股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第34章

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hart　with　a　50　point　box？　This。would　mean　50　points　in　the　direction　of　the　column　produces。a　new　box　and　150　points。against　the　direction　produces。a　reversal　and　a　new　column。　A　day　trader　could　not　possibly　make　money　with　such　an　insensitive　chart；　but　a　medium…term　investor　may　be　quite　happy　with　a　chart　drawn　with　those　parameters。　A　short…term　trader　would　be　looking　at　perhaps。a　5　point　or　10　point　box　size。　Thus；　changing　the　box　size　does　change　the　time　horizon—though　not　the　time　frame—of　the　chart。　The　smaller　the　box　size；　the　more　sensitive　the　chart；　and　the　shorter　the　time　horizon。　Typically；　a　point　and　figure　analyst　will　look。at　two；　perhaps。three　point　and　figure　charts　of　the　same　instrument　but　with　different　box　sizes。and/or　reversals。to　get　a　clearer　picture　of　what　is。happening。　

Internal　45°　Trend　Lines　
Trend　lines。may　be　drawn　in　two　ways　on　point　and　figure　charts：　either　subjectively。bynnecting　higher　lows。for　an　uptrend　or　lower　highs。for　a　downtrend；　or　objectively　by。drawing　trend　lines。at　45°　from　highs。or　lows。　These　objective　lines　are　most　effective　on　3…box　reversal　charts。and　are　rarely　used　on　1…box　charts。　It’s。a　unique　feature　of　point　and　figure　charts。because　only　point　and　figure　charts。are　drawn　on　a　squared　grid　allowing　the　45　lines　to　be　drawn　in　the　same　position　no　matter　what　the　aspect　ratio　of　the　chart。　
The　lines　are　drawn　through　the　corners。of　the　boxes。from　bottoms。and　tops；　providing　what　are　called　bullish　support　and　bearish　resistance　lines。　They　are　the　lines。that　show　the　last　level　of　support　in　an　uptrend　or　resistance　in　a　downtrend。　Evidence　shows。that　the　price　behaves。extremely　well　with　these　45°　lines；　which　are　therefore　used　to　determine　major　trend　changes。　Consider　what　is。required　to　remain　above　a　45°　trend　line：　The　price　must　rise　by　at　least　five　boxes。for　even　three　that　it　falls；　and　if　it　can't　do　that；　it　can’t　maintain　a　bull　trend。　Similarly；　to　maintain　a　45°　downtrend；　the　price　must　fall　by　at　least　five　boxes。for　every　three　that　it　rises。　
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ent　reaction　points。cluster　together。　This。is。clearly　seen　in　the　current　uptrend；　in　which　four　internal　lines。run　close　together。　This。provides。a　significant　and　important　support　area　for　the　uptrend；　which　bees。just　as。important　as　the　main　45°。uptrend　line　3；　if　not　more　so。　The　more　times。an　internal　line　is。touched；　the　more　important　ii　bees。　This　is。because　the　starting　point　of　the　line　and　the　45°。angle；　not　the　price　action；　determine　a　45°。line　position。　
The　main　advantage　of　45　trend　lines。is。that　they　are　objective；　and　no　amount　of　subjective　interpretation　or　positioning　can　influence　them。　As。you　can　see；　they　cane　up　the　chart　into　bull　and　bear　trends　and　are　very　effective　in　showing　areas。of　support　and　resistance。　

