the crisis in russia(俄国危机)-第33章
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Denikin。 If the area he controls increases； his power of control over his
subordinates will decrease； and the forces that led to Denikin's collapse
will be set in motion in his case also。* ＇（*）On the day on which I send this
book to the printers news comes of Wrangel's collapse and flight。 I leave
standing what I have written concerning him； since it
will apply to any successor he may have。 Each general who has
stepped into Kolchak's shoes has eventually had to run away in them； and
always for the same reasons。 It may be taken almost as an axiom that the
history of great country is that of its centre； not of its periphery。 The
main course of English history throughout the troubled seventeenth and
eighteenth centuries was never deflected from London。 French history
did not desert Paris； to make a new start at Toulon or at Quiberon Bay。
And only a fanatic could suppose that Russian history would run away
from Moscow； to begin again in a semi…Tartar peninsula in the Black Sea。
Moscow changes continually； and may so change as to make easy the
return of the 〃refugees。〃 Some have already returned。 But the refugees
will not return as conquerors。 Should a Russian Napoleon （an unlikely
figure； even in spite of our efforts） appear； he will not throw away the
invaluable asset of a revolutionary war…cry。 He will have to fight some
one； or he will not be a Napoleon。 And whom will he fight but the very
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people who； by keeping up the friction； have rubbed Aladdin's ring so hard
and so long that a Djinn； by no means kindly disposed towards them；
bursts forth at last to avenge the breaking of his sleep？＇
And； of course； should hostilities flare up again on the Polish frontier；
should the lions and lambs and jackals and eagles of Kossack； Russian；
Ukrainian and Polish nationalists temporarily join forces； no miracles of
diplomacy will keep them from coming to blows。 For all these reasons a
military collapse of the Soviet Government at the present time； even a
concerted military advance of its enemies； is unlikely。
It is undoubtedly true that the food situation in the towns is likely to
be worse this winter than it has yet been。 Forcible attempts to get food
from the peasantry will increase the existing hostility between town and
country。 There has been a very bad harvest in Russia。 The bringing of
food from Siberia or the Kuban （if military activities do not make that
impossible） will impose an almost intolerable strain on the inadequate
transport。 Yet I think internal collapse unlikely。 It may be said almost
with certainty that Governments do not collapse until there is no one left
to defend them。 That moment had arrived in the case of the
Tsar。 It had arrived in the case of Kerensky。 It has not arrived in the
case of the Soviet Government for certain obvious reasons。 For one
thing； a collapse of the Soviet Government at the present time would be
disconcerting； if not disastrous； to its more respectable enemies。 It would；
of course； open the way to a practically unopposed military advance； but at
the same time it would present its enemies with enormous territory； which
would overwhelm the organizing powers which they have shown again
and again to be quite inadequate to much smaller tasks。 Nor would
collapse of the present Government turn a bad harvest into a good one。
Such a collapse would mean the breakdown of all existing organizations；
and would intensify the horrors of famine for every town dweller。
Consequently； though the desperation of hunger and resentment against
inevitable requisitions may breed riots and revolts here and there
throughout the country； the men who； in other circumstances； might
coordinate such events； will refrain from doing anything of the sort。 I do
not say that collapse is impossible。 I do say that it would be extremely
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undesirable from the point of view of almost everybody in Russia。
Collapse of the present Government would mean at best a reproduction of
the circumstances of 1917； with the difference that no intervention from
without would be necessary to stimulate indiscriminate slaughter within。
I say 〃at best〃 because I think it more likely that collapse would be
followed by a period of actual chaos。 Any Government that followed the
Communists would be faced by the same economic problem； and would
have to choose between imposing measures very like those of the
Communists and allowing Russia to subside into a new area for
colonization。 There are people who look upon this as a natural； even a
desirable； result of the revolution。 They forget that the Russians have
never been a subject race； that they have immense powers of passive
resistance； that they respond very readily to any idea that they understand；
and that the idea of revolt against foreigners is difficult not to understand。
Any country that takes advantage of the Russian people in a moment of
helplessness will find； sooner or later； first that it has united Russia against
it； and secondly that it has given all Russians a single and undesirable
view of the history of the last three years。 There will not be a Russian
who will not believe that the artificial incubation of
civil war within the frontiers of old Russia was not deliberately
undertaken by Western Europe with the object of so far weakening Russia
as to make her exploitation easy。 Those who look with equanimity even on
this prospect forget that the creation in Europe of a new area for
colonization； a knocking out of one of the sovereign nations； will create a
vacuum； and that the effort to fill this vacuum will set at loggerheads
nations at present friendly and so produce a struggle which may well do
for Western Europe what Western Europe will have done for Russia。
It is of course possible that in some such way the Russian Revolution
may prove to be no more than the last desperate gesture of a stricken
civilization。 My point is that if that is so； civilization in Russia will not
die without infecting us with its disease。 It seems to me that our own
civilization is ill already； slightly demented perhaps； and liable； like a man
in delirium； to do things which tend to aggravate the malady。 I think that
the whole of the Russian war； waged directly or indirectly by Western
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Europe； is an example of this sort of d
