股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第2章

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Robin。Mesch；　founder　and　CEO　of　Robin　Mesch　Associates；　enables。professional　traders。and　money　managers。to　consistently　maximize　profitability　and　optimize　their　portfolios　using　her　proprietary　trading　models。and　software。　Mesch　is。a　pioneer　and　educator　in　the　field　of　technical　analysis。and　market　theory。　She　has。been　building　market　models。for　more　than　twenty　years。and　has。been　profiled　in　numerous。books。such　as。Bloomberg's。New　Thinking　in　Technical　Analysis；　Bulls；　Bears。and　Millionaires；　The　Outer　Game　of　Trading；　The　Day。Trader's。Advantage；　The　Tao　of　Trading；　and　Women　of　the　Pits。　
Bernie　Schaeffer　is。chairman　and　CF。O　of　Schaeffer's。Investment　Research；　Inc。　and　author　of　The　Option　Advisor：　Wealth…Building　Techniques　Using　Equity　and　Index　Options。（Wiley；　1997）。　He　has。edited　the　Option　Advisor　newsletter　since　its　inception　in　1981；　and　it　has。since　grown　to　be　the　nation's。leading　options。newsletter。　Schaeffer　is。widely。recognized　as。an　expert　on　equity　and　index　options；　investor　sentiment；　and　market　timing。　Timer　Digest　has。been　monitoring　him　since　1984　and　ranks。him　as　the　No。　2　Gold　Timer　for　the　past　ten　years。running　and　the　No。　5　Bond　Timer　for　the　past　ten　years。　In　2003；　Aaron　Task。of　TheStreet　selected　Schaeffer　as。the　market　〃Guru　of　the　Year。〃　Schaeffer　is。the　proud　recipient　of　the　2004　Traders’　Library　Trader's。Hall　of　Fame　Award　for　his。numerousntributions。to　the　field　of　trading。　In　addition；　Schaeffer　received　the　Best　of　the　Best　Award　from　the　Market　Technicians。Association　for　hisntributions。to　
sentiment/psychological　analysis。
。　
Yosuke　Shimizu。is。the　general　manager　of　the　investment　information　department　at　Monex；　Inc。；　which　he　joined　in　2003。　His。work。is。devoted　to　investor　education　through　the　explanation　and　analysis。of　market　activities。for　individual　investors。　Shimizu　is。also　well　known　for　his　practical　technical　analysis。techniques。acquired　through　his。sales。and　trading　experiences。at　major　securities。firms。　Previously；　he　worked　at　Daiwa　Securities。　Shimizu　is。a　member　of　the　Security　Analysts。Association　of　Japan　and　the　Nippon　Technical　Analysts　Association。　He　holds　a　BA　in　law　from　Keio　University。　

Acknowledgments　

This。book。was。a　collaboration　of　many　people；　each　lending　their　expertise　to　create　a　final　product　in　which　we　can　all　take　pride。　I　would　like　to　thank。the　following　individuals。for　their　specificntributions：　
My　wife　Carrie；　for　challenging　me；　encouraging　me；　and　sharing　this。journey。　
My　family；　for　always。reminding　me　to　〃relax　and　let　it　flow。〃　
The　hardworking　people　at　Bloomberg　Press：　Sophia　Efthimiatiou　for　her　enthusiasm　and　careful　planning。　Mary　Ann　McGuigan　and　Janet　Coleman　for　their　tireless。work。in　editing　the　content；　and　the　production　team：　Mary　Macher；　Dru…Ann　Chuchran；　and　JoAnne　Kanaval。　
Sieve　Araki　of　Bloomberg　Markets　magazine　for　his。gracious。help　wilth　the　Japanese　translation。　
The　ten　contributors。who　took。time　out　of　the　trading　day　to　lend　us。powerful　insight　into　market　dynamics。　
And　finally；　the　technical　analysts。and　traders。I　have　met　over　the　years；　who　have　taught　me　to　always。be　a　student　of　the　markets。　

