wt.theyearofthequietsun-第7章

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for　any　season　of　the　year；　together　with　weapons　and　provisions。　Our　program　requires　that　the　laboratory　and　the　vehicle　be　continuously　manned　for　an　indefinite　period；　a　hundred　or　more　years；　if　necessary。　All　times　of　arrival　in　the　future　will　be　known　to　those　future　engineers；　of　course。　It　has　been　arranged。〃
　　〃Unless　they've　walked　out　on　strike。〃
　　〃Sir？〃
　　〃Your　long…range　planning　is　subject　to　the　same　uncertainties　as　my　projections…one　fluke；　one　chance　event　may　knock　everything　askew。　The　Indic　report　failed　to　allow　for　a　weak　Administration　replacing　a　strong　one；　and　if　that　report　was　placed　before　me　today　I　wouldn't　sign　it；　the　variable　casts　doubt　on　the　validity　of　the　whole。　We　can　only　hope　the　engineers　will　still　be　on　the　job　tomorrow；　and　will　still　be　using　standard　time。〃
　　〃Mr。　Chaney；　the　Bureau's　long…range　planning　is　more　thorough　than　that；　It　is　solidly　grounded　and　has　been　designed　for　permanency。　I　would　remind　you　that　the　primary　target　area　is　only　twenty…two　years　distant。〃
　　〃I　have　this　feeling　that　I'll　e　out…e　to　the　surface…a　thousand　years　older。〃
　　〃I　am　sure　you　will　make　do；　sir。　Our　team　is　notable　for　individual　self…reliance。〃
　　〃Which　properly　puts　me　in　my　place；　Miss　van　Hise。〃
　　Moresby　interrupted。　〃What　about　those　stores？〃
　　〃Yes；　sir。　The　shelter　is　stocked　with　necessities：　motion　picture　cameras；　tape　recorders；　radios；　weapons　and　weapons　detectors；　hand　radar；　and　so　forth。　There　is　money　and　gems　and　medical　supplies。　Materials　such　as　film；　tape；　ammunition　and　clothing　will　be　restocked　at　intervals　to　insure　fresh　or　modern　supplies。〃
　　Major　Moresby　said：　〃I'll　be　damned！〃　and　fell　silent　for　a　moment　of　admiration。　〃It　makes　good　sense；　after　all。　We'll　draw　what　we　need　from　the　stores　to　cover　the　target；　and　replace　the　remainder　before　ing　back。〃
　　〃Yes；　sir。　No　part　of　the　supplies　may　be　carried　back　with　you；　except　tapes　and　film　exposed　in　the　field。　The　engineers　will　instruct　you　on　how　to　pensate　for　that　small　extra　weight。　Do　not　bring　back　the　recorders　and　cameras；　and　you　are　expressly　forbidden　to　bring　back　any　personal　souvenir　such　as　coins　or　currency。　But　you　may　photograph　the　money　if　you　wish。〃
　　〃Those　engineers　have　an　answer　for　everything；〃　Chaney　observed。　〃They　must　work　around　the　clock。〃
　　〃Our　project　has　been　working　around　the　clock　for　the　past　three　years；　sir。〃
　　〃Who　pays　the　electric　bill？〃
　　〃A　nuclear　power　station　is　located　on　the　post。〃
　　He　was　quickly　interested。　〃Their　own　reactor？　How　much　power　does　it　generate？〃
　　〃I　don't　know；　sir。〃
　　〃I　know；〃　Saltus　said。　〃monwealth…Edison　has　a　new　one　up　near　Chicago　putting　out　eight　hundred　thousand　kilowatts。　Big　thing…I've　seen　it；　and　I've　seen　ours。　They　look　like　steel　light　bulbs　turned　upside　down。〃
　　Chaney　was　still　curious。　〃Does　the　TDV　need　that　much　power？〃
　　〃I　couldn't　say；　sir。〃　She　changed　the　subject　by　calling　attention　to　the　sheaf　of　mimeographed　papers　taken　from　the　envelopes。　〃We　have　time　this　afternoon　to　begin　on　these　reports。〃
　　
　　
　　The　first　sheet　bore　the　stylized　imprint　of　the　Indiana　Corporation；　and　Chaney　quickly　recognized　his　own　work。　He　gave　the　woman　an　amused　glance　but　she　avoided　his　eyes；　another　glance　down　the　table　revealed　his　panions　staring　at　the　massive　report　with　anticipated　boredom。
　　The　next　page　plunged　immediately　into　the　subject　matter　by　offering　long　columns　of　statistics　underscored　by　footnotes：　the　first　few　columns　were　solidly　rooted　in　the　census　figures　of　1970；　while　the　following　columns　on　the　following　pages　were　his　projections　going　forward　to　2050。　Chaney　recalled　the　fun　and　the　sweat　that　had　gone　into　the　work…and　the　very　shaky　limb　on　which　he　perched　as　he　worked　toward　the　farthest　date。
　　Births：　legitimate　and　otherwise；　predicted　annually　by　race　and　by　geographical　area　（down　sharply　along　the　Atlantic　seaboard　below　Boston；　and　the　southern　states　except　Florida；　figures　did　not　include　unpredictable　number　of　laboratory…hospital　births　by　artificial　means；　figures　did　not　include　unpredictable　number　of　abnormal　births　in　Nevada　and　Utah　due　to　accumulation　of　radioactive　fallout）。
