e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第96章
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in other years。 In effect； a one…year accounting cycle is ill…suited to the nature of this business … and that is a reality you should be aware of when you assess our annual results。
当我们在订价时，长期而言我们预期只要支付出90％收到的保费收入，当然在任何一个特定年度，我们可能大赚或是大亏，一部份的原因在于一般公认会计原则并不允许我们在没有重大灾害发生的年度提拨损失准备，以弥补其它年度一定会发生的损失，事实上以一年为期的会计期间并不适合这类的保险业务，所以换句话说当你在评断我们公司的年度绩效时，一定要特别注意到这一点。
Last year there appears to have been； by our definition； one super…cat； but it will trigger payments from only about 25％ of our policies。 Therefore； we currently estimate the 1991 underwriting profit from our catastrophe business to have been about 11 million。 （You may be surprised to learn the identity of the biggest catastrophe in 1991： It was neither the Oakland fire nor Hurricane Bob； but rather a September typhoon in Japan that caused the industry an insured loss now estimated at about 4…5 billion。 At the higher figure； the loss from the typhoon would surpass that from Hurricane Hugo； the previous record…holder。）
去年照我们的定义可能会有一件霹雳猫保单要付上我们年度保费收入的25％，因此我们预计1991年这类业务的承保获利大约是1；100万美元（或许你很好奇想要知道1991年所发生的最大灾害是什么？ 它既不是奥克兰大火也不是Bob飓风，而是九月在日本发生的台风造成的损失估计在40…50亿美元上下，若以上限估计，这个数字将超过Hugo飓风先前所创下的最高损失记录）。
Insurers will always need huge amounts of reinsurance protection for marine and aviation disasters as well as for natural catastrophes。 In the 1980's much of this reinsurance was supplied by 〃innocents〃 … that is； by insurers that did not understand the risks of the business … but they have now been financially burned beyond recognition。 （Berkshire itself was an innocent all too often when I was personally running the insurance operation。） Insurers； though； like investors； eventually repeat their mistakes。 At some point … probably after a few catastrophe…scarce years … innocents will reappear and prices for super…cat policies will plunge to silly levels。
保险业者总会需要大量的再保险来规避航海与航空以及天然灾害等意外事故，在1980年代许多再保险保单都是由外行人来承接，这些人根本就不知道这类保险的风险有多高，所以现在他们已经被烫的不省人事，（就连Berkshire在本人经营这项业务时也是如此），保险业者如同投资人一样，还是会一再重复所发生的错误，只要有一、两年意外灾害较少，就会有无知的业者跳出来以极低的价格杀价竞争抢单。
As long as apparently…adequate rates prevail； however； we will be a major participant in super…cat coverages。 In marketing this product； we enjoy a significant petitive advantage because of our premier financial strength。 Thinking insurers know that when 〃the big one〃 es； many reinsurers who found it easy to write policies will find it difficult to write checks。 （Some reinsurers can say what Jackie Mason does： 〃I'm fixed for life … as long as I don't buy anything。〃） Berkshire's ability to fulfill all its mitments under conditions of even extreme adversity is unquestioned。
然而只要市场上费率看起来合理，我们就会继续留在这一行里，而在推销这类保单时，我们所拥有的最大竞争优势就是我们的财务实力，有远见的客户都知道许多再保业者可以很轻松地接下保单，但是当重大的意外灾害接连发生时，要他们支付赔偿金可能就有点困难，（有些再保业者就像Jackie Mason所说的一样，我可以一辈子不花钱，只要我不买任何东西），相对地Berkshire在任何极端的状况下，都能够履行他所做出的承诺。
Overall； insurance offers Berkshire its greatest opportunities。 Mike Goldberg has acplished wonders with this operation since he took charge and it has bee a very valuable asset； albeit one that can't be appraised with any precision。
总的来说，保险业提供Berkshire相当大的机会，Mike Goldberg在他接手这项业务之后，就一直缔造出优异的成绩，也使得保险子公司成为我们非常宝贵的资产，虽然我们无法以精确的数字来衡量。
Marketable mon Stocks有价证券股票投资
On the next page we list our mon stock holdings having avalue of over 100 million。 A small portion of these investments belongs to subsidiaries of which Berkshire owns less than 100％。
下表是我们超过一亿美元以上的普通股投资，一部份的投资系属于Berkshire关系企业所持有）。
Shares pany Cost Market（000s omitted） 12/31/91
3；000；000 46；700；000 2；495；200 6；850；000 24；000；000 31；247；000 1；727；765 5；000；000
Capital Cities/ABC； Inc。 The Coca…Cola pany Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp GEICO Corp The Gillette pany Guinness PLC The Washington Post pany Wells Fargo & pany
517；500 1；023；920 77；245 45；713 600；000 264；782 9；731 289；431
1；300；500 3；747；675 343；090 1；363；150 1；347；000 296；755 336；050 290；000
As usual the list reflects our Rip Van Winkle approach to investing。 Guinness is a new position。 But we held the other seven stocks a year ago （making allowance for the conversion of our Gillette position from preferred to mon） and in six of those we hold an unchanged number of shares。 The exception is Federal Home Loan Mortgage （〃Freddie Mac〃）； in which our shareholdings increased slightly。 Our stay…put behavior reflects our view that the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient。 （With tongue only partly in check； I suggest that recent events indicate that the much…maligned 〃idle rich〃 have received a bad rap： They have maintained or increased their wealth while many of the 〃energetic rich〃 … aggressive real estate operators； corporate acquirers； oil drillers； etc。 … have seen their fortunes disappear。）
一如往常，以上这张表显示我们李伯大梦式的投资方式，健力士Guinness是我们最新的投资部位，至于其它七项主要的投资都持有一年以上（如果把吉列从特别股转换成普通股也包含在内的话），其中六项投资甚至连持股数都没有变动，唯一的例外是联邦家庭贷款抵押（Freddie Mac），我们投资的股数略微增加，我们以不变应万变的做法主要是反应我们把股票市场当作是财富重分配的中心，而钱通常由积极的份子流到有耐性的投资人手中，（我嘴巴可能闭的不够紧，我认为最近几件事情显示许多躺着赚的有钱人招到许多攻击，因为他们好象没做什么事就使得本身的财富暴涨，而在此同时过去那些积极活跃的有钱人，如房地产大亨、企业购并家与石油钻探大亨等，却眼睁睁地看着自己的财产一点一滴地缩水）。
Our Guinness holding represents Berkshire's first significant investment in a pany domiciled outside the United States。 Guinness； however； earns its money in much the same fashion as Coca…Cola and Gillette； U。S。…based panies that garner most of their profits from international operations。 Indeed； in the sense of where they earn their profits … continent…by…continent … Coca…Cola and Guinness display strong similarities。 （But you'll never get their drinks confused … and your Chairman remains unmovably in the Cherry Coke camp。）
我们在健力士Guinness的持股代表Berkshire第一次对海外公司进行大规模的投资，不过Guinness所赚的钱与可口可乐、吉列刮胡刀等美国公司却极为类似，主要都是仰赖国际部门的营运，确实以国际性的眼光来看，Guinness与可口可乐的获利来源有相当的共通性，（但是大家绝对不能将自己最爱的饮料搞混掉，像我个人的最爱依旧是樱桃可口可乐）。
We continually search for large businesses with understandable； enduring and mouth…watering economics that are run by able and shareholder…oriented managements。 This focus doesn't guarantee results： We both have to buy at a sensible price and get business performance from our panies that validates our assessment。 But this investment approach … searching for the superstars … offers us our only chance for real success。 Charlie and I are simply not smart enough； considering the large sums we work with； to get great results by adroitly buying and selling portions of far…from…great businesses。 Nor do we think many others can achieve long…term investment success by flitting from flower to flower。 Indeed； we believe that according the name 〃investors〃 to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one…night stands a romantic。
我们还是持续地在寻找大型的企业，那种令人容易了解、具有持续性且让人垂涎三尺的事业，并且由有能力才干并以股东利益为优先的经营阶层，虽然这些要求的重点并不一定保证结果就一定令人满意，当然我们一定要以合理的价格投资并且确保我们的被投资公司绩效表现与我们当初所评估的一致，这样的投资方法…寻找产业的超级明星，是我们唯一能够成功的机会，查理跟我的天资实在是有限，以我们目前操作的资金规模，实在是无法靠着买卖一些平凡普通的企业来赚取足够的利益，当然我们也不认为其它�
