股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第13章

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


ot　all　day　long；　but　for　the　closing　price　of　today；　the　only　data　plotted）。　This。is。especially。strong　support　if　the　elements。cluster　together。　Interestingly；　if　the　market　was。moving　into　a　congestion　zone　twenty…six　days。ago；　then　probably　today's；　tomorrow's；　and　the　next　week's。worth　of　price　action　will　be　range…bound；　halting；　and　difficult。　This。is。because　the　old　candles。（especially　their　real　bodies）　limit　current　price　action　as。the　Lagging　Span　snakes。its。way　through　them。　I　don't　actually　know　how　or　why　this。works。　This。is。what　the　theory　says。and；　having　used　the　method　extensively；　I　can　say。that　it　really。does。work。quite　often。　Additionally；　this。is。a　theory　that　Mr。　Hosoda　back…tested　extensively　before　sharing　it　with　the　world。　
Could　this。be　a　self…fulfilling　theory？　Do　so　many　people　use　this。method　that　they。actually　create　it　by　their　actions？　The　evidence　is。against　this。　First；　paratively。speaking；　only　a　few　of　the　world's。technical　analysts。use　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo。　However；　in　Japan；　the　situation　is。reversed。　So　many　Japanese　dealersnstantly　refer　to　screens　with　this。type　of　chart　that　I　would　be　negligent　if　I　were　to　ignore　the　clouds。in　these　sectors。and　markets。　
Since　January　2004；　as。demonstrated　in　Figure　3。6；　the　U。S。　dollar/pound　currency。pair　has。been　moving　sideways。in　a　very　broad　band　between　1。7000　and　1。9200　（most　of　the　time）。　From　April　2006　to　date　it　has。been　trending　higher；　with　a　lengthy　consolidation　period　from　mid…May　to　late　July。　
Here's。how　the　different　Ichimoku　Kinko　tools。work。in　this。chart。　
Moving　average　crossovers。have　captured　the　significant　moves。throughout　but　are　mixed　at　the　moment。　The　Base　Line　is。often　flat。　
The　cloud；　which　was。incredibly　thin　until　early　April；　nevertheless。manages。to　keep　the　cable　（a　nickname　for　the　exchange　rate　between　the　U。S。　dollar　and　British　pound）　below　it。　Note　the　hammer　candle　on　April　3。　A　clear　break。and　daily　close　above　the　top　of　the　cloud　on　April　17　kicks。off　a　strong　rally。with　the　nine…day　average　limiting　the　lows。of　the　candles　on　the　way。up。　

The　moving　averages。cross。over　on　June　7；　and　prices。slide　suddenly　to　their　lowest　levels。in　a　month。　The　top　of　the　cloud　supports。the　candles。in　mid…June；　but　they　then　drop　to　the　lower　edge　of　what　is。by　then　a　fat　cloud　with　an　almost　horizontal　Leading　Span　2。　For　the　next　month　（until　July　26）　the　cable　snakes　its。way　sideways。limited　both　on　the　upside　and　on　the　downside　by　the　Leading　Spans。　Midway　through　this。period　the　averages。turn　bullish；　and　both　of　these　then　limit　daily　lows　until　September　5；　by　which　time　the　Leading　Spans。cross。　
Septembers。dip　to　1。8600　was。again　stopped　by　the　bottom　of　the　cloud；　and　the　last　prices。on　the　chart　are　just　above　the　top　of　it。　The　cloud　gets。fatter；　again　with　a　horizontal　lower　edge；　and　this　may　allow　the　pound　to　creep　higher　even　if　the　moving　averagesntinue　to　flip　around　each　other。　
The　lagging　Span；　not　surprisingly；　was。not　very　helpful　when　prices。were　moving　broadly　sideways。　Note　however　that　on　June　12　the　cloud　pushed　this。black。line　decidedly。higher；　acting　as。support　for　prices。on　July　17。　Also　look。at　August　7；　where　the　twenty…six…day　average　pushes。the　Lagging　Span　up　again。　At　the　time　of　writing　（mid…September　2006）；　the　Lagging　Span　is。under　the　candles。of　twenty…six　days　ago；　suggesting　we　may。snake　slowly　sideways　under　these　for　another　two　weeks。　
The　outlook；　according　to　this。chart：　Generally　we　expect　the　cable　to　move　very　slowly。higher　over　the　next　month；　possibly　more　quickly　if　the　averages。turn　clearly　bullish。　
Support　levels：　
1。8770　（top　of　the　cloud　but　note　this。moves。higher　until　mid…October）　
1。8660　（twenty…six…day。average　twenty…six　days。ago　for　the　Lagging　Span）　
1。8600　（the　bottom　of　the　cloud）　
Figure　3。7　charts。the　S&P　500。　Since　March　2003；　the　trend　has。been　decidedly。bullish；　with　lengthy　periods。of　consolidation　along　the　way。　A　moving　average　crossover　trading　strategy　would　have　kept　you　invested　most　of　the　time；　except　for　a　fairly　long　spell　from　June　to　October　2004。　The　averages。also　switched　briefly　to　a　short　position　between　April　and　July　2005　and　in　June　2006。　