　　Deaths：　with　separate　figures　for　murders　and　known　suicides；　projected　annually　by　age　groups　（suicides　increasing　at　predictable　rate　below　age　thirty；　females　outliving　males　by　twelve　point　three　years　by　year　2000；　anticipated　life…expectancy　increased　one　point　nine　years　by　year　2050；　figures　did　not　include　infant　mortalities　in　Nevada…Utah　fallout　area；　figures　did　not　include　infant　mortalities　in　laboratory…hospital　artificial　births）。
　　Marriages　and　trial　marriages：　with　subsequent　divorces　and　annulments　forecast　on　an　annual　basis　after　1980；　first　full　year　of　trial　marriage　decree　（trial　marriages　not　appreciably　contributing　to　the　birth　rate　except　in　Alabama　and　Mississippi；　but　tending　to　increase　the　murder　and　suicide　rate；　and　contributing　to　the　slow　decline　of　long…term　marriages）。　Footnote：　renewable　term　trial　marriage　remended；　i。e。；　a　second　year　of　trial　be　granted　upon　application　by　both　parties。
　　Incidence　of　crime：　detailed　projections　in　twenty　categories；　separated　by　states　having　and　not　having　the　death　penalty　（murder　and　robbery　up　sharply；　but　rape　down　by　a　significant　percentage　due　to　trial　marriages　and　lowered　legal　age　of　all　marriages）。
　　Probable　voter　registrations　and　profiles：　gradual　emergence　of　enduring　three…party　system　after　1980　（with　registrations　divided　unevenly　among　three　major　and　one　minor　party；　black　voters　concentrated　in　one　major　and　the　minor　party；　pronounced　swing　to　the　conservative　right　in　two　white　major　parties　during　the　next　decade；　with　conservative　Administrations　probable　until　year　2000；　plus　or　minus　four　years）。
　　Total　population　by　the　turn　of　the　century：　based　upon　the　foregoing；　three　hundred　and　forty　million　people　in　the　forty…eight　contiguous　states　and　an　additional　ten　million　in　the　three　remaining　states　（the　northern　tier　of　plains　states　projected　as　consistent　annual　losers　but　with　Alaska　up　significantly；　Manhattan　Island　reaching　point　of　saturation　within　two　years；　California　by　1990；　Florida　by　2010）。　Footnote：　remended　that　immigration　to　Manhattan　Island；　California；　and　Florida　be　forbidden　by　law；　and　that　monetary　inducements　be　offered　to　relocate　in　middle　states　having　low　densities　of　population。
　　Brian　Chaney　felt　a　certain　unease　about　some　of　his　conclusions。
　　Trial　marriages　could　be　expected　to　increase　at　a　phenomenal　rate　once　their　popularity　caught　on；　but　with　the　trial　term　limited　to　one　year　he　fully　expected　both　the　murder　and　suicide　rates　to　climb；　the　murders　were　apt　to　be　crimes　of　passion　mitted　by　the　female　because　of　the　probability　of　losing　her　short…term　husband　to　another　short…term　wife；　while　the　suicides　were　predicted　for　the　same　reason。　The　remended　two…year　renewable　term　would　tend　to　dampen　the　possibility　of　either　violent　act。
　　A　certain　amount　of　joy…riding　was　to　be　expected　in　trial　marriages；　but　he　was　gambling　they　would　contribute　almost　nothing　to　the　birth　rate。　Nor　did　he　believe　that　another　pill…the　new　pill…would　affect　his　projections。　Chaney　held　a　low　opinion　of　the　recently　introduced　KH3…B　pill；　and　refused　to　believe　it　had　any　restorative　powers；　he　clung　to　the　belief　that　man　was　allotted　a　normal　three　score　and　fifteen；　and　the　projected　increase　of　one　point　nine　years　by　2050　would　be　attributed　to　the　eradication　of　diseases…not　to　pills　and　nostrums　purportedly　having　the　power　to　restore　mental　and　physical　vigor　to　the　aged。　The　patients　might　live　six　months　longer　than　their　normal　spans　because　they　were　buoyed　by　euphoria；　but　six　months　would　not　affect　a　mass　of　statistics。
　　Great　population　shifts　had　been　earlier　predicted　and　borne　out；　with　the　emphasis　of　change　along　the　natural　waterways。　The　greater　densities　of　population…by　2050…would　lie　along　five　clearly　defined　areas：　the　Atlantic　seaboard；　the　Pacific　seaboard；　the　Gulf　Coast　from　Tampa　to　Brownsville；　the　southern　shores　of　all　t