30+mba-第23章
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￡2m DD facility
Sales ￡millions
Finance 75
Payback period
The most popular method for evaluating investment decisions is the payback
method。 To arrive at the payback period you have to work out how
many years it takes to recover your cash investment。 Table 2。2 shows two
investment projects that require respectively ￡20；000 and ￡40；000 cash now
in order to get a series of cash returns spread over the next five years。
Table 2。2 The payback method
￡ ￡
Investment A Investment B
Initial cash cost NOW （Year 0） 20；000 40；000
Net cash flows
Year 1 1；000 10；000
Year 2 4；000 10；000
Year 3 8；000 16；000
Year 4 7；000 4；000
Year 5 5；000 28；000
Total cash in over period 25；000 68；000
Cash surplus 5；000 28；000
Although both propositions call for different amounts of cash to be invested；
we can see that both recover all their cash outlays by year 4。 So we
can say these investments have a four…year payback。 But as a ma。。er of fact
Investment B produces a much bigger surplus than the other project and it
returns half our initial cash outlay in two years。 Investment A has returned
only a quarter of our cash over that time period。
Payback may be simple； but it is not much use when it es to dealing
with the timing or with paring different investment amounts。
Discounted cash flow
We know intuitively that ge。。ing cash in sooner is be。。er than ge。。ing it in
later。 In other words； a pound received now is worth more than a pound
that will arrive in one； two or more years in the future because of what we
could do with that money ourselves； or because of what we ourselves have
to pay out to have use of that money （see Cost of capital above）。 To make
sound investment decisions we need to ascribe a value to a future stream
76 The Thirty…Day MBA
of earnings to arrive at what is known as the present value。 If we know
we could earn 20 per cent on any money we have； then the maximum we
would be prepared to pay for a pound ing in one year hence would
be around 80p。 If we were to pay one pound now to get a pound back in a
year’s time we would in effect be losing money。
The technique used to handle this is known as discounting。 The process
is termed discounted cash flow （DCF） and the residual discounted cash is
called the net present value。
Table 2。3 Using discounted cash flow （DCF）
￡ Discount factor Discounted
Cash flow at 15％ cash flow
A B A × B
Initial cash cost NOW （Year 0） 20；000 1。00 20；000
Net cash flows
Year 1 1；000 0。8695 870
Year 2 4；000 0。7561 3；024
Year 3 8；000 0。6575 5；260
Year 4 7；000 0。5717 4；002
Year 5 5；000 0。4972 2；486
Total 25；000 15；642
Cash surplus 5；000 Net present
value
（4；358）
The first column in Table 2。3 shows the simple cash…flow implications of
an investment proposition； a surplus of ￡5；000 es a。。er five years from
pu。。ing ￡20；000 into a project。 But if we accept the proposition that future
cash is worth less than current cash； the only question we need to answer is
how much less。 If we take our weighted average cost of capital as a sensible
starting point； we would select 13。4 per cent as an appropriate rate at which
to discount future cash flows。 To keep the numbers simple and to add a
small margin of safety； let’s assume that 15 per cent is the rate we have
selected （this doesn’t ma。。er too much； as you will see in the section on
internal rate of return）。
The formula for calculating what a pound received at some future date
is：
Present Value （PV） = ￡P X 1
（1＋r）n
Finance 77
where ￡P is the initial cash cost； r is the interest rate expressed in decimals
and n is the year in which the cash will arrive。 So if we decide on a discount
rate of 15 per cent； the present value of a pound received in one year’s time
is：
Present Value = ￡1 X 1
（1 ＋ 0。15） 1 = 0。87 （rounded to two decimal places）。
So we can see that our ￡1；000 arriving at the end of year 1 has a present
value of ￡870； the ￡4；000 in year 2 has a present value of ￡3；024 and by
year 5 present value reduces cash flows to barely half their original figure。
In fact； far from having a real payback in year 4 and generating a cash
surplus of ￡5；000； this project will make us ￡4；358 worse off than we had
hoped to be if we required to make a return of 15 per cent。 The project； in
other words； fails to meet our criteria using DCF but might well have been
pursued using payback。
Internal rate of return （IRR）
DCF is a useful starting point but does not give us any definitive information。
For example； all we know about the above project is that it doesn’t
make a return of 15 per cent。 In order to know the actual rate of return we
need to choose a discount rate that produces a net present value of the entire
cash flow of zero； known as the internal rate of return。 The maths is time
consuming but Solutions Matrix website （solutionmatrix） has a
tool for working out payback； discounted cash flow； internal rate of return；
and a whole lot more calculations relating to capital budgeting。 You have
to register on the site first before downloading their free capital budgeting
spreadsheet suite and tutorial。 From the home page you should click on
‘Download Center’ and ‘Download Financial Metrics Lite for Microso。。
Excel’。
Using this spreadsheet you will see that the IRR for the project in question
is slightly under 7 per cent； not much be。。er than bank interest and certainly
insufficient to warrant taking any risks for。
BUDGETS AND VARIANCES
Budgeting is the principal interface between the operating business units
and the finance department。 As a staff function （see Chapter 4 for more
on line and staff functions）； the finance department will assist managers
in preparing a detailed budget for the year ahead for every area of the
organization and is in effect the first year of the business plan。 MBAs are
invariably expected to play a role in facilitating the process within their
78 The Thirty…Day MBA
departments。 Budgets are usually reviewed at least halfway through the
year and o。。en quarterly。 At that review a further quarter or half year can be
added to the budget to maintain a one…year budget horizon。 This is known
as a ‘rolling quarterly （half yearly） budget’。
Budget guidelines
Budgets should adhere to the following general principles：
。 The budget must be based on realistic but challenging goals。 Those goals
are arrived at by both a top…down ‘aspiration’ of senior management
and a bo。。om…up forecast of what the department concerned sees as
possible。
。 The budget should be prepared by those responsible for delivering the
results – the salespeople should prepare the sales budget and the production
people the production budget。 Senior managers must maintain
the munication process so that everyone knows what other parties
are planning for。
。 Agreement to the budget should be explicit。 During the budgeting
process； several versions of a particular budget should be discussed。
For example； the boss may want a sales figure of ￡2 million； but the
sales team’s initial forecast is for ￡1。75 million。
。 A。。er some debate； ￡1。9 million may be the figure agreed upon。 Once
a figure is agreed； a virtual contract exists that declares a mitment
from employees to achieve the target and mitments from the
employer to be satisfied with the target and to supply resources in
order to achieve it。 It makes sense for this contract to be in writing。
。 The budget needs to be finalized at least a month before the start of the
year and not weeks or months into the year。
。 The budget should undergo fundamental reviews periodically throughout
the year to make sure all the basic assumptions that underpin it still
hold good。
。 Accurate information to review performance against budgets should
be available 7 to 10 working days before the month’s end。
Variance analysis
Explaining variances is also an MBA…type task so performance needs to be
carefully monitored and pared against the budget as the year proceeds；
and corrective action must be taken where necessary。 This has to be done on
a monthly basis （or using
