darwin and modern science-第187章

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n　default　of　the　man　who　initiated　and　guided　it；　it　might　have　been　postponed；　and；　postponed　or　not；　might　have　borne　a　different　cachet。　　I　may　illustrate　by　an　instance　which　has　just　come　under　my　notice。　　Modern　painting　was　founded　by　Giotto；　and　the　Italian　expedition　of　Charles　VIII；　near　the　close　of　the　sixteenth　century；　introduced　into　France　the　fashion　of　imitating　Italian　painters。　But　for　Giotto　and　Charles　VIII；　French　painting　might　have　been　very　different。　　It　may　be　said　that　〃if　Giotto　had　not　appeared；　some　other　great　initiator　would　have　played　a　role　analogous　to　his；　and　that　without　Charles　VIII　there　would　have　been　the　commerce　with　Italy；　which　in　the　long　run　would　have　sufficed　to　place　France　in　relation　with　Italian　artists。　　But　the　equivalent　of　Giotto　might　have　been　deferred　for　a　century　and　probably　would　have　been　different；　and　commercial　relations　would　have　required　ages　to　produce　the　rayonnement　imitatif　of　Italian　art　in　France；　which　the　expedition　of　the　royal　adventurer　provoked　in　a　few　years。〃　　（I　have　taken　this　example　from　G。　Tarde's　〃La　logique　sociale〃　2　（page　403）；　Paris；　1904；　where　it　is　used　for　quite　a　different　purpose。）　　Instances　furnished　by　political　history　are　simply　endless。　　Can　we　conjecture　how　events　would　have　moved　if　the　son　of　Philip　of　Macedon　had　been　an　incompetent？　　The　aggressive　action　of　Prussia　which　astonished　Europe　in　1740　determined　the　subsequent　history　of　Germany；　but　that　action　was　anything　but　inevitable；　it　depended　entirely　on　the　personality　of　Frederick　the　Great。

Hence　it　may　be　argued　that　the　action　of　individual　wills　is　a　determining　and　disturbing　factor；　too　significant　and　effective　to　allow　history　to　be　grasped　by　sociological　formulae。　　The　types　and　general　forms　of　development　which　the　sociologist　attempts　to　disengage　can　only　assist　the　historian　in　understanding　the　actual　course　of　events。　　It　is　in　the　special　domains　of　economic　history　and　Culturgeschichte　which　have　come　to　the　front　in　modern　times　that　generalisation　is　most　fruitful；　but　even　in　these　it　may　be　contended　that　it　furnishes　only　partial　explanations。

17。　　The　truth　is　that　Darwinism　itself　offers　the　best　illustration　of　the　insufficiency　of　general　laws　to　account　for　historical　development。　　The　part　played　by　coincidence；　and　the　part　played　by　individualslimited　by；　and　related　to；　general　social　conditionsrender　it　impossible　to　deduce　the　course　of　the　past　history　of　man　or　to　predict　the　future。　　But　it　is　just　the　same　with　organic　development。　　Darwin　（or　any　other　zoologist）　could　not　deduce　the　actual　course　of　evolution　from　general　principles。　　Given　an　organism　and　its　environment；　he　could　not　show　that　it　must　evolve　into　a　more　complex　organism　of　a　definite　pre…determined　type；　knowing　what　it　has　evolved　into；　he　could　attempt　to　discover　and　assign　the　determining　causes。　　General　principles　do　not　account　for　a　particular　sequence；　they　embody　necessary　conditions；　but　there　is　a　chapter　of　accidents　too。　　It　is　the　same　in　the　case　of　history。

