the.world.is.flat-第101章

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Essentially　he　said；　'Beware；　keep　your　
373　
eyes　open；　because　the　kids　are　so　far　ahead　of　us　in　terms　of　the　technology。'〃　
But　things　aren't　all　bad　with　this　new　technology；　noted　Brian：　〃I　went　to　a　Jimmy　
Buffett　concert　earlier　this　year。　Cameras　were　not　allowed；　but　cell　phones　were。　


So　then　the　concert　starts　and　everyone　suddenly　starts　holding　up　their　cell　phones　
and　taking　pictures　of　Jimmy　Buffett。　I've　got　one　right　on　my　wall。　We　were　sitting　
in　the　second　row　and　the　guy　next　to　us　held　up　his　cell　phone；　and　I　said；　'Hey；　
would　you　mind　e…mailing　me　some　of　those？　No　one　will　believe　we　sat　this　close。'　
He　said　'Sure；'　and　we　gave　him　a　card　with　our　e…mail　＇address＇。　We　didn't　really　
expect　to　see　any；　but　the　next　day　he　e…mailed　us　a　bunch。〃　
My　trip　to　Beijing　described　earlier　fell　right　after　the　fifteenth　anniversary　of　
the　Tiananmen　Square　massacre；　which　happened　on　June　4；　1989；　that　is；　6/4/89。　My　
colleagues　at　the　Times　bureau　informed　me　that　on　that　day　the　Chinese　government　
censors　were　blocking　SMS　messages　on　cell　phones　that　contained　any　reference　to　
Tiananmen　Square　or　even　the　numbers　6　and　4。　So　if　you　happened　to　be　dialing　the　
phone　number　664…6464；　or　sending　a　message　in　which　you　told　someone　you　would　meet　
at　6　p。m。　on　the　4th　floor；　the　Chinese　censors　blocked　it　using　their　jamming　
technology。　
Mark　Steyn；　writing　in　the　National　Review　（October　25；　2004）；　related　a　story　from　
the　London　Arabic　newspaper　paper　Al…Quds　al…Arabi　about　a　panic　that　broke　out　in　
Khartoum；　Sudan；　after　a　crazy　rumor　swept　the　city；　claiming　that　if　an　infidel　shook　
a　man's　hand；　that　man　could　lose　his　manhood。　〃What　struck　me　about　the　story；〃　wrote　
Steyn；　〃was　a　detail：　The　hysteria　was　spread　by　cell　phones　and　text　messaging。　Think　
about　that：　You　can　own　a　cell　phone　yet　still　believe　a　foreigner's　handshake　can　
melt　away　your　penis。　What　happens　when　that　kind　of　technologically　advanced　
primitivism　advances　beyond　text　messaging？〃　
This　is　not　a　chapter　about　cell　phones；　so　why　do　I　raise　these　stories？　Because　
ever　since　I　began　writing　about　globalization；　I've　been　challenged　by　critics　along　
one　particular　line：　〃Isn't　there　a　certain　technological　determinism　to　your　
argument？　To　listen　to　you；　Friedman；　there　

are　these　ten　flatteners；　they　are　converging　and　flattening　the　earth；　and　there　
is　nothing　that　people　can　do　but　bow　to　them　and　join　the　parade。　And　after　a　
transition；　everyone　will　get　richer　and　smarter　and　it　will　all　be　fine。　But　you're　
wrong；　because　the　history　of　the　world　suggests　that　ideological　alternatives；　and　
power　alternatives；　have　always　arisen　to　any　system；　and　globalization　will　be　no　
different。〃　
This　is　a　legitimate　question；　solet　me　try　to　answer　it　directly：　I　am　a　technological　
determinist！　Guilty　as　charged。　
I　believe　that　capabilities　create　intentions。　If　we　create　an　Internet　where　people　
can　open　an　online　store　and　have　global　suppliers；　global　customers；　and　global　
competitors；　they　will　open　that　online　store　or　bank　or　bookshop。　If　we　create　work　
flow　platforms　that　allow　companies　to　disaggregate　any　job　and　source　it　to　the　
knowledge　center　anywhere　in　the　world　that　can　perform　that　task　most　efficiently　
at　the　lowest　cost；　companies　will　do　that　sort　of　outsourcing。　If　we　create　cell　
phones　with　cameras　in　them；　people　will　use　them　for　all　sorts　of　tasks；　from　cheating　
on　tests　to　calling　Grandma　in　her　nursing　home　on　her　ninetieth　birthday　from　the　
top　of　a　mountain　in　New　Zealand。　The　history　of　economic　development　teaches　this　


over　and　over：　If　you　can　do　it；　you　must　do　it；　otherwise　your　competitors　will…and　
as　this　book　has　tried　to　demonstrate；　there　is　a　whole　new　universe　of　things　that　
companies；　countries；　and　individuals　can　and　must　do　to　thrive　in　a　flat　world。　
But　while　I　am　a　technological　determinist；　I　am　not　a　historical　determinist。　There　
is　absolutely　no　guarantee　that　everyone　will　use　these　new　technologies；　or　the　
triple　convergence；　for　the　benefit　of　themselves；　their　countries；　or　humanity。　
These　are　just　technologies。　Using　them　does　not　make　you　modern；　smart；　moral；　wise；　
fair；　or　decent。　It　just　makes　you　able　to　communicate；　compete；　and　collaborate　
farther　and　faster。　In　the　absence　of　a　world…destabilizing　war；　every　one　of　these　
technologies　will　become　cheaper；　lighter；　smaller　and　more　personal；　mobile；　digital；　
and　virtual。　Therefore；　more　and　more　people　will　find　more　and　more　ways　to　use　them。　
We　can　only　hope　that　more　people　in　more　places　will　use　them　to　create；　collaborate；　
and　grow　their　living　standards；　not　the　opposite。　But　it　doesn't　have　to　happen。　
To　put　it　another　way；　I　don't　know　how　the　flattening　of　the　world　will　come　out。　
375　
Indeed；　this　is　the　point　in　the　book　where　I　have　to　make　a　confession：　I　know　that　
the　world　is　not　flat。　
Yes；　you　read　me　right：　I　know　that　the　world　is　not　flat。　Don't　worry。　I　know。　
I　am　certain；　though；　that　the　world　has　been　shrinking　and　flattening　for　some　time　
now；　and　that　process　has　quickened　dramatically　in　recent　years。　Half　the　world　today　
is　directly　or　indirectly　participating　in　the　flattening　process　or　feeling　its　
effects。　I　have　engaged　in　literary　license　in　titling　this　book　The　World　Is　Flat　
to　draw　attention　to　this　flattening　and　its　quickening　pace　because　I　think　it　is　
the　single　most　important　trend　in　the　world　today。　
But　I　am　equally　certain　that　it　is　not　historically　inevitable　that　the　rest　of　the　
world　will　become　flat　or　that　the　already　flat　parts　of　the　world　won't　get　
unflattened　by　war；　economic　disruption；　or　politics。　There　are　hundreds　of　millions　
of　people　on　this　planet　who　have　been　left　behind　by　the　flattening　process　or　feel　
overwhelmed　by　it；　and　some　of　them　have　enough　access　to　the　flattening　tools　to　
use　them　against　the　system；　not　on　its　behalf。　How　the　flattening　could　go　wrong　
is　the　subject　of　this　chapter；　and　I　approach　it　by　trying　to　answer　the　following　
questions：　What　are　the　biggest　constituencies；　forces；　or　problems　impeding　this　
flattening　process；　and　how　might　we　collaborate　better　to　overcome　them？　
Too　Sick　
I　once　heard　Jerry　Yang；　the　cofounder　of　Yahoo！；　quote　a　senior　Chinese　government　
official　as　saying；　〃Where　people　have　hope；　you　have　a　middle　class。〃　I　think　this　
is　a　very　useful　insight。　The　existence　of　large；　stable　middle　classes　around　the　
world　is　crucial　to　geopolitical　stability；　but　middle　class　is　a　state　of　mind；　not　
a　state　of　income。　That's　why　a　majority　of　Americans　always　describe　themselves　as　
〃middle　class；〃　even　though　by　income　statistics　some　of　them　wouldn't　be　considered　
as　such。　〃Middle　class〃　is　another　way　of　describing　people　
376　
who　believe　that　they　have　a　pathway　out　of　poverty　or　lower…income　status　toward　
a　higher　standard　of　living　and　a　better　future　for　their　kids。　You　can　be　in　the　


middle　class　in　your　head　whether　you　make　2　a　day　or　200；　if　you　believe　in　social　
mobility…that　your　kids　have　a　chance　to　live　better　than　you　do…and　that　hard　work　
and　playing　by　the　rules　of　your　society　will　get　you　where　you　want　to　go。　
In　many　ways；　the　line　between　those　who　are　in　the　flat　world　and　those　who　are　not　
is　this　line　of　hope。　The　good　news　in　India　and　China　and　the　countries　of　the　former　
Soviet　Empire　today　is　that；　with　all　their　flaws　and　internal　contradictions；　these　
countries　are　now　home　to　hundreds　of　millions　of　people　who　are　hopeful　enough　to　
be　middle　class。　The　bad　news　in　Africa　today；　as　well　as　rural　India；　China；　Latin　
America；　and　plenty　of　dark　corners　of　the　developed　world；　is　that　there　are　hundreds　
of　millions　of　people　who　have　no　hope　and　therefore　no　chance　of　making　it　into　the　
middle　class。　They　have　no　hope　for　two　reasons：　Either　they　are　too　sick；　or　their　
local　governments　are　too　broken　for　them　to　believe　they　have　a　pathway　forward。　
The　first　group；　those　who　are　too　sick；　are　those　whose　lives　are　stalked　every　day　
by　HIV…AIDS；　malaria；　TB；　and　polio；　and　who　do　not　even　enjoy　steady　elect