e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第50章
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
如此的成绩使我们值得详细的描述一下，所谓的套利是指在不同的市场同时买卖相同的有价证券或是外汇，目的是为了撷取两者之间微小的差距，例如阿姆斯特丹的荷兰币、英国的英镑或是纽约的美元，有些人将此行为称之为剃头皮，但通常这一行的人惯用法国的字汇…套利。
Since World War I the definition of arbitrage … or isk arbitrage；？as it is now sometimes called … has expanded to include the pursuit of profits from an announced corporate event such as sale of the pany； merger； recapitalization； reorganization； liquidation； self…tender； etc。 In most cases the arbitrageur expects to profit regardless of the behavior of the stock market。 The major risk he usually faces instead is that the announced event won happen。
自从第一次世界大战之后，套利或者说风险套利的定义，已延伸包括从已公开的企业购并、重整再造、清算等企业活动中获利，大部分的情况下，套利者期望不管股市变动如何皆能获利，相对的他面临的主要风险是宣布的事件未如预期般发生。
Some offbeat opportunities occasionally arise in the arbitrage field。 I participated in one of these when I was 24 and working in New York for Graham…Newman Corp。 Rockwood & Co。； a Brooklyn based chocolate products pany of limited profitability； had adopted LIFO inventory valuation in 1941 when cocoa was selling for 50 cents per pound。 In 1954 a temporary shortage of cocoa caused the price to soar to over 60 cents。 Consequently Rockwood wished to unload its valuable inventory … quickly； before the price dropped。 But if the cocoa had simply been sold off； the pany would have owed close to a 50％ tax on the proceeds。
有些特别的套利机会也会偶尔出现，我记得在24岁时当时我在纽约的葛拉罕…纽曼公司上班，Rockwood一家在布鲁克林生产巧克力的公司，原则该公司自1941年开始就采用后进先出制的存货评价方式，那时可可亚每磅是50美分，到了1954年可可亚因为暂时缺货价格大涨至64美分，因此Rockwood想要把帐上价值不菲的可可亚存货在价格滑落之前变卖掉，但若是直接将这批货卖掉，所得的收益可能要支付50％左右的税金，但1954的税务法令及时公布，其中有一项不太为人知的规定，就是如果企业不是把这些存货卖掉而是直接分配给股东间接减少营运规模的话，就可以免税，因此Rockwood决定停止其贩卖可可亚奶油的业务，并将1；300万磅的可可亚豆子发还给股东，同时公司也愿意以可可亚豆子换买回部份股份，换算下来，每股可以换得80磅的豆子。
The 1954 Tax Code came to the rescue。 It contained an arcane provision that eliminated the tax otherwise due on LIFO profits if inventory was distributed to shareholders as part of a plan reducing the scope of a corporation business。 Rockwood decided to terminate one of its businesses； the sale of cocoa butter； and said 13 million pounds of its cocoa bean inventory was attributable to that activity。 Accordingly； the pany offered to repurchase its stock in exchange for the cocoa beans it no longer needed； paying 80 pounds of beans for each share。 For several weeks I busily bought shares； sold beans； and made periodic stops at Schroeder Trust to exchange stock certificates for warehouse receipts。 The profits were good and my only expense was subway tokens。
有好几个礼拜我整天忙着买进股票、换豆子，再把豆子拿去卖，并常常跑到Schroeder信托公司拿着股票凭证换取仓库保管单，获利算下来还不错，而唯一的成本费用就是地铁车票。
The architect of Rockwood restructuring was an unknown； but brilliant Chicagoan； Jay Pritzker； then 32。 If youe familiar with Jay subsequent record； you won be surprised to hear the action worked out rather well for Rockwood continuing shareholders also。 From shortly before the tender until shortly after it； Rockwood stock appreciated from 15 to 100； even though the pany was experiencing large operating losses。 Sometimes there is more to stock valuation than price…earnings ratios。
Rockwood改造计画的规划者是32岁没有名气但相当优秀的芝加哥人Jay Pritzker，若你知道Jay后来的记录，你应该就不会讶异这个动作对于公司股东有多大的益处了，在这项提议推出不久之后，虽然公司营运呈现亏损，但Rockwood的股价却从15美元涨到100美元，有时股票的价格会远远超过合理的本益比之外。
