid　vehicles　and　smaller　cars；　legislation　to　force　Detroit　to　
make　more　fuel…efficient　vehicles；　and　yes；　more　domestic　exploration。　Together；　
added　Verleger；　that　could　help　stabilize　the　price　at　around　25　a　barrel；　〃which　
seems　to　be　the　ideal　range　for　sustainable　global　growth。〃　
In　sum；　we　in　the　West　have　a　fundamental　interest　in　keeping　the　American　dream　alive　
in　Beijing　and　Boise　and　Bangalore。　But　we　have　to　stop　fooling　ourselves　that　it　
can　be　done　in　a　flat　world　with　3　billion　potential　new　consumers…if　we　don't　find　
a　radical　new　approach　to　en413　
ergy　usage　and　conservation。　If　we　fail　to　do　so；　we　will　be　courting　both　an　
environmental　and　geopolitical　whirlwind。　If　there　was　ever　a　time　for　some　big　
collaboration；　it　is　now；　and　the　subject　is　energy。　I　would　love　to　see　a　grand　


China…United　States　Manhattan　Project；　a　crash　program　to　jointly　develop　clean　
alternative　energies；　bringing　together　China's　best　scientists　and　its　political　
ability　to　implement　pilot　projects；　with　America's　best　brains；　technology；　and　
money。　It　would　be　the　ideal　model　and　the　ideal　project　for　creating　value　
horizontally；　with　each　side　contributing　its　strength。　Said　Scott　Roberts；　the　
Cambridge　Energy　Research　Associates　analyst　in　China；　〃When　it　comes　to　renewable　
technology　and　sustainable　energy；　China　could　be　the　laboratory　of　the　world…not　
just　the　workshop　of　the　world。〃　Why　not？　

：：：：：　TWELVE　
The　Dell　Theory　of　Conflict　Prevention　
Old…Time　Versus　Just…in…Time　
Free　Trade　is　God's　diplomacy。　There　is　no　other　certain　way　of　uniting　people　in　
the　bonds　of　peace。　…British　politician　Richard　Cobden；　1857　
Before　I　share　with　you　the　subject　of　this　chapter；　I　have　to　tell　you　a　little　bit　
about　the　computer　that　I　wrote　this　book　on。　It's　related　to　the　theme　I　am　about　
to　discuss。　This　book　was　largely　written　on　a　Dell　Inspiron　600m　notebook；　service　
tag　number　9ZRJP41。　As　part　of　the　research　for