股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第26章

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d　an　understanding　of　how　these　things。work；　you　can　bine　both　lessons　and　get　a　time　and　price　forecast。　To　begin；　you　may　draw　a　trend　line　or　a　moving　average。　
Market…Testing。a　Trading。Plan　
So　far　we've　talked　only　about　a　theory；　but　you　must　acquire　some　data　and　back…test　your　theory　on　a　market。　This。should　result　in　your　developing　a　trading　plan。　You'll　have　a　percentage　of　winning　and　losing　trades。over　a　set　period　of　time。　That's。called　paper　trading。　Next　es。the　fun　part：　You　must　take　your　trading　plan　to　the　market；　and　the　market　will　tell　you　how　good　you　are。　Sometimes；　as。Jesse　Livermore　so　aptly　put　it；　〃When　the　market　moves。against　you；　it　is。like　having　an　amputation　without　anaesthetic〃。　Until　you've　market…tested　your　program；　you've　achieved　nothing。　Remember；　everything　looks。good　before　it's。tested。　I　see　this。in　building　race　cars。　In　the　shop；　everything　looks。like　a　winner。　Only　out　on　the　track　do　the　defects　e　to　light。　In　trading—as。in　racing；　or　a　business。agreement；　or　a　marriage　for　that　matter—it　all　looks　good　at　the　start。　
In　technical　analysis；　all　players。are　like　sailboats。　When　the　starting　gun　is。fired—in　this。case；　the　start　is。the　opening　bell—we're　on　our　way。　We　may　take　a　different　tack；　looking　for　that　magic　puff　of　the　wind　to　take　us。from　point　A　to　point　B　in　the　shortest　possible　time。　But　it's。not　always。the　shortest　course　that　works。best。　We're　all　heading　in　different　directions。to　the　same　finish　line。　
There　is。no　monopoly。in　market　smarts。　The　best　indicator　is。usually　the　checkbook；　but　this。is。not　always。the　case。　We　enjoy　the　process。of　winning；　but　in　most　cases。we　learn　more　from　losing。　Perhaps。that's。because　we　ponder　our　losses。more。　Never　fear　change；　but　make　sure　you　have　a　process。to　discriminate　between　changes。that　are　for　the　better　and　those　for　the　worse。　Then　follow　up　with　an　unremitting　willingness。to　shoulder　whatever　responsibility。is。required。　
You　must　have　a　passion　for　trading。　You　must　love　it；　or　you　will　never　last。　I　have　found　that　too　many　wins。usually　lead　to　a　false　sense　of　pride；　and　we　all　know　that　〃pride　eth　before　a　fall。〃　You　can　either　learn　that　lesson　at　the　start　or　have　the　market　teach　it　to　you　later　on。　
Over　the　years；　I've　found　that　many　traders。are　fighting　a　fear　of　monetary　doom；　some　sort　of　financial　Armageddon。　But　if　they　do　their　research　carefully　enough；　they　can　neutralize　this。fear。　Many　times。I've　been　broke　and　just　had　to　get　back。up　off　the　floor。　So　it　seems。reasonable　to　me　that　I　have　lost　this。〃fear　of　financial　insecurity”。　
Fears。notwithstanding；　developing　and　proving　a　good　trading　plan　is。a　must　if　you　want　to　arrive　at　the　port　called　〃financial　security。〃　Initially；　a　large　proportion　of　the　capital　you　have　on　the　table　will　be　your　own。　If　you　have　all　your　eggs　in　one　basket；　it　pays。to　watch　that　basket　carefully。　I　say　this。because　I've　done　it。　In　my　case；　it　was。necessary。　When　you　have　a　win；　make　sure　you　retain　some　of　the　profit。　Don't　keep　doubling　up　against　the　house；　because　at　some　point　the　house　is。going　to　take　the　lot。　Read　whatever　you　can　get　on　money　management。　You　will　be　told　to　risk。somewhere　between　1　percent　and　10　percent　of　your　capital。　The　hard　part　is。that　you　must　take　the　greatest　risks。when　you　start　out。　It's。a　learning　curve。　Is。it　possible　to　put　an　old　trader's。head　on　a　young　trader's。shoulders？　I'm　afraid　not。　
Your　trading　plan　is。your　ticket　for　the　trip。　Not　that　a　plan　gives。you　any　guarantee　of　financial　security；　the　point　is。far　more　important　than　that：　It’s。possible　to　pletely　lose　that　feeling　of　impending　doom　just　by　doing　your　homework。　Your　trading　plan　is。your　security。　To　paraphrase　Ludwig　Wittgenstein；　〃The　world　of　the　successful　trader　is。quite　different　from　that　of　the　unsuccessful　trader。*　