In recent years； most arbitrage operations have involved takeovers； friendly and unfriendly。 With acquisition fever rampant； with anti…trust challenges almost non…existent； and with bids often ratcheting upward； arbitrageurs have prospered mightily。 They have not needed special talents to do well； the trick； a la Peter Sellers in the movie； has simply been eing There。？In Wall Street the old proverb has been reworded： give a man a fish and you feed him for a day。 Teach him how to arbitrage and you feed him forever。？（If； however； he studied at the Ivan Boesky School of Arbitrage； it may be a state institution that supplies his meals。）
近几年来，大部分的套利操作都牵涉到购并案，不管是友善的或是敌意的皆然，在购并案狂热之时，几乎感觉不到托拉斯法的存在，投标的竞价履创天价，在当时套利客大行其道，在这行不需要太多的才能，唯一的技巧就像是Peter Sellers的电影那样，只要轧一脚就行，华尔街有一句经过改编的俗话，给一个人一条鱼，你只能养活他一餐，教他如何套利，却可以养活他一辈子，（当然要是他到学校学习套利，可能就要靠州政府过活了）
To evaluate arbitrage situations you must answer four questions： （1） How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur？ （2） How long will your money be tied up？ （3） What chance is there that something still better will transpire … a peting takeover bid； for example？ and （4） What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti…trust action； financing glitches； etc。？
在评估套利活动时，你必须要能回答四个问题（1）已公布的事件有多少可能性确实会发生？（2）你的资金总计要投入多久？（3）有多少可能更好的结果会发生，例如购并竞价提高（4）因为反托拉斯或是财务意外状况发生导致购并案触礁的机率有多高？
Arcata Corp。； one of our more serendipitous arbitrage experiences； illustrates the twists and turns of the business。 On September 28； 1981 the directors of Arcata agreed in principle to sell the pany to Kohlberg； Kravis； Roberts & Co。 （KKR）； then and now a major leveraged…buy out firm。 Arcata was in the printing and forest products businesses and had one other thing going for it： In 1978 the U。S。 Government had taken title to 10；700 acres of Arcata timber； primarily old…growth redwood； to expand Redwood National Park。 The government had paid 97。9 million； in several installments； for this acreage； a sum Arcata was contesting as grossly inadequate。 The parties also disputed the interest rate that should apply to the period between the taking of the property and final payment for it。 The enabling legislation stipulated 6％ simple interest； Arcata argued for a much higher and pounded rate。
Arcata公司我们最曲折离奇的购并经验，说明了企业的曲曲折折，1981年9月28日该公司的董事同意将公司卖给KKR公司，一家在当时同时也是现在最大的融资买断公司，Arcata所从事的是印刷与森林产品，但其中值得注意的是在1978年美国政府决定征收该公司所有10；700公顷的红木林，以扩增国家公园的范围，为此政府决定分期支付该公司总金额9；790万美元的征收款，但Arcata公司却认为金额太少，同时双方也对适用的利率也争议，Arcata极力争取更高的赔偿金与适用的利率。
Buying a pany with a highly…speculative； large…sized claim in litigation creates a negotiating problem； whether the claim is on behalf of or against the pany。 To solve this problem； KKR offered 37。00 per Arcata share plus two…thirds of any additional amounts paid by the government for the redwood lands。
买下一家具有高度争议的公司将会让公司在谈判过程中，会增加许多的难度，不管诉讼案件是不利或是有利于公司皆然，为了化解这个难题，KKR决定支付Arcata每股37美元再加上政府额外赔偿款的三分之二，作为购并的条件。
Appraising this arbitrage opportunity； we had to ask ourselves whether KKR would consummate the transaction since； among other things； its offer was contingent upon its obtainingatisfactory financing。？A clause of this kind is always dangerous for the seller： It offers an easy exit for a suitor whose ardor fades between proposal and marriage。 However； we were not particularly worried about this possibility because KKR past record for closing had been good。
在评估过这项投资机会之后，我们自问KKR能否真正完成这项交易的关键在于他们是否能够顺利取得融资，这对卖方来说永远是风险最高的一项条款，追求者在提出求婚到正式结婚的这段期间，要落跑是很容易的一件事，不过在这个案子我们却不太担心，原因在于KKR过去的记录还算不错。
We also had to ask ourselves what would happen if the KKR deal did fall through； and here we also felt reasonably fortable： Arcata management and directors had been shopping the pany for some tim
