wealbk01-第65章

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lower　than　before　that　reduction；　is；　probably；　at　least　ten　per

cent　lower　than　it　would　have　been　had　the　Court　of　Spain

continued　to　exact　the　old　tax。

　　　　　That；　notwithstanding　this　reduction；　the　value　of　silver

has；　during　the　course　of　the　present　century；　begun　to　rise

somewhat　in　the　European　market；　the　facts　and　arguments　which

have　been　alleged　above　dispose　me　to　believe；　or　more　properly

to　suspect　and　conjecture；　for　the　best　opinion　which　I　can　form

upon　this　subject　scarce；　perhaps；　deserves　the　name　of　belief。

The　rise；　indeed；　supposing　there　has　been　any；　has　hitherto　been

so　very　small　that　after　all　that　has　been　said　it　may；　perhaps；

appear　to　many　people　uncertain；　not　only　whether　this　event　has

actually　taken　place；　but　whether　the　contrary　may　not　have　taken

place；　or　whether　the　value　of　the　silver　may　not　still　continue

to　fall　in　the　European　market。

　　　　　It　must　be　observed；　however；　that　whatever　may　be　the

supposed　annual　importation　of　gold　and　silver；　there　must　be　a

certain　period　at　which　the　annual　consumption　of　those　metals

will　be　equal　to　that　annual　importation。　Their　consumption　must

increase　as　their　mass　increases；　or　rather　in　a　much　greater

proportion。　As　their　mass　increases；　their　value　diminishes。　They

are　more　used　and　less　cared　for；　and　their　consumption

consequently　increases　in　a　greater　proportion　than　their　mass。

After　a　certain　period；　therefore；　the　annual　consumption　of

those　metals　must；　in　this　manner；　become　equal　to　their　annual

importation；　provided　that　importation　is　not　continually

increasing；　which；　in　the　present　times；　is　not　supposed　to　be

the　case。

　　　　　If；　when　the　annual　consumption　has　become　equal　to　the

annual　importation；　the　annual　importation　should　gradually

diminish；　the　annual　consumption　may；　for　some　time；　exceed　the

annual　importation。　The　mass　of　those　metals　may　gradually　and

insensibly　diminish；　and　their　value　gradually　and　insensibly

rise；　till　the　annual　importation　become　again　stationary；　the

annual　consumption　will　gradually　and　insensibly　accommodate

itself　to　what　that　annual　importation　can　maintain。　

　　　　　GROUNDS　OF　THE　SUSPICION　THAT　THE　VALUE　OF　SILVER　STILL

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　CONTINUES　TO　DECREASE　

　　　　　The　increase　of　the　wealth　of　Europe；　and　the　popular　notion

that；　as　the　quantity　of　the　precious　metals　naturally　increases

with　the　increase　of　wealth　so　their　value　diminishes　as　their

quantity　increases；　may；　perhaps；　dispose　many　people　to　believe

that　their　value　still　continues　to　fall　in　the　European　market；

and　the　still　gradually　increasing　price　of　many　parts　of　the

rude　produce　of　land　may　confirm　them　still　further　in　this

opinion。

　　　　　That　that　increase　in　the　quantity　of　the　precious　metals；

which　arises　in　any　country　from　the　increase　of　wealth；　has　no

tendency　to　diminish　their　value；　I　have　endeavoured　to　show

already。　Gold　and　silver　naturally　resort　to　a　rich　country；　for

the　same　reason　that　all　sorts　of　luxuries　and　curiosities　resort

to　it；　not　because　they　are　cheaper　there　than　in　poorer

countries；　but　because　they　are　dearer；　or　because　a　better　price

is　given　for　them。　It　is　the　superiority　of　price　which　attracts

them；　and　as　soon　as　that　superiority　ceases；　they　necessarily

cease　to　go　thither。

　　　　　If　you　except　corn　and　such　other　vegetables　as　are　raised

altogether　by　human　industry；　that　all　other　sorts　of　rude

produce；　cattle；　poultry；　game　of　all　kinds；　the　useful　fossils

and　minerals　of　the　earth；　etc。；　naturally　grow　dearer　as　the

society　advances　in　wealth　and　improvement；　I　have　endeavoured　to

show　already。　Though　such　commodities；　therefore；　come　to

exchange　for　a　greater　quantity　of　silver　than　before；　it　will

not　from　thence　follow　that　silver　has　become　really　cheaper；　or

will　purchase　less　labour　than　before；　but　that　such　commodities

have　become　really　dearer；　or　will　purchase　more　labour　than

before。　It　is　not　their　nominal　price　only；　but　their　real　price

which　rises　in　the　progress　of　improvement。　The　rise　of　their

nominal　price　is　the　effect；　not　of　any　degradation　of　the　value

of　silver；　but　of　the　rise　in　their　real　price。　

　　　　　DIFFERENT　EFFECTS　OF　THE　PROGRESS　OF　IMPROVEMENT　UPON　THREE

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　DIFFERENT　SORTS　OF　RUDE　PRODUCE　

