tc.redstormrising-第29章

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〃No；　he　is　old　and　sick。　He　says　that　the　attack　on　the　West　is　madness。　The　ramblings　of　an　old　man；　perhaps；　but　his　war　record　is　distinguished；　and　because　of　that　I　want　your　evaluation　of　our　chances。　I　will　not　inform　on　you；　General。　Too　many　people　are　fearful　of　telling　us…we　of　the　Politburo…the　truth。　But　this　is　a　time　for　that　truth。　I　need　your　professional　opinion。　If　I　can　trust　you　to　give　it　to　me；　you　can　trust　me　not　to　harm　you　for　it。〃　The　entreaty　ended　as　a　harsh　mand。
Alekseyev　looked　his　guest　hard　in　the　eyes。　The　charm　was　gone　now。　The　blue　was　the　color　of　ice。　There　was　danger　here；　danger　even　for　a　general　officer；　but　what　the　man　had　said　was　true。
〃rade；　we　plan　on　a　rapid　campaign。　The　projections　are　that　we　can　reach　the　Rhein　in　two　weeks。　Those　are　actually　more　conservative　than　our　plans　of　only　five　years　ago。　NATO　has　improved　its　readiness；　particularly　its　antitank　capabilities。　I　would　say　three　weeks　is　more　realistic；　depending　on　the　degree　of　tactical　surprise　and　the　many　imponderables　present　in　war。〃
〃So　the　key　is　surprise？〃
〃The　key　is　always　surprise；〃　Alekseyev　answered　at　once。　He　quoted　Soviet　doctrine　exactly。　〃Surprise　is　the　greatest　factor　in　war。　There　are　two　kinds；　tactical　and　strategic。　Tactical　surprise　is　an　operational　art。　A　killed　unit　mander　can　generally　achieve　it。　Strategic　surprise　is　attained　on　the　political　level。　That　is　your　mission；　not　mine；　and　it　is　far　more　important　than　anything　we　in　the　Army　can　do。　With　true　strategic　surprise；　if　our　maskirovka　works；　yes；　we　will　almost　certainly　win　on　the　battlefield。〃
〃And　if　not？〃
Then　we　have　murdered　eight　children　for　nothing；　Alekseyev　thought。　And　what　part　did　this　charming　fellow　have　in　that？　〃Then　we　might　fail。　Can　you　answer　me　a　question？　Can　we　split　NATO　politically？〃
Sergetov　shrugged；　annoyed　at　being　caught　in　one　of　his　own　traps。　〃As　you　said；　Pavel　Leonidovich；　there　are　many　imponderables。　If　it　fails；　then　what？〃
〃Then　the　war　will　bee　a　test　of　will　and　a　test　of　reserves。　We　should　win。　It　is　far　easier　for　us　to　reinforce　our　troops。　We　have　more　trained　troops；　more　tanks；　more　aircraft　close　to　the　zone　of　action　than　do　the　NATO　powers。〃
〃And　America？〃
〃America　is　on　the　far　side　of　the　Atlantic　Ocean。　We　have　a　plan　for　closing　the　Atlantic。　They　can　fly　troops　to　Europe…but　only　troops；　not　their　weapons；　not　their　fuel。　Those　require　ships；　and　ships　are　easier　to　sink　than　it　is　to　destroy　a　fighting　division。　If　full　surprise　is　not　achieved；　that　operational　area　will　bee　quite　important。〃
〃And　what　of　NATO　surprises？〃
The　General　leaned　back。　〃By　definition　you　cannot　predict　surprises；　rade。　That　is　why　we　have　the　intelligence　organs；　to　reduce　or　even　eliminate　them。　That　is　why　our　plans　allow　for　a　number　of　contingencies。　For　example；　what　if　surprise　is　totally　lost　and　NATO　attacks　first？〃　He　shrugged。　〃They　would　not　go　far；　but　they　would　upset　things。　What　still　concerns　me　are　nuclear　responses。　Again；　more　of　a　political　question。〃
〃Yes。〃　Sergetov's　worