e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第31章
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畹牟⒉皇撬撤绯担谋硐质窃凳档摹�
Candy stores are fun to visit； but most have not been fun for their owners。 From what we can learn； practically no one besides See's has made significant profits in recent years from the operation of candy shops。 Clearly； Chuck's record at See's is not due to a rising industry tide。 Rather； it is a one…of…a…kind performance。
这项成就当然需要优秀的产品，这个倒不是问题，因为我们确实拥有，但除此之外它还需要对客户衷心的服务，Chuck可以说是百分之百地为客户设想，而他的态度更直接感染到公司上下所有的员工。
His achievement requires an excellent product … which we have … but it also requires genuine affection for the customer。 Chuck is 100％ customer…oriented； and his attitude sets the tone for the rest of the See's organization。
以下是一个具体的例证，在喜斯我们通常会定期增添新的口味并删除旧的口味以维持大约一百种组合，去年我们淘汰了14种口味，结果其中有两种让我们的客户无法忘怀，而不断地表达他们对我们这种举动的不满，「愿喜斯所有做出这种卑鄙决定的相关人士嘴巴流脓长疮；愿你们新的巧克力糖在运送途中融化；愿你们吃到酸掉的糖果；愿你们的亏大钱；我们正试图寻求要求你们恢复供应原有口味的法院强制令」，总计最后我们收到好几百封的抱怨信。
Here's an example of Chuck in action： At See's we regularly add new pieces of candy to our mix and also cull a few to keep our product line at about 100 varieties。 Last spring we selected 14 items for elimination。 Two； it turned out； were badly missed by our customers； who wasted no time in letting us know what they thought of our judgment： 〃A pox on all in See's who participated in the abominable decision。。。；〃 〃May your new truffles melt in transit； may they sour in people's mouths； may your costs go up and your profits go down。。。；〃 〃We are investigating the possibility of obtaining a mandatory injunction requiring you to supply。。。；〃 You get the picture。 In all； we received many hundreds of letters。
为此Chuck不但重新推出原来的口味，他还将危机化为转机，所有来信的客户都得到完整且诚实的回复，信上是这样写的︰「虽然我们做出错误的决定，但值得庆幸的是最后得以以喜剧收场」，随信还附赠一个特别的小礼物。
Chuck not only reintroduced the pieces； he turned this miscue into an opportunity。 Each person who had written got a plete and honest explanation in return。 Said Chuck's letter： 〃Fortunately； when I make poor decisions； good things often happen as a result。。。；〃 And with the letter went a special gift certificate。 See's increased prices only slightly in the last two years。 In 1988 we have raised prices somewhat more； though still moderately。 To date； sales have been weak and it may be difficult for See's to improve its earnings this year。
过去两年喜斯糖果仅稍微地涨价，在今年（1988年）我们仍会继续调涨价格，幅度还算合理，只是截至目前为止销售持续低迷，预计今年公司盈余将难再有继续成长的可能性。
o World Book； Kirby； and the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group are all under the management of Ralph Schey。 And what a lucky thing for us that they are。 I told you last year that Scott Fetzer performance in 1986 had far exceeded the expectations that Charlie and I had at the time of our purchase。 Results in 1987 were even better。 Pre…tax earnings rose 10％ while average capital employed declined significantly。
世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特费兹制造集团皆由Ralph所领导，很高兴我们能做这样的安排，去年我曾告诉各位史考特费兹集团在我们买下公司的当年度…1986年的表现超乎预期，但去年1987年的表现更出色，税前获利成长了10％，但所耗费的资金却较前年大幅缩减。
Ralph's mastery of the 19 businesses for which he is responsible is truly amazing； and he has also attracted some outstanding managers to run them。 We would love to find a few additional units that could be put under Ralph's wing。
Ralph同时掌管19项事业的方式实在是令人叹为观止，同时他也吸引了一群优秀的经理人协助他经营事业，我们很乐意在多找一些事业交到Ralph旗下去经营。