　　　　　These　different　sorts　of　rude　produce　may　be　divided　into

three　classes。　The　first　comprehends　those　which　it　is　scarce　in

the　power　of　human　industry　to　multiply　at　all。　The　second；　those

which　it　can　multiply　in　proportion　to　the　demand。　The　third；

those　in　which　the　efficacy　of　industry　is　either　limited　or

uncertain。　In　the　progress　of　wealth　and　improvement；　the　real

price　of　the　first　may　rise　to　any　degree　of　extravagance；　and

seems　not　to　be　limited　by　any　certain　boundary。　That　of　the

second；　though　it　may　rise　greatly；　has；　however；　a　certain

boundary　beyond　which　it　cannot　well　pass　for　any　considerable

time　together。　That　of　the　third；　though　its　natural　tendency　is

to　rise　in　the　progress　of　improvement；　yet　in　the　same　degree　of

improvement　it　may　sometimes　happen　even　to　fall；　sometimes　to

continue　the　same；　and　sometimes　to　rise　more　or　less；　according

as　different　accidents　render　the　efforts　of　human　industry；　in

multiplying　this　sort　of　rude　produce；　more　or　less　successful。　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　FIRST　SORT　

　　　　　The　first　sort　of　rude　produce　of　which　the　price　rises　in

the　progress　of　improvement　is　that　which　it　is　scarce　in　the

power　of　human　industry　to　multiply　at　all。　It　consists　in　those

things　which　nature　produces　only　in　certain　quantities；　and

which；　being　of　a　very　perishable　nature；　it　is　impossible　to

accumulate　together　the　produce　of　many　different　seasons。　Such

are　the　greater　part　of　rare　and　singular　birds　and　fishes；　many

different　sorts　of　game；　almost　all　wild…fowl；　all　birds　of

passage　in　particular；　as　well　as　many　other　things。　When　wealth

and　the　luxury　which　accompanies　it　increase；　the　demand　for

these　is　likely　to　increase　with　them；　and　no　effort　of　human

industry　may　be　able　to　increase　the　supply　much　beyond　what　it

was　before　this　increase　of　the　demand。　The　quantity　of　such

commodities；　therefore；　remaining　the　same；　or　nearly　the　same；

while　the　competition　to　purchase　them　is　continually　increasing；

their　price　may　rise　to　any　degree　of　extravagance；　and　seems　not

to　be　limited　by　any　certain　boundary。　If　woodcocks　should　become

so　fashionable　as　to　sell　for　twenty　guineas　apiece；　no　effort　of

human　industry　could　increase　the　number　of　those　brought　to

market　much　beyond　what　it　is　at　present。　The　high　price　paid　by

the　Romans；　in　the　time　of　their　greatest　grandeur；　for　rare

birds　and　fishes；　may　in　this　manner　easily　be　accounted　for。

These　prices　were　not　the　effects　of　the　low　value　of　silver　in

those　times；　but　of　the　high　value　of　such　rarities　and

curiosities　as　human　industry　could　not　multiply　at　pleasure。　The

real　value　of　silver　was　higher　at　Rome；　for　some　time　before　and

after　the　fall　of　the　republic；　than　it　is　through　the　greater

part　of　Europe　at　present。　Three　sestertii；　equal　to　about

sixpence　sterling；　was　the　price　which　the　republic　paid　for　the

modius　or　peck　of　the　tithe　wheat　of　Sicily。　This　price；　however；

was　probably　below　the　average　market　price；　the　obligation　to

deliver　their　wheat　at　this　rate　being　considered　as　a　tax　upon

the　Sicilian　farmers。　When　the　Romans；　therefore；　had　occasion　to

order　more　corn　than　the　tithe　of　wheat　amounted　to；　they　were

bound　by　capitulation　to　pay　for　the　surplus　at　the　rate　of　four

sestertii；　or　eightpence　sterling；　the　peck；　and　this　had

probably　been　reckoned　the　moderate　and　reasonable；　that　is；　the

ordinary　or　average　contract　price　of　those　times；　it　is　equal　to

about　one…and…twenty　shillings　the　quarter。　Eight…and…twenty

shillings　the　quarter　was；　before　the　late　years　of　scarcity；　the

ordinary　contract　price　of　English　wheat；　w