the.world.is.flat-第111章
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killed humanity as a whole； has been turned into a global message of hate and a
universal war cry 。 。 。 We cannot clear our names unless we own up to the shameful
fact that terrorism has become an Islamic enterprise； an almost exclusive monopoly；
implemented by Muslim men and women。 We cannot redeem our extremist youth； who commit
all these heinous crimes； without confronting the Sheikhs who thought it ennobling
to reinvent themselves as revolutionary ideologues； sending other people's sons and
daughters to certain death； while sending their own children to European and American
schools and colleges。〃
407
Too Many Toyotas
The problems of the too sick； the too disempowered； and the too humiliated are all
in their own ways keeping the world from becoming entirely flat。 They may do so even
more in the future； if they are not properly addressed。 But another barrier to the
flattening of the world is emerging； one that is not a human constraint but a natural
resource constraint。 If millions of people from India； China； Latin America； and the
former Soviet Empire who were living largely outside the flat world all start to walk
onto the flat world playing field at once…and all come with their own dream of owning
a car； a house； a refrigerator； a microwave； and a toaster…we are going to experience
either a serious energy shortage or； worse； wars over energy that would have a
profoundly unflattening effect on the world。
As I mentioned earlier； I visited Beijing in the summer of2004 with my wife and teenage
daughter； Natalie。 Before we left； I said to Natalie； 〃You're really going to like
this city。 They have these big bicycle lanes on all the main roads。 Maybe when we
get there we can rent bikes and just ride around Beijing。 I did that last time I was
there； and it was a lot of fun。〃
Silly Tom。 I hadn't been to Beijing in three years； and just in that brief period
of time the explosive growth there had wiped out many of those charming bicycle lanes。
They had been either shrunken or eliminated to add another lane for automobiles and
buses。 The only biking I did there was on the stationary exercise bike in our hotel；
which was a good antidote for having to spend so much time sitting in cars stuck in
Beijing traffic jams。 I was in Beijing to attend an international business conference；
and while there I discovered why all the bikes had disappeared。 According to one
speaker at the conference； some thirty thousand new cars were being added to the roads
in Beijing every month…one thousand new cars a day！ I found that statistic so
unbelievable that I asked Michael Zhao； a young researcher in the Times's Beijing
bureau； to double…check it； and he wrote me back the following e…mail：
Hi Tom； Hope this email finds you well。 On your question about how many cars are added
each day in Beijing； I did some research
on the Internet and found that。 。 。 car sales in ＇Beijing＇ for April 2004 were 43；000
…24。1％ more than same period lastyear。 So that is 1；433 cars added ＇daily＇ to Beijing；
but including secondhand car sales。 New car sales this month were 30；000； or 1；000
cars each day added to the city。 The total car sales from Jan。 to April 2004 were
165；000； that is about 1；375 cars added each day to Beijing over this period。 This
data is from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce。 The city's bureau of statistics
has it that the total car sales in 2003 were 407；649； or 1；117 cars each day added。
The new car sales last year were 292；858； or 802 new cars each day 。 。。 The total
number of cars in Beijing is 2。1 million 。 。 。 But the recent months seem to have
witnessed surging sales。 Also noteworthy is last year's SARS outbreak； during which
period a lot of families bought cars； due to panic about public contact and a sort
of doomsday…stimulated enjoy…life mentality。 And many new car owners did enjoy their
time driving； as the traffic in the city so much improved with a lot of people
voluntarily caged at home； without daring to go out。 Since then； coupled with dropping
car prices due to China's commitment to reduce tariffs after joining the WTO； a large
number of families have advanced their timetable of buying a car； although some others
decided to wait for further drops of prices。 All the best； Michael。
As Michael's note indicated； you can see China's middle class rising right before
your eyes； and it is going to have enormous energy and environmental spillover。 The
Great Chinese Dream； like the Great Indian Dream； the Great Russian Dream； and the
Great American Dream； is built around a high…energy； high…electricity；
high…bent…metal lifestyle。 To put it another way； the thirty thousand new cars a month
in Beijing； and the cloud of haze that envelops the city on so many days； and the
fact that the city's official Web site actually keeps track of 〃blue sky〃 days all
testify to the environmental destruction that could arise from the triple
convergence…if clean alternative renewable energies are not developed soon。 Already；
according to the World Bank； sixteen of the twenty most polluted cities in the world
are in China； and that pollution and environ409
mental degradation together cost China 170 billion a year （The Economist； August
21； 2004）。
And we have not seen anything yet。 China； with its own oil and gas reserves； was once
a net exporter。 Not anymore。 In 2003 China surged ahead of Japan as the second largest
importer of oil in the world； after the United States。 Right now about 700 to 800
million of China's 1。3 billion people live in the countryside； but they are heading
for the flat world； and roughly half are expected to try to migrate to the cities
over the next two decades； if they can find work。 This will spur a huge surge in demand
for cars； houses； steel beams； power plants； school buildings； sewage plants；
electricity grids…the energy implications of which are unprecedented in the history
of Planet Earth； round or flat。
At the business conference I was attending in Beijing； I kept hearing references to
the Strait of Malacca…the narrow passage between Malaysia and Indonesia that is
patrolled by the U。S。 Navy and controls all the oil tanker traffic from the Middle
East to China and Japan。 I hadn't heard anyone talking about the Strait of Malacca
since the 1970s oil crises。 But evidently Chinese strategic planners have begun to
grow increasingly concerned that the United States could choke off China's economy
at any time by just closing the Strait of Malacca； and this threat is now being
increasingly and openly discussed in Chinese military circles。 It is just a small
hint of the potential struggle for power…energy power…that could ensue if the Great
American Dream and the Great Chinese Dream and the Great Indian Dream and the Great
Russian Dream come to be seen as mutually exclusive in energy terms。
China's foreign policy today consists of two things： preventing Taiwan from becoming
independent and searching for oil。 China is now obsessed with acquiring secure oil
supplies from countries that would not retaliate against China if it invaded Taiwan；
and this is driving China to get cozy with some of the worst regimes in the world。
The Islamic fundamentalist government in Sudan now supplies China with 7 percent of
its oil supplies and China has invested 3 billion in oil drilling infrastructure
there。
In September 2004； China threatened to veto a move by the United Nations to impose
sanctions on Sudan for the genocide that it is perpetrat410
ing in its Darfur province。 China followed by opposing any move to refer Iran's obvious
attempts todevelop nuclear…weapons…grade fuelto the United Nations Security Council。
Iran supplies 13 percent of China's oil supplies。 Meanwhile； as the Daily Telegraph
reported （November 19； 2004）； China has begun drilling for gas in the East China Sea；
just west of the line that Japan regards as its border： 〃Japan protested； to no avail；
that the project should be a joint one。 The two are also set to clash over Russia's
oil wealth。 China is furious that Japan has outbid it in their battle to determine
the route of
