essays and lectures-第13章

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thing；　though　it　may　allure　a　fool。'　　And　all　through　his　history

the　same　point　is　put　forward　and　exemplified　in　every　fashion。



So　far　for　the　conception　of　history。　　Now　for　the　groundwork。　　As

regards　the　character　of　the　phenomena　to　be　selected　by　the

scientific　investigator；　Aristotle　had　laid　down　the　general

formula　that　nature　should　be　studied　in　her　normal　manifestations。

Polybius；　true　to　his　character　of　applying　explicitly　the

principles　implicit　in　the　work　of　others；　follows　out　the　doctrine

of　Aristotle；　and　lays　particular　stress　on　the　rational　and

undisturbed　character　of　the　development　of　the　Roman　constitution

as　affording　special　facilities　for　the　discovery　of　the　laws　of

its　progress。　　Political　revolutions　result　from　causes　either

external　or　internal。　　The　former　are　mere　disturbing　forces　which

lie　outside　the　sphere　of　scientific　calculation。　　It　is　the　latter

which　are　important　for　the　establishing　of　principles　and　the

elucidation　of　the　sequences　of　rational　evolution。



He　thus　may　be　said　to　have　anticipated　one　of　the　most　important

truths　of　the　modern　methods　of　investigation：　　I　mean　that

principle　which　lays　down　that　just　as　the　study　of　physiology

should　precede　the　study　of　pathology；　just　as　the　laws　of　disease

are　best　discovered　by　the　phenomena　presented　in　health；　so　the

method　of　arriving　at　all　great　social　and　political　truths　is　by

the　investigation　of　those　cases　where　development　has　been　normal；

rational　and　undisturbed。



The　critical　canon　that　the　more　a　people　has　been　interfered　with；

the　more　difficult　it　becomes　to　generalise　the　laws　of　its

progress　and　to　analyse　the　separate　forces　of　its　civilisation；　is

one　the　validity　of　which　is　now　generally　recognised　by　those　who

pretend　to　a　scientific　treatment　of　all　history：　　and　while　we

have　seen　that　Aristotle　anticipated　it　in　a　general　formula；　to

Polybius　belongs　the　honour　of　being　the　first　to　apply　it

explicitly　in　the　sphere　of　history。



I　have　shown　how　to　this　great　scientific　historian　the　motive　of

his　work　was　essentially　the　search　for　causes；　and　true　to　his

analytical　spirit　he　is　careful　to　examine　what　a　cause　really　is

and　in　what　part　of　the　antecedents　of　any　consequent　it　is　to　be

looked　for。　　To　give　an　illustration：　　As　regards　the　origin　of　the

war　with　Perseus；　some　assigned　as　causes　the　expulsion　of

Abrupolis　by　Perseus；　the　expedition　of　the　latter　to　Delphi；　the

plot　against　Eumenes　and　the　seizure　of　the　ambassadors　in　Boeotia；

of　these　incidents　the　two　former；　Polybius　points　out；　were　merely

the　pretexts；　the　two　latter　merely　the　occasions　of　the　war。　　The

war　was　really　a　legacy　left　to　Perseus　by　his　father；　who　was

determined　to　fight　it　out　with　Rome。　（19）



Here　as　elsewhere　he　is　not　originating　any　new　idea。　　Thucydides

had　pointed　out　the　difference　between　the　real　and　the　alleged

cause；　and　the　Aristotelian　dictum　about　revolutions；　＇Greek　text

which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　draws　the　distinction　between　cause

and　occasion　with　the　brilliancy　of　an　epigram。　　But　the　explicit

and　rational　investigation　of　the　difference　between　＇Greek　text

which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　and　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be

reproduced＇　was　reserved　for　Polybius。　　No　canon　of　historical

criticism　can　be　said　to　be　of　more　real　value　than　that　involved

in　this　distinction；　and　the　overlooking　of　it　has　filled　our

histories　with　the　contemptible　accounts　of　the　intrigues　of

courtiers　and　of　kings　and　the　petty　plottings　of　backstairs

influence　…　particulars　interesting；　no　doubt；　to　those　who　would

ascribe　the　Reformation　to　Anne　Boleyn's　pretty　face；　the　Persian

war　to　the　influence　of　a　doctor　or　a　curtain…lecture　from　Atossa；

or　the　French　Revolution　to　Madame　de　Maintenon；　but　without　any

value　for　those　who　aim　at　any　scientific　treatment　of　history。



But　the　question　of　method；　to　which　I　am　compelled　always　to

return；　is　not　yet　exhausted。　　There　is　another　aspect　in　which　it

may　be　regarded；　and　I　shall　now　proceed　to　treat　of　it。



One　of　the　greatest　difficulties　with　which　the　modern　historian

has　to　contend　is　the　enormous　complexity　of　the　facts　which　come

under　his　notice：　　D'Alembert's　suggestion　that　at　the　end　of　every

century　a　selection　of　facts　should　be　made　and　the　rest　burned　（if

it　was　really　intended　seriously）　could　not；　of　course；　be

entertained　for　a　moment。　　A　problem　loses　all　its　value　when　it

becomes　simplified；　and　the　world　would　be　all　the　poorer　if　the

Sibyl　of　History　burned　her　volumes。　　Besides；　as　Gibbon　pointed

out；　'a　Montesquieu　will　detect　in　the　most　insignificant　fact

relations　which　the　vulgar　overlook。'



Nor　can　the　scientific　investigator　of　history　isolate　the

particular　elements；　which　he　desires　to　examine；　from　disturbing

and　extraneous　causes；　as　the　experimental　chemist　can　do　（though

sometimes；　as　in　the　case　of　lunatic　asylums　and　prisons；　he　is

enabled　to　observe　phenomena　in　a　certain　degree　of　isolation）。　　So

he　is　compelled　either　to　use　the　deductive　mode　of　arguing　from

general　laws　or　to　employ　the　method　of　abstraction；　which　gives　a

fictitious　isolation　to　phenomena　never　so　isolated　in　actual

existence。　　And　this　is　exactly　what　Polybius　has　done　as　well　as

Thucydides。　　For；　as　has　been　well　remarked；　there　is　in　the　works

of　these　two　writers　a　certain　plastic　unity　of　type　and　motive；

whatever　they　write　is　penetrated　through　and　through　with　a

specific　quality；　a　singleness　and　concentration　of　purpose；　which

we　may　contrast　with　the　more　comprehensive　width　as　manifested　not

merely　in　the　modern　mind；　but　also　in　Herodotus。　　Thucydides；

regarding　society　as　influenced　entirely　by　political　motives；　took

no　account　of　forces　of　a　different　nature；　and　consequently　his

results；　like　those　of　most　modern　political　economists；　have　to　be

modified　largely　（20）　before　they　come　to　correspond　with　what　we

know　was　the　actual　state　of　fact。　　Similarly；　Polybius　will　deal

only　with　those　forces　which　tended　to　bring　the　civilised　world

under　the　dominion　of　Rome　（ix。　1）；　and　in　the　Thucydidean　spirit

points　out　the　want　of　picturesqueness　and　romance　in　his　pages

which　is　the　result　of　the　abstract　method　（＇Greek　text　which

cannot　be　reproduced＇）　being　careful　also　to　tell　us　that　his

rejection　of　all　other　forces　is　essentially　deliberate　and　the

result　of　a　preconceived　theory　and　by　no　means　due　to　carelessness

of　any　kind。



Now；　of　the　general　value　of　the　abstract　method　and　the　legality

of　its　employment　in　the　sphere　of　history；　this　is　perhaps　not　the

suitable　occasion　for　any　discussion。　　It　is；　however；　in　all　ways

worthy　of　note　that　Polybius　is　not　merely　conscious　of；　but　dwells

with　particular　weight　on；　the　fact　which　is　usually　urged　as　the

strongest　objection　to　the　employment　of　the　abstract　method　…　I

mean　the　conception　of　a　society　as　a　sort　of　human　organism　whose

parts　are　indissolubly　connected　with　one　another　and　all　affected

when　one　member　is　in　any　way　agitated。　　This　conception　of　the

organic　nature　of　society　appears　first　in　Plato　and　Aristotle；　who

apply　it　to　cities。　　Polybius；　as　his　wont　is；　expands　it　to　be　a

general　characteristic　of　all　history。　　It　is　an　idea　of　the　very

highest　importance；　especially　to　a　man　like　Polybius　whose

thoughts　are　continually　turned　towards　the　essential　unity　of

history　and　the　impossibility　of　isolation。



Farther；　as　regards　the　particular　method　of　investigating　that

group　of　phenomena　obtained　for　him　by　the　abstract　method；　he　will

adopt；　he　tells　us；　neither　the　purely　deductive　nor　the　purely

inductive　mode　but　the　union　of　both。　　In　other　words；　he　formally

adopts　that　method　of　analysis　upon　the　importance　of　which　I　have

dwelt　before。



And　lastly；　while；　without　doubt；　enormous　simplicity　in　the

elements　under　consideration　is　the　result　of　the　employment　of　the

abstrac