股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第14章

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fifty　pence—the　chart　will　have　a　horizontal　at　50　because　the　bid　is。there。　And　if　the　bid　is。upped　to　sixty　pence；　the　lows。will　immediately　be　limited　at　this。point。　
Look。at　charts；　imagine　what　people　are　thinking。　Remember：　They　are　voting　with　their　pockets。　
The　name　technical　analysis。sounds。very　scientific。and　rational。　It　isn't。　Nor　are　the　markets。we　endeavor　to　follow。　Like　classic。cars。and　golf　club　memberships；　there　is。a　lot　more　to　the　value　at　which　these　change　hands。than　purely　financial　considerations。　
The　more　confident　you　grow　with　any　new　technique；　the　more　likely　you　are　to　tinker　with　it。　Confidence　begets。creativity。　Think　of　Renaissance　painters。and　Greek　philosophers。　When　working　within　very　tight　constraints；　the　truly　gifted　can　and　will　e　up　with　something　stunning　and　original。　My。Japanese　colleagues。astonishingly。use　hourly。candles；　particularly　with　things。like　/Yen　and　the　Nikkei　225。　Try　these　and　see　what　you　think。　I　have　had　fifty…fifty　results。with　this。so　far；　not　nearly　close　to　my　usual　standards。　Often　it　can　be　worth　sticking　with　the　crowd。　
When　dealing　with　financial　markets；　self…knowledge　and　a　sense　of　perspective　are　the　most　difficult　things。to　master；　as。is。knowing　when　to　pounce　and　when　to　stand　back　and　be　patient。　With　technical　analysis；　you'll　e　to　distinguish　between　unnecessary。〃noise〃　and　indications　the　market　is。about　to　move。　
As。you　can　see；　this。chapter　is。a　mix　of　new　（to　us　Westerners）　technical　analysis。and　down…home　advice。　Which　is。the　most　important？　The　basics；　of　course。　But　I　have　added　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo　to　my　armory；　and　I　hope　you　will　too。　

CHAPTER。4　

Reading　Candlestick　Charts　
YOSUKh　SHIMIZU　
T　
here　are　many　different　kinds。of　stock。charts。in　use；　but　candlesticks。are　probably　the　most　mon　form　in　Japan。　The　name　candlestickses　from　the　practice　of　representing　price　movements。with　white　and　black。sticks。that　look　like　candles；　particularly。the　form　with　a　white　box　on　the　bottom　and　a　thin　line　extending　upward。　
This　style　of　charting　isnsidered　to　have　its。roots　in　the　Edo…period　rice　markets。of　Dojima　（near　modern…day　Osaka）。　Historians。estimate　that　they　took。their　present　form　in　the　latter　half　of　the　Meiji　period　（late　1800s）。　Originally；　they　were　just　sticks。drawn　in　red　or　black。　

What　Are　Candlesticks？　
Let’s。start　by　looking　at　how　candlesticks。are　drawn。　Figure　4。1　is。a　list　of　fictitious　intraday　stock。price　movements。　

If　prices。move　in　order　from　1　to　30；　they　produce　a　line　graph　like　the　one　marked　No。　1　in　Figure　4。2；　which　we　can　express。as。a　candlestick；　as。shown　by　No。　2。　
If　the　movement　were　like　the　chart　in　Figure　4。3；　the　candlestick　would　be　colored　black。　A　black。candlestick。indicates。that　the　opening　price　was。higher　than　the　closing　price。　In　other　words；　prices。spent　the　day　more　or　less。sliding　downward。　This。is。called　a　black　candlestick。　The　same　charting　technique　can　be　applied　to　yearly　price　movements　as。well。　
The　difference　between　a　white　candlestick。and　a　black。candlestick。is。whether　the　opening　price　（the　first　price　of　the　session）　was。higher　than　the　closing　price　（the　last　price　of　the　session）。　As　Figure　4。4　shows；　if　the　closing　price　is。lower　than　the　opening　price；　a　black。candlestick　is。used；　if　it　is。higher；　a　white　candlestick。　The　lines。extending　out　from　the　black。or　white　bodies。are　called　shadows。and　represent　the　price　extremes。（highest　and　lowest　prices）　during　the　day。　
In　a　daily　chart；　a　single　black。or　white　candle　expresses。price　movements。for　a　single　day；　in　a　weekly　chart；　a　single　candle　expresses。price　movements　for　an　entire　week；　in　a　monthly　chart；　for　an　entire　month。　Chart*　can　be　drawn　in　almost　any　increment。　Some　traders。even　use　one…minute　and　live…minute　charts。　
Regardless。of　the　time　frame；　the　form　of　the　candlestick。and　itsbination　with　other　candlesticks。can　be　used　to　identify　the　market's。direction　and　its。relative　strength　or　weakness。　That　is。the　main　purpose　of　candlestick。charts。　