18。　　Among　the　evolutional　attempts　to　subsume　the　course　of　history　under　general　syntheses；　perhaps　the　most　important　is　that　of　Lamprecht；　whose　〃kulturhistorische　Methode；〃　which　he　has　deduced　from　and　applied　to　German　history；　exhibits　the　（indirect）　influence　of　the　Comtist　school。　　It　is　based　upon　psychology；　which；　in　his　view；　holds　among　the　sciences　of　mind　（Geisteswissenschaften）　the　same　place　（that　of　a　Grundwissenschaft）　which　mechanics　holds　among　the　sciences　of　nature。　　History；　by　the　same　comparison；　corresponds　to　biology；　and；　according　to　him；　it　can　only　become　scientific　if　it　is　reduced　to　general　concepts　（Begriffe）。　　Historical　movements　and　events　are　of　a　psychical　character；　and　Lamprecht　conceives　a　given　phase　of　civilisation　as　〃a　collective　psychical　condition　（seelischer　Gesamtzustand）〃　controlling　the　period；　〃a　diapason　which　penetrates　all　psychical　phenomena　and　thereby　all　historical　events　of　the　time。〃　　（〃Die　kulturhistorische　Methode〃；　Berlin；　1900；　page　26。）　　He　has　worked　out　a　series　of　such　phases；　〃ages　of　changing　psychical　diapason；〃　in　his　〃Deutsche　Geschichte〃　with　the　aim　of　showing　that　all　the　feelings　and　actions　of　each　age　can　be　explained　by　the　diapason；　and　has　attempted　to　prove　that　these　diapasons　are　exhibited　in　other　social　developments；　and　are　consequently　not　singular　but　typical。　　He　maintains　further　that　these　ages　succeed　each　other　in　a　definite　order；　the　principle　being　that　the　collective　psychical　development　begins　with　the　homogeneity　of　all　the　individual　members　of　a　society　and；　through　heightened　psychical　activity；　advances　in　the　form　of　a　continually　increasing　differentiation　of　the　individuals　（this　is　akin　to　the　Spencerian　formula）。　　This　process；　evolving　psychical　freedom　from　psychical　constraint；　exhibits　a　series　of　psychical　phenomena　which　define　successive　periods　of　civilisation。　　The　process　depends　on　two　simple　principles；　that　no　idea　can　disappear　without　leaving　behind　it　an　effect　or　influence；　and　that　all　psychical　life；　whether　in　a　person　or　a　society；　means　change；　the　acquisition　of　new　mental　contents。　　It　follows　that　the　new　have　to　come　to　terms　with　the　old；　and　this　leads　to　a　synthesis　which　determines　the　character　of　a　new　age。　　Hence　the　ages　of　civilisation　are　defined　as　the　〃highest　concepts　for　subsuming　without　exception　all　psychical　phenomena　of　the　development　of　human　societies；　that　is；　of　all　historical　events。〃　　（Ibid。　pages　28；　29。）　　Lamprecht　deduces　the　idea　of　a　special　historical　science；　which　might　be　called　〃historical　ethnology；〃　dealing　with　the　ages　of　civilisation；　and　bearing　the　same　relation　to　（descriptive　or　narrative）　history　as　ethnology　to　ethnography。　　Such　a　science　obviously　corresponds　to　Comte's　social　dynamics；　and　the　comparative　method；　on　which　Comte　laid　so　much　emphasis；　is　the　principal　instrument　of　Lamprecht。

19。　　I　have　dwelt　on　the　fundamental　ideas　of　Lamprecht；　because　they　are　not　yet　widely　known　in　England；　and　because　his　system　is　the　ablest　product　of　the　sociological　school　of　historians。　　It　carries　the　more　weight　as　its　author　himself　is　a　historical　specialist；　and　his　historical　syntheses　deserve　the　most　careful　consideration。　　But　there　is　much　in　the　process　of　development　which　on　such　assumptions　is　not　explained；　especially　the　initiative　of　individuals。　　Historical　development　does　not　proceed　in　a　right　line；　without　the　choice　of　diverging。　　Again　and　again；　several　roads　are　open　to　it；　of　which　it　chooses　onewhy？　　On　Lamprecht's　method；　we　may　be　able　to　assign　the　conditions　which　limit　the　psychical　activity　of　men　at　a　particular　stage　of　evolution；　but　within　those　limits　the　individual　has　so　many　options；　such　a　wide　room　for　moving；　that　the　definition　of　those　conditions；　the　〃psychical　diapasons；〃　is　only　part　of　the　explanation　of　the　particular　development。　　The　heel　of　Achilles　in　all　historical　speculations　of　this　class　has　been　the　role　of　the　individual。

The　increasing　prominence　of　economic　history　has　tended　to　encourage　the　view　that　history　can　be　explained　in　terms　of　general　concepts　or　types。　　Marx　and　his　school　based　their　theory　of　human　development　on　the　conditions　of　production；　by　which；　according　to　them；　all　social　movements　and　historical　changes　are　entirely　controlled。　　The　leading　part　which　economic　factors　play　in　Lamprecht's　system　is　significant；　illustrating　the　fact　that　economic　changes　admit　most　readily　this　kind　of　treatment；　because　they　have　been　less　subject　to　direction　or　interference　by　individual　pioneers。

Perhaps　it　may　be　thought　that　the　conception　of　SOCIAL　ENVIRONMENT　（essentially　psychical）；　on　which　Lamprecht's　〃psychical　diapasons〃　depend；　is　the　most　valuable　and　fertile　conception　that　the　historian　owes　to　the　suggestion　of　the　science　of　biologythe　conception　of　all　particular　historical　actions　and　movements　as　（1）　related　to　and　conditioned　by　the　social　environment；　and　（2）　gradually　bringing　about　a　transformation　of　that　environment。　　But　no　given　transformation　can　be　proved　to　be　necessary　（pre…de