Introduction　
One　day　back　in　early。2001；　I　called　an　equity　salesperson　in　Chicago　to　ask。whether　he　would　be　interested　in　meeting　to　discuss。some　technical　analysis。techniques。　He　quickly。declined；　calling　technical　analysis。a　〃voodoo　science'*　and　arguing　that　it　was。fundamental　analysis。that　truly　drives。the　markets。　
Two　years。later；　I　received　a　call　from　that　same　salesperson。　He　had　had　a　major　change　of　heart。　He　invited　me　lo　visit　him　so　that　we　could　talk。about　technical　analysis。　I　wondered　what　had　made　him　change　his。mind。　He　said　that　his。clients。had　started　observing　charts；　and　that　if　he　wanted　to　keep　their　business。he　had　to　learn　how　to　speak。their　language。　
Traveling　around　the　United　States。and　Canada　to　discuss。technical　analysis。with　traders；　fund　managers；　analysis；　and　investors；　I　have　e　to　two　conclusions：　Market　participants。today　are　using　technical　analysis。more　than　ever　before；　and　most　of　them　are　struggling　to　identity　which　techniques。they　should　be　applying　to　their　markets　of　interest。　
Every　year；　I　find　myself　spending　increasingly　more　time　talking　to　portfolio　managers。who　are　using　a　hybrid　of　fundamental　and　technical　analysis。to　identify　potential　investments。　As。a　result；　I　get　more　and　more　calls　from　salespeople　and　sales。traders；　all　scrambling　to　understand　how　to　incorporate　technical　analysis。into　their　conversations。　
Here's。how　I　introduce　technical　analysis。to　those　newly　converted　to　the　technical　approach：　Fundamental　analysis。tells。you　the　〃what〃　and　the　〃why；〃　whereas。technical　analysis。tells。you　the　〃when〃　and　the　〃how。〃　Analyzing　a　pany's。financial　statements；　the　broad　economic。picture；　and　other　fundamental　factors。helps　investors。identify　which　securities。should　be　moving　based　on　market　environment。　But　when　you　look。at　a　price　chart；　you're　peeking　into　the　minds。of　millions。of　traders。to　gauge　their　collective　psychology。　What's。more；　you're　studying　trends。and　momentum　to　see　how　traders。have　reacted　to　historical　events。and　news。flow。　That's。why　investing　without　looking　at　a　chart　puts。you　at　a　major　disadvantage。　
One　of　the　questions。I　pose　at　the　beginning　of　seminars。is。〃Does。technical　analysis　work　because　people　use　it；　or　do　people　use　it　because　it　works？〃　The　first　part　of　that　question　positions。technical　analysis。as。a　self…fulfilling　prophecy—if　enough　people　expect　a　certain　price　movement　and　make　trades。in　anticipation　of　that　movement；　then　the　price　will　move　as。a　result　of　their　own　actions。　The　second　part　suggests。that　there　is。in　fact　value　in　technical　analysis。as。a　method　of　breaking　down　investor　sentiment　and　market　psychology。over　lime。　
All　of　the　authors。in　this。book。have　developed　certain　techniques。that　have　helped　them　to　successfully　trade　and　analyze　various。global　markets。　This。book　is。designed　to　bring　their　ideas。together　and　help　von　draw　on　their　experiences。and　incorporate　their　concepts。into　your　own　trading。　
In　planning　the　book；　I　realized　that　although　more　and　more　investors。had　broadened　their　approach　to　allow　for　international　markets；　the　existing　technical　analysis。literature　was。still　quite　localized。　In　meeting　with　technical　analysts。and　traders。from　around　the　world　and　from　organizations。such　as。the　Market　Technicians。Association；　I've　learned　that　each　region　has。its。own　experts。who　have　successfully　tailored　their　technical　strategies　to　the　local　markets。　
The　goal　for　the　book。was。to　assemble　some　of　the　top　minds。in　the　field　from　all　parts　of　the　world　and　have　them　share　their　insights。into　how　price　and　volume　analysis。can　help　investors。identify　profitable　trading　opportunities。　The　end　result　is。a　powerful　illustration　of　how　interrelated　the　financial　markets。really　are：　it's。also　a　testament　to　the　global　reach　of　technical　analysis。as。a　language　of　the　markets。　
Each　chapter　in　Breakthroughs。in　Technical　Analysis。is。intended　to　stand　independently。　You　can　study　a　single　chapter；　and　then　apply　those　concepts。to　your　own　charts。and　markets。before　you　move　on　to　another。　Keep　in　mind　that　although　the　author　may　be　writing　about；　say；　Australian　index　futures　or　U。S。　Treasury　spreads；　the　concepts　discussed　can　be　readily　applied　to　any。market；　and　often　on　different　time　periods　than　those　discussed　in　the　chapter。　
We　start　with　Ted　Hearne's。discussion　of　a　technique　called　〃Drummond　Geometry〃　as。applied　to　the　foreign　exchange　markets。　You'll　find　it's。a　great　breakdown　of　how　open/high/low/close　data　can　be　used　to　identify　support　and　resistance；　meaning　levels。at　which　the　price　tends。to　reverse。　His。examples。demonstrate　the　value　of　studying　different　lime　dames。（that　is：　daily；　weekly；　monthly；　etc。）　to　see　how　short…term　price　moves。flit　into　the　long…term　trend。　
Tom　DeMark。goes。to　great　lengths。to　analyze　price　trends。and　ways。in　which　markets。reverse　direction。　In　his。chapter；　DeMark。discusses　one　of　his。market…timing　techniques；　TD　bo　。。　Although　many　traders。have　worked　with　TD　Sequential　。；　one　of　DeMark's。other　indicators；　this。chapter　show