How　to　Read　Candlesticks　

Candlesticks。express。stock。price　movements。over　a　set　period　of　time　（ordinarily　either　one　day　or　one　week）。　Each　stick。will　have　a　different　shape　and　color　（black。equals。a　downtrend；　white　equals。an　uptrend）；　and　each　means　something　different。　For　example；　if　there　is。a　long　white　box；　one　might　surmise　that　the　same　price　trend　will　continue　and　prices。will　rise　even　higher　the　next　day。　

If　a　stock。experiences。selling　after　it　opens；　later　rises。higher；　but　closes。the　day　at　the　same　price　as。the　opening　price　（the　very　first　price　of　the　day）；　one　might　conclude　that　the　market　is。having　difficulty　deciding　on　a　direction。　
In　other　words；　each　candlestick。has。a　meaning　and　tells。a　story。　There　are　twelve　basic。types。of　candlesticks。（see　Figure　4。5）。　Let's　look。closer　at　their　meanings。and　what　their　binations　have　to　say　about　market　direction。　
The　twelve　types。of　candlesticks。break。down　into　three　basic。categories。　
。　
While　candlesticks。　The　closing　price　was。higher　than　the　opening　price　（Nos。　1…4　in　Figure　4。5）。　

。　
Black。candlesticks。　The　opening　price　was。higher　than　the　closing　price　（Nos。　5…8　in　Figure　4。5）。　

。　
Doji。　The　opening　price　and　the　closing　price　were　the　same；　forming　a　crossbar　figure　（Nos。　9…12　in　Figure　4。5）。　


Within　these　categories；　there　are　many　different　shapes。　For　example；　a　large　white　box　with　no　shadows；　called　a　marubozu　（shaved）　candlestick。（No。　1　in　Figure　4。5）；　indicates　that　the　closing　price　was。far　higher　than　the　opening　price。　
Candlesticks。also　can　differ　in　the　length　of　their　shadows；　whether　they　have　shadows。or　not；　and　in　the　size　of　the　real　body　itself。　Each　candlestick。offers。a　hint　about　what　is。likely　to　happen　next。　

Ordinarily；　a　while　candlestick。indicates。that　prices。may　be　higher　the　next　day　and　is　therefore　bullish；　whereas。a　black。candlestick。is。bearish　and　indicates。that　prices。may　fall　（see　Figure　4。6）。　Other　shapes。indicate　reversal　points。　Examples。include　doji　and　spinning　tops；　that　is；　very　narrow　real　bodies；　indicating　a　narrow　range　between　the　opening　and　closing　prices。（see　Figure　4。7）。　However；　you　have　to　be　careful。　Candlestick。meanings。are　contextual。　The　meanings。of　candlestick。shapes。differ　depending　on　whether　they　appear　near　the　top　of　the　range　or　the　bottom。　Meanings。will　also　differ　if　several　candlesticks。are　clustered　together。　In　other　words；　a　specific。group　of　candlesticks。can　indicate　either　an　extremely　bullish　market　or　an　extremely　bearish　one。　


Reversal　Patterns　
It　is。possible　to　use　candlestick。analysis。to　discover　market　turning　points—the　tops。and　the　bottoms。　One　approach　is。to　look。for　distinctive；　easily　seen　patterns。that　mark。a　top　or　bottom。　The　other　is。to　examine　whether　tops。and　bottoms。have　predictable　patterns。　In　practice；　its。difficult　to　make　judgments。from　a　single　pattern。　A　single*　pattern　may　have*　two；　opposite；　meanings；　depending　on　whether　it　es。after　the　market　has。made　a　substantial　rise　or　a　substantial　fall　（in　fact；　the　meaning　is。the　same　in　that　the　pattern　indicates。a　market　reversal；　but　it　means。the　opposite　in　the　sense　of　going　up　or　going　down）。　The　key；　therefore；　is。to　examine　not　only　the　shape　but　also　the　timing　of　the　pattern。　
Takuri　and　Hanging。Man。Shapes　
Takuri　and　hanging　man　shapes；　with　a　small　real　body　（the　rectangular　portion）　and　an　extremely　long　lower　shadow；　are　often　seen　at　the　bottom　of　the　market。　Some　examples。are　found　in　Figure　4。8。　They　can　be　quickly　spotted　in　real　charts。　The　point　to　watch　is。the　lower　shadow。　The　relative　size　of　the　real　body　is。not　that　important；　nor　is。the　color—white　or　black—or　the　presence　of　a　short　upper　shadow。　As。long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。noticeably　long；　it　fits。the　pattern。　Takuri。　Strictly　speaking；　takuri　refers。to　a　black。candlestick。that　opens　low　and　has。a　long　lower　shadow　and　a　small　real　body；　but　it　can　also　be　a　white　candlestick。and　can　have　a　bit　of　an　upper　shadow　or　a　large　real　body；　as　long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。substantially　longer　than　the　real　body。　Takuri　also　covers。doji　shapes。like　the　dragonfly。and　the　hammer；　in　which　the　open　and　close　are　the　same；　as