Using　Point　and　Figure　Price　Targets　Effectively　
From　the　earliest　days。of　point　and　figure　analysis；　analysts。have　been　establishing　price　targets。from　the　charts。derived　from　the　width　of　congestion　areas。　Initially；　the　targets　were　on　1…box　reversal　charts；　but　1…box　price　targets。are　less。objective　than　those　obtained　from　3…box　charts；　which　are　therefore　more　popular　today。　
There　are　two　ways。to　establish　targets。with　a　3…box　reversal　chart。　The　vertical　count　is。based　on　the　thrust　off　a　low　or　a　high；　and　the　horizontal　count　is　based　on　the　width　of　a　top　or　bottom　pattern。　The　vertical　count　is　three　times。the　length　of　the　thrust　column；　whereas。the　horizontal　count　is。three　limes。the　width　of　the　pattern。　Because　puters。now　perform　these　calculations；　the　temptation　is。to　count　even　column　and　pattern　until　one　produces　the　required　result。　Certain　rules；　however；　should　be　adhered　to。　Vertical　counts　should　be　established　only　from　the　first　thrust　off　a　low　or　a　high；　or　the　thrust　off　an　intermediate　mini…bottom　or　mini…top；　or　the　breakout　column　from　a　pattern。　Horizontal　counts；　however；　may。be　established　only　from　a　top　or　bottom　pattern　where　there　is。a　clear　column　moving　into　the　pattern　and　then　some　sidewaysngestion　and　a　clear　column　moving　out　of　the　pattern。　
Remember　that　these　are　potential　targets　and　cannot　be　achieved　with　precision。　Some　may　not　be　achieved　at　all；　in　fact；　the　last　target　in　a　trend　seldom　is。　However；　the　achievement　or　non…achievement　of　a　target　gives。important　information　about　the　strength　of　the　trend。　In　bull　trends；　all　upside　targets。should　be　achieved　or　exceeded；　whereas。downside　targets。should　not　be　reached。　In　downtrends；　all　downside　targets。should　be　achieved　or　exceeded；　whereas。upside　targets。should　not　be　reached。　So　assessing　trends　bees。an　evidence…gathering　process。　If；　during　a　bull　trend；　an　upside　target　is。not　achieved　or　is。negated；　that　is。evidence　that　the　uptrend　is。weakening。　If　at　the　same　time；　downside　targets。start　to　be　reached；　this。is。further　bearish　evidence　and　an　indication　that　the　uptrend　is。ending。　The　converse　is。true　for　downtrends；　where　evidence　that　a　downtrend　is。deteriorating　can　be　seen　when　downside　targets。are　not　achieved　or　canceled。　bined　with　the　break　of　internal　45°。lines；　using　point　and　figure　targets。this　way　allows。you　to　see　trend　deterioration　before　the　main　trend　line　is。broken。　
The　chart　in　Figure　8。4；　showing　the　top　in　the　Nasdaq；　is。a　good　example　of　how　targets。can　provide　evidence　about　the　strength　of　the　trend。　Upside　count　（a）　of　3；400　from　the　July　1999　low　was。exceeded　as。wasunt　（b）　of　1；920　from　the　October　1999　low；　indicating　a　strong　bull　trend。　At　this。stage；　everything　is。in　place　for　the　achievement　of　the　new　target　（c）　of　5；640　from　the　January　2000　low。　The　Nasdaq　turned；　however；　and　allowed　the　establishment　and　activation　of　downside　count　（d）　of　3；720　from　the　February。2000　top　and　another　count　（e）　of　3；460　from　the　second　top　in　March　2000。　At　this。stage　the　bull　trend　is　still　in　place　and　there　seems　little　likelihood　that　these　downside　counts。will　be　achieved。　But　in　April　2000；　both　downside　counts　were　achieved；　negating　the　upside　count　（c）　of　5；640　by　passing　through　the　bottom　of　the　column　from　which　that　count　was。established。　Although　the　main　45°。trend　line　（1）　is。still　intact　at　this。stage；　the　evidence　for　a　continuing　bull　trend　is。decreasing。　An　upside　count　has。been　negated；　two　downside　counts　have　been　achieved；　and　some　internal　45°。lines。have　been　breached。　
Following　the　price　action；　notice　that　two　more　upside　counts。（f）　and　（g）　of　4；660　and　5；100　were　not　achieved　but　all　the　downside　counts　（h）；　（i）；　and　（j）　of　3；280；　3；660；　and　3；620　were；　which　further　adds。to　the　bearish　evidence。　So；　long　before　bullish　support　line　
（1）　was。breached；　there　was。sufficient　bearish　evidence　available　to　make　a　decision　about　the　end　of　the　bull　trend。　
Again；　you　should　not　expect　targets。to　be　achieved　with　precision；　but　that　does　not　mean　that　targets。from　important　patterns。should　be　ignored　if　they　seem　improbable　at　the　time。　For　example；　horizontal　count　（k）　taken　across。the　large　top　between　the　October　1999　column　going　into　the　top　and　the　October　2000　column　ing　out　of　the　top　gives。a　target　of　1；080。　When　this。target　was。established　in　October　2000；　it　seemed　unlikely　that　it　would　be　achieved；　still；　it　should　not　be　ignored；　because　the　pattern　from　which　it　was　established　is。an　important　pattern　in　the　chart。　In　any　case；　before　1；080　can　be　achieved；　many　other　smaller　targets。will　have　to　be　achieved　first；　helping　to　reinforce　the　likelihood　that　1；080　will　be　achieved。　In　fact；　the　October　2002　bottom　was。within　30　points。of　the　target。　
There　are；　therefore；　two　reasons。for　establishing　and　analyzing　targets；　a　trend…evaluation　element；　determined　by　the　achievement　or　non…achievement　of　a　target；　and　a　prediction　element；　which　helps。to　assess。the　potential　price　move。　bining　the　two　is　important。　Moreover；　clustering　targets—when　two　counts　from　two　different　columns　or　patternse　in　at　a　similar　level—reinforces。both　the　chances。of　a　count　in　that　region　being　achieved　and　the　importance　of　the　information；　if　it　is。not。　


Risk…Reward　Ratios　From　a　Point　and　Figure　Chart　
The　ability　to　obtain　objective　targe