The businesses of Scott Fetzer are too numerous to describe in detail。 Let's just update you on one of our favorites： At the end of 1987； World Book introduced its most dramatically…revised edition since 1962。 The number of color photos was increased from 14；000 to 24；000； over 6；000 articles were revised； 840 new contributors were added。 Charlie and I remend this product to you and your family； as we do World Book's products for younger children； Childcraft and Early World of Learning。
由于史考特费兹的事业范围过于繁杂，在此不便详述，这里谨就其中一项我们的最爱…世界百科全书加以介绍，去年底世界百科全书推出自1962年以来改版最多的最新版本，全套书中的彩色照片从14；000祯增加到24；000祯，超过6；000篇文章从新编写，840位作者参与；查理跟我衷心向您与您的家庭推荐包含世界百科全书与儿童工艺等一系列的套书。
In 1987； World Book unit sales in the United States increased for the fifth consecutive year。 International sales and profits also grew substantially。 The outlook is good for Scott Fetzer operations in aggregate； and for World Book in particular。
在去年该套书在美国地区销售量连续第五年成长，国外地区的销量与获利亦大幅增加，史考特费兹集团前景看好，尤其世界百科全书更是如此。
Insurance Operations
保险事业营运
Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry：
下表是我们惯用保险业主要指数的最近更新数字
Yearly Change in bined Ratio Yearly Change in GNP Deflators
Premiums Written Incurred Loss
1981 3。8％ 106。0％ 6。5％ 9。7％
1982 4。4％ 109。8％ 8。4％ 6。4％
1983 4。6％ 112。0％ 6。8％ 3。9％
1984 9。2％ 117。9％ 16。9％ 3。8％
1985 22。1％ 116。5％ 16。1％ 3。3％
1986 （Rev。） 22。2％ 108。0％ 13。5％ 2。6％
1987 （Est。） 8。7％ 104。7％ 6。8％ 3。0％
综合比率代表所有保险成本（发生损失加上费用）占保费收入的比率，一百以下表示有承保的获利，一百以上则有承保的损失，若考量保险公司利用保费收入（浮存金）所赚取的投资收益列入计算，则107到111之间大约是损益两平点，当然这是不包含公司自有资金所运用的收益。
The bined ratio represents total insurance costs （losses incurred plus expenses） pared to revenue from premiums： A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit； and one above 100 indicates a loss。 When the investment ine that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders' funds （〃the float〃） is taken into account； a bined ratio in the 107…111 range typically produces an overall break…even result； exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders。
保险事业的数字，若以上面那张简表来说明，事实上并不会太复杂，当同业平均保费收入年成长只在4％或5％徘徊，则当年承保损失一定会上升，原因不在于车祸、火灾、暴风等意外事件发生更频繁，也不是因为一般通货膨胀的关系。主要的祸首在于今天社会与司法过度膨胀，法律诉讼费用暴增，一方面是因为诉讼更频繁，一方面是由于陪审团与法官倾向扩大保险单上的保险理赔范围，若这种乱象不能加以抑止，则保险公司每年至少要有10％以上的保费收入年成长，才有办法收支打平，即使在通货膨胀相对温和的状况下也是如此。
The math of the insurance business； encapsulated by the table； is not very plicated。 In years when the industry's annual gain in revenues （premiums） pokes along at 4％ or 5％； underwriting losses are sure to mount。 That is not because auto accidents； fires； windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently； nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation。 Today； social and judicial inflation are the major culprits； the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned。 Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts； and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written。 Seeing no let…up in either trend； we continue to believe that the industry's revenues must grow at about 10％ annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability； even though general inflation may be running at a considerably lower rate。
过去三年来保费收入的大幅成长几乎可以确定今年同业的绩效都会相当不错，事实证明也是如此，不过接下来的情况可就不太妙了，根据Best's统计预估， 1988年的每季的成长率将由12。9％按季逐渐下滑至11。1％、5。7％、5。6％，可以确定的是1988年的保费成长一定会低于10％的损益两平点，很明显的好日子已经不多了。
The strong revenue gains of 1985…87 almost guaranteed the industry an excellent underwriting performance in 1987 and； indeed； it was a banner year。 But the news soured as the quarters rolled by： Best's estimates that year…over…year volume increases were 12。9％； 11。1％； 5。7％； and 5。6％。 In 1988； the revenue gain is certain to be far below our
