股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第9章
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Price Exhaustion。and Reversal
TD bo is。designed to anticipate areas。of price exhaustion。 It is。the exception rather than the rule that TD bo countdown day thirteen will coincide with the precise price exhaustion peak。or trough price bar； but often it will occur within a couple of price bars。of peak。or trough； and it will alert a trader to a market's。vulnerability to a price reversal。 Once countdown pletion has。been recorded； at a minimum； one can expect price to undergo a trading range before it is。able to resume its。trend。 However； if there is。no meaningful price response after twelve price bars。have lapsed； the likelihood of a price reversal upon TD bo countdown pletion diminishes。 Consequently； in these instances； often the market is。undergoing an interruption in the prevailing trend。 In either case； TD bo inserts。a level of discipline into a trader's。methodology。 As。is。evident in Figure 2。3； the peak。price day and volatile trading day of the entire sell setup and countdown period coincided with pletion of sell countdown and the expectation of price exhaustion and a price decline。 Very optimistic。news。regarding precious。metals。was。more than likely associated with this。trading； and that information served to entice traders。into the market and exhaust the near…term upside。
The subsequent market decline did culminate in the formation of a buy setup and； as you can see in Figure 2。5； because price perfection was。fulfilled on February 15； the same day as。the pletion of the buy setup； there was。a reflex rally of four trading days。 Then the decline resumed as。did the countdown process。 As。is。often the case； the countdown series。did not quite reach thirteen pletions； rather only ten price bars fulfilled the countdown criteria。 Once the March low was。made； price rallied and the TD bo sell setup seriesmenced； reaching the minimum requirement for pletion。 The countdown process。was。then activated； making parisons。starting with the first day of sell setup on March 24 （see Figure 2。6）。 Days。one and two of sell setup were countdown days。one and two； as。well； because their respective closes。were higher than both the highs。two days。earlier and each prior day's。close。 Additionally； each day's。high was。above the previous。day's。high； and each close was。above the previousuntdown day's。close。 Just as。the prior sell countdown series。recorded its。thirteenth pletion on its。high day of January。31； so too this。time； on May 11； the upside stopped precisely on the peak。price day。 However； note that the dose of countdown price bar thirteen was。neither above the high two price bars。earlier； a higher close than the prior day's。dose； nor above the prior countdown close。 Why did a thirteen appear above this。price bar？ Because TD bo countdown has an alternative for the thirteenth price bar； which is。referred to as the termination count。 Specifically； countdown thirteen can be recorded with the closing price relationships。as。are the other price bars。from countdowns。one through twelve； but an alternative option exists。for the open to serve as。a proxy for the closing price。 As you can see； by replacing the closing with the opening of the price bar； the countdown series。meets。the requirement for pletion thirteen。
Once the peak。is。recorded； price declines。and records。the minimum requirement for a buy setup—nine consecutive closes lower than the close four days。earlier。 The subsequent buy setup series。was。unusually steep （see Figure 2。3）。 As。a result； a high number of price bars。met the requirements。for buy countdown。 Buy setup days。one through seven were TD bo countdown price bars。as。well。 Each requirement is。identical to those applied to TD bo sell countdown but in reverse。 In other words； the close of each was。lower than the low seen two price bars。earlier and also lower than the prior price bars。close； and each countdown close was。successively lower than the previousuntdown day's。close。 Finally； each low was。lower than the prior price bars。low。 Thisparison was。applied to the subsequent countdown series； but notice that after countdown ten was。recorded and specifically countdowns。eleven and twelve； the previous。rules。were not adhered to。 TD bo version No。 2 is。more liberal than version No。 1 and allows。for the rules of countdown price bars。eleven； twelve； and thirteen to be more liberally。qualified。 Specifically； the closes。of countdowns。eleven； twelve； and thirteen must be successively lower than one another to fulfill pletion。 Once again； but in reverse； see that price exhaustion thirteen was。successful in identifying when a trend is。about to exhaust itself and result in a price reversal。
In the previous。examples； TD bo thirteen sell and buy countdown pletions coincided exactly with each trend's。price exhaustion。 Obviously； this。is。not what one should expect。 The accuracy of TD bo is。just not this。high； and to believe that this。methodology will produce such precision in other instances。is。a presumptuous。and serious。mistake because you will be sorely disappointed。 Consider such events。to be exceptions。to the ride and yourself fortunate just to have TD bo successfully identify price zones。where price might exhaust itself。
Just as。the buy setup in February did； the sell setup in May； the buy setup in June； and the sell setup in August all identified likely short…term price reversals。 All setups。were “perfected”； that is； the buy setups were acpanied by a low for price bar eight or price bar nine that was。lower than the price lows。for bars。six and seven； and the sell setups。were acpanied by a high for price bar eight or price bar nine that was。higher than the highs for price bars。six and seven。 Although in each instance the price reversals。were short term and the buy setup lows。and the sell setup highs。subsequently were exceeded； the trading opportunities existed。 We do not remend concentrating on setups； because the countdown pletions。are more likely to coincide with more significant price exhaustions and turning points。 But price setups。do provide context for trend followers； who can use them to add to positions。subsequent to these reactions； or for traders。who want to operate against the prevailing trends。
Aggressive Settings for TD bo and TD Sequential
Figure 2。3 demonstrates。how effective price…exhaustion techniques。can be in identifying market tops and bottoms。 The bane of trend followers。has。always。been lack。of liquidity； price gaps； and slippage。 By anticipating price…exhaustion zones； one is。both prepared and able to sell into market strength and buy into market weakness； which provides。a trader a distinct timing advantage。 It is。difficult psychologically。to act against the prevailing trend； but at the same time it is。more rewarding because there is。no lack。of supply。when the market is。declining； just as。there is。no shortage of demand when the market is advancing。 Although TD Sequential and TD bo are capable of identifying areas。of likely。price…trend exhaustion； when they are silent and give no indication of likely price reversal； it behooves。a trader to apply the aggressive versions。of both to gain an enhanced trading edge； because their more liberal requirements。make them more sensitive。
Both TD Aggressive Sequential。 and TD Aggressive bo。 possess。the same core parameters。as。their respective parents； TD Sequential and TD bo。 However； their countdown requirements。are less。restrictive and consequently identify price…exhaustion opportunities more frequently。 Specifically； instead of relying on TD Sequential’s。strict parison of a close versus。the high two price bars。earlier to identify upside price exhaustion and； conversely； a close versus。the low two price bars。earlier to identify。downside price exhaustion； the aggressive version merely pares。highs。to identity a likely top and lows。to do likewise at a prospective bottom。 Figure 2。7 shows。the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index （XAU） from August 1； 2005； through May 30； 2006； and illustrates。the advantage of applying TD Aggressive Sequential vis…a…vis。standard TD Sequential—the frequency of price…exhaustion occurrences increases as。do potential trading opportunities at extreme price tops and bottoms。
Although the setup series。are identical for both TD。Sequential and TD Aggressive
