war and the future-第43章

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belief；　in　spite　of　hundreds　of　adverse　phenomena；　that　the
religious　and　social　stir　of　these　times　must　ultimately　go　far
to　unify　mankind　under　the　kingship　of　God；　so　do　I　cling　also　to
the　persuasion　that　there　are　intellectual　forces　among　the
rational　elements　in　the　belligerent　centres；　among　the　other
neutrals　and　in　America；　that　will　co…operate　in　enabling　the
United　States　to　play　that　role　of　the　Unimpassioned　Third
Party；　which　becomes　more　and　more　necessary　to　a　generally
satisfactory　ending　of　the　war。


4

The　idea　that　the　settlement　of　this　war　must　be　what　one　might
call　an　unimpassioned　settlement　or；　if　you　will；　a　scientific
settlement　or　a　judicial　and　not　a　treaty　settlement；　a
settlement；　that　is；　based　upon　some　conception　of　what　is　right
and　necessary　rather　than　upon　the　relative　success　or　failure　of
either　set　of　belligerents　to　make　its　Will　the　standard　of
decision；　is　one　that；　in　a　great　variety　of　forms　and　partial
developments；　I　find　gaining　ground　in　the　most　different
circles。　　The　war　was　an　adventure；　it　was　the　German　adventure
under　the　Hohenzollern　tradition；　to　dominate　the　world。　　It　was
to　be　the　last　of　the　Conquests。　　It　has　failed。　　Without　calling
upon　the　reserve　strength　of　America　the　civilised　world　has
defeated　it；　and　the　war　continues　now　partly　upon　the　issue
whether　it　shall　be　made　for　ever　impossible；　and　partly　because
Germany　has　no　organ　but　its　Hohenzollern　organisation　through
which　it　can　admit　its　failure　and　develop　its　latent　readiness
for　a　new　understanding　on　lines　of　mutual　toleration。　　For　that
purpose　nothing　more　reluctant　could　be　devised　than　Hohenzollern
imperialism。　　But　the　attention　of　every　new　combatantit　is　not
only　Germany　nowhas　been　concentrated　upon　military
necessities；　every　nation　is　a　clenched　nation；　with　its　powers
of　action　centred　in　its　own　administration；　bound　by　many
strategic　threats　and　declarations；　and　dominated　by　the　idea　of
getting　and　securing　advantages。　　It　is　inevitable　that　a
settlement　made　in　a　conference　of　belligerents　alone　will　be
shortsighted；　harsh；　limited　by　merely　incidental　necessities；
and　obsessed　by　the　idea　of　hostilities　and　rivalries　continuing
perennially；　it　will　be　a　trading　of　advantages　for　subsequent
attacks。　　It　will　be　a　settlement　altogether　different　in　effect
as　well　as　in　spirit　from　a　world　settlement　made　primarily　to
establish　a　new　phase　in　the　history　of　mankind。

Let　me　take　three　instances　of　the　impossibility　of　complete
victory　/on　either　side/　giving　a　solution　satisfactory　to
the　conscience　and　intelligence　of　reasonable　men。

The　firston　which　I　will　not　expatiate；　for　everyone　knows　of
its　peculiar　difficultyis　Poland。

The　second　is　a　little　one；　but　one　that　has　taken　hold　of　my
imagination。　　In　the　settlement　of　boundaries　preceding　this　war
the　boundary　between　Serbia　and　north…eastern　Albania　was　drawn
with　an　extraordinary　disregard　of　the　elementary　needs　of　the
Albanians　of　that　region。　　It　ran　along　the　foot　of　the　mountains
which　form　their　summer　pastures　and　their　refuge　from　attack；
and　it　cut　their　mountains　off　from　their　winter　pastures　and
market　towns。　　Their　whole　economic　life　was　cut　to　pieces　and
existence　rendered　intolerable　for　them。　　Now　an　intelligent
Third　Party　settling　Europe　would　certainly　restore　these　market
towns；　Ipek；　Jakova；　and　Prisrend；　to　Albania。　　But　the　Albanians
have　no　standing　in　this　war；　theirs　is　the　happy　lot　that　might
have　fallen　to　Belgium　had　she　not　resisted；　the　war　goes　to　and
fro　through　Albania；　and　when　the　settlement　comes；　it　is　highly
improbable　that　the　slightest　notice　will　be　taken　of　Albania's
plight　in　the　region。　　In　which　case　these　particular　Albanians
will　either　be　driven　into　exile　to　America　or　they　will　be
goaded　to　revolt；　which　will　be　followed　no　doubt　by　the　punitive
procedure　usual　in　the　Balkan　peninsula。

For　my　third　instance　I　would　step　from　a　matter　as　small　as
three　market　towns　and　the　grazing　of　a　few　thousand　head　of
sheep　to　a　matter　as　big　as　the　world。　　What　is　going　to　happen
to　the　shipping　of　the　world　after　this　war？　　The　Germans；　with
that　combination　of　cunning　and　stupidity　which　baffles　the　rest
of　mankind；　have　set　themselves　to　destroy　the　mercantile　marine
not　merely　of　Britain　and　France　but　of　Norway　and　Sweden；
Holland；　and　all　the　neutral　countries。　　The　German　papers　openly
boast　that　they　are　building　up　a　big　mercantile　marine　that　will
start　out　to　take　up　the　world's　overseas　trade　directly　peace　is
declared。　　Every　such　boast　receives　careful　attention　in　the
British　press。　　We　have　heard　a　very　great　deal　about　the　German
will…to…power　in　this　war；　but　there　is　something　very　much　older
and　tougher　and　less　blatant　and　conspicuous；　the　British　will。
In　the　British　papers　there　has　appeared　and　gained　a　permanent
footing　this　phrase；　〃ton　for　ton。〃　　This　means　that　Britain　will
go　on　fighting　until　she　has　exacted　and　taken　over　from　Germany
the　exact　equivalent　of　all　the　British　shipping　Germany　has
submarined。　　People　do　not　realise　that　a　time　may　come　when
Germany　will　be　glad　and　eager　to　give　Russia；　France　and　Italy
all　that　they　require　of　her；　when　Great　Britain　may　be　quite
content　to　let　her　allies　make　an　advantageous　peace　and　herself
still　go　on　fighting　Germany。　　She　does　not　intend　to　let　that
furtively　created　German　mercantile　marine　ship　or　coal　or　exist
upon　the　high　seasso　long　as　it　can　be　used　as　an　economic
weapon　against　her。　　Neither　Britain　nor　France　nor　Italy　can
tolerate　anything　of　the　sort。

It　has　been　the　peculiar　boast　of　Great　Britain　that　her　shipping
has　been　unpatriotic。　　She　has　been　the　impartial　carrier　of　the
whole　world。　　Her　shippers　may　have　served　their　own　profit；　they
have　never　served　hers。　　The　fluctuations　of　freight　charges　may
have　been　a　universal　nuisance；　but　they　have　certainly　not　been
an　aggressive　national　conspiracy。　　It　is　Britain's　case　against
any　German　ascendancy　at　sea；　an　entirely　convincing　case；　that
such　an　ascendancy　would　be　used　ruthlessly　for　the　advancement
of　German　world　power。　　The　long…standing　freedom　of　the　seas
vanishes　at　the　German　touch。　　So　beyond　the　present　war　there
opens　the　agreeable　prospect　of　a　mercantile　struggle；　a　bitter
freight　war　and　a　war　of　Navigation　Acts　for　the　ultimate　control
in　the　interests　of　Germany　or　of　the　Anti…German　allies；　of　the
world's　trade。

Now　how　in　any　of　these　three　cases　can　the　bargaining　and
trickery　of　diplomatists　and　the　advantage…hunting　of　the
belligerents　produce　any　stable　and　generally　beneficial
solution？　　What　all　the　neutrals　want；　what　every　rational　and
far…sighted　man　in　the　belligerent　countries　wants；　what　the
common　sense　of　the　whole　world　demands；　is　neither　the
〃ascendancy〃　of　Germany　nor　the　〃ascendancy〃　of　Great　Britain　nor
the　〃ascendancy〃　of　any　state　or　people　or　interest　in　the
shipping　of　the　world。　　The　plain　right　thing　is　a　world　shipping
control；　as　impartial　as　the　Postal　Union。　　What　right　and　reason
and　the　welfare　of　coming　generations　demand　in　Poland　is　a
unified　and　autonomous　Poland；　with　Cracow；　Danzig；　and　Posen
brought　into　the　same　Polish…speaking　ring…fence　with　Warsaw。
What　everyone　who　has　looked　into　the　Albanian　question　desires
is　that　the　Albanians　shall　pasture　their　flocks　and　market　their
sheepskins　in　peace；　free　of　Serbian　control。　　In　every　country
at　present　at　war；　the　desire　of　the　majority　of　people　is　for　a
non…contentious　solution　that　will　neither　crystallise　a　triumph
nor　propitiate　an　enemy；　but　which　will　embody　the　economic　and
ethnological　and　geographical　common　sense　of　the　matter。　　But
while　the　formulae　of　national　belligerence　are　easy；
familiar；　blatant；　and　instantly　present；　the　gentler；　greater
formulae　of　that　wider　and　newer　world　pacifism　has　still　to
be　generally　understood。　　It　is　so　much　easier　to　hate　and
suspect　than　negotiate　generously　and　patiently；　it　is　so　much
harder　to　think　than　to　let　go　in　a　shrill　storm　of　hostility。
The　rational　pacifist　is　hampered　not　only　by　belligerency；　but
by　a　sort　of　maligna