The　clouds。have　worked　admirably；　the　index　clinging　to　the　top　edge　of　these　on　most　pullbacks。　Since　February　2005　the　cloud　has。been　a　lot　thinner　than　in　previous。years；　but　even　so　has。provided　support。　Note　that　the　Leading　Spans。have　never　crossed　over。　
The　Lagging　Span　has。held　above　the　twenty…six…week　moving　average　throughout；　bouncing　strongly　from　it　in　February　2004；　April　2005；　and　January　2006。　
Looking　ahead　to　September　2006；　the　nine…week。average　crossed　over　the　twenty…six…week。one；　so　perhaps。the　S&F。500　will　start　to　climb　higher　again；　helped　along　by　the　top　of　the　cloud　which　is。also　rising　slightly。　However；　prices。might　initially　drop　to　or　into　the　cloud；　meaning　that　the　averages。will　turn　down　again。　The　reality　is。that　these　two　might　whip　around　each　other　for　quite　some　time；　which　suggests。that　the　moving　average　crossover　system　should　go　on　the　back。burner　for　now。　The　Lagging　Span　is。just　above　the　top　of　the　candles。themselves；　and　so　may　provide　support　for　current　prices。　To　conclude；　there　will　be　very　gently　rising　prices；　but　watch　out　in　January　2007　as。the　cloud　bees　thin。　
pared　to　most　so…called　trending　systems；　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo　can　work。very　well　in　a　congestion　zone　（with　minor　adaptations）。　As。Figure　3。8　shows；　the　/Yen　has。been　in　a　bull　market。　In　September　2006；　it　started　moving　sideways。　The　upper　edge　of　the　cloud　is。the　first　support　（after　the　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　averages）；　and　the　lower　edge　of　the　cloud　is。the　key　support。　Leading　Span　1　（the　upper　edge　of　the　cloud）　will　hold　dips　most；　but　not　all；　of　the　time。　Prices。will　dip　into　the　shaded　area　and　then　rally　ahead　of　Leading　Span　2。　The　market　will　often　then　creep　erratically　within　the　cloud；　moving　slowly。between　its。two　edges。　I　included　this。fairly　recent　chart　here　so　you　can　judge　the　usefulness。of　these　techniques。for　yourself。　Had　I　included　only　historical　charts；　I　would　have　given　the　impression　that　the　system　always。works；　I　hope　you　will　discover　how　well　the　system　works。as。events。unfold。　

Taking　a　larger　perspective　on　the　markets；　I've　found　that　while　it　may　be　useful　to　have　some　sort　of　road　map　and　some　idea　of　how　far　along　you　have　e；　it's。smart　to　be　flexible。　Do　not　get　obsessed　with　terrorist　threats；　economic。slowdown；　and　house…price　bubbles。　Look。also　at　information　and　chart　patterns。that　contradict　your　view；　not　just　the　ones。that　support　it。　Also　try　to　find　as。many　parts。of　the　puzzle　that　fit　together　as　you　can；　but　think。more　carefully　about　the　ones。that　do　not。　Look。at　similar　and　related　instruments。to　see　if　the　movesnfirm　each　other。　So　if　the　cable　looks。as　though　it　is　going　up；　then　/Yen　should　be　on　its。way　down。　If　copper　is。at　a　record　high；　then　other　base　metals。should　be　on　the　expensive　side。　Do　not　try　to　force　a　piece　of　the　puzzle　in；　but　try　to　look。at　it　from　a　different　perspective。　Being　a　bit　of　a　contrarian　myself；　I　enjoy　questioning　conventional　wisdom　and　often　trade　against　prevailing　views。　This。often　works。well；　as。too　much　has　been　priced　into　the　market　way　ahead　of　the　expected　date。　
I　will　conclude　with　some　advice。　
Charts。are　all　about　reading　psychology　and　smelling　raw　emotion。　Do　not　forget　this。　
Do　not　think。that　you　can　move　into　or　out　of　any　financial　instrument　with…out　causing　ripples。（or　tidal　waves。at　times）。　Everything　you　think；　do；　and　feel　makes。the　market。　Alter　all；　any　market　is。the　sum　total　of　our　actions；　hopes；　and　fears。　
Some　markets；　like　foreign　exchange；　are　huge。　Changing　money　for　your　holiday　will　have　practically　zero　effect。　But　consider　that　there　are　hundreds　of　thousands　of　these　small　transactions。going　on　every　day　and　the　cumulative　amounts。do　matter。　In　tiny。markets—tightly　owned　shares。in　a　small　pany；　for　example—the　impact　is。far　greater　and　more　immediate。　Say　private　equity　pany　X　has。decided　to　amass。a　significant　stake　in　Y　at　fifty　pence—the　chart　will　have　a　horizontal　at　50　because　the　bid　is。there。　And　if　the　bid　is。uppe