Technical　analysis。offers。a　smorgasbord　of　alternatives。　The　object　is。not　to　eat　the　lot。　The　idea　is。to　select　what　you　want。　The　methods。used　in　technical　analysis；　such　as。those　presented　in　this。book；　have　been　proven　by　each　individual's。success。　There　is。no　guarantee　that　any　of　them　will　work。exactly　the　same　way　for　you；　but　there　is。a　high　probability　that　you　will　find　something　of　value　in　your　journey　as。a　trader。　It’s。often　said　that　past　results　are　not　always。indicative　of　future　performance；　but　in　testing　a　trading　plan；　I　would　rather　see　it　produce　a　profit　than　a　loss。　Past　performance　means。something　to　me。　I　doubt　I'm　the　only　one　who　sees。it　that　way。　

Following　Gann's　Lead　
I'm　happy　that　I　took　my　first　cues　from　W。D。　Gann。　He　started　trading　on　August　15；　1902；　and　his。methods。have　stood　the　test　of　time　for　more　than　a　century。　I　have　had　to　adapt　some　of　his。lessons。to　suit　the　current　markets　and；　in　some　cases；　I've　had　to　modify　some　rides。　Not　only　do　we　have　new　financial　products。that　trade　twenty…four　hours。a　day；　but　also　many　of　the　markets。he　traded　so　successfully　no　longer　even　exist。　It's。not　a　matter　of　writing　new　rules；　it's。more　a　question　of　adapting　and　simplifying　the　old　ones　so　that　they're　workable　in　the　twenty…first　century。　The　process　is。a　bit　like　deciphering　the　da　Vinci　code；　and；　to　me；　W。D。　Gann's。methods。are　the　holy　grail　of　technical　analysis；　I　think。I　am　as。qualified　as　the　next　bloke　to　make　this。statement。　
From　the　start；　Gann　seemed　to　me　to　have　the　answers。　Sometimes。they　were　the　wrong　answers；　but　they　were　the　only。answers。available　at　that　time。　So　I　did　not　start　out　with　a　grand　plan；　nor　did　I　have　a　lot　of　money；　which　is。an　advantage。　Heaven　help　those　who　start　out　trading　futures　with　a　lot　of　money—especially　other　people's。　Since　then；　I've　made　even　possible　mistake：　I've　traded　with　borrowed　money。　I’ve　often　overtraded　my。account。　I've　traded　against　the　trend；　and　I've　traded　while　under　so　much　pressure　that　all　I　could　do　was。squeak。　
I　traded　on　my　own　from　late　in　1985　through　February　1986。　During　that　time；　I　made　some　money；　which　I　promptly　withdrew　from　the　trading　account；　basically　to　live　on。　Of　course；　I　should　have　left　the　profits。there　as。a　buffer　for　the　hard　times。that　would　surelye；　but　I　didn't。　So　when　I　look。a　hit；　all　that　I　had　to　show　for　my　six　months。of　work。was　a　margin　call。　That　nearly　ended　my　trading　career；　but　my　broker　pointed　out　that　overall　I　had　not　actually　made　a　loss。on　my　trading。　I　had　increased　the　number　of　contracts　I　was。trading；　while　decreasing　the　capital。　
As。I　pondered　all　of　this；　my　trading　account　stayed　in　arrears。　Alter　a　couple　of　weeks；　I　decided　to　put　more　money　into　the　account　and　take　one　trade　based　on　what　I'd　learned。　I　resolved　that　if　I　made　money　on　that　trade；　I　would　go　back。to　my　research　and　try。to　bee　a　successful　trader。　If　I　lost　money；　I　would　quit　for　good。　Well；　I　made　back。more　than　I'd　lost。　So　I　returned　to　my　research　feeling　like　a　winner。　Of　course；　my　victories。weren't　enough　to　keep　me　from　having　to　collect　unemployment　benefits。to　eat。　
I　thought　I　could　write　a　trading　plan　in　about　six　weeks；　but　it　took。more　than　six　months。　I　borrowed　some　money　to　open　what　I　called　a　specimen　account　and　gave　myself　three　months。to　succeed。　I　had　been　fighting　the　tax　courts。for　about　four　years。　In　the　middle　of　my　three　months。of　test　trading；　the　court　ruled　against　me　and　I　went　bankrupt；　I　lost　the　house；　the　cars；　the　works。　My　family　and　I　had　to　move　to　rental　acmodation。　So　much　for　timing。　Nobody　believed　that　I　could　trade　my　way。out　of　trouble；　but　at　the　end　of　the　three…month　trial　period；　I　had　turned　the　borrowed　30；000　into　more　than　100。000；　and　it　was。all　systems。go。　
A　Matter　of　Time　
I　succeeded　by　applying　Gann's　natural　time　secrets。　When　I　was。doing　my　work。on　the　Australian　Share　Price　Index　（SPI）　futuresntract　it　had　been　trading　for　only　two　years；　so　I　did　not　feel　I　had　nearly　enough　history　to　prove　anything。　I　decided　to　research　the　Australian　All　Ordinaries。cash；　which　had　been　in　existence　in　one　form　or　another　since　1875。　I　also　broadened　my　research　to　include　the　May　soybean　contract；　because　that　had　been　one　of　Gann's。favorites；　and　plenty　of　data　could　be　obtained　on　it。　My。plan　was　to　decipher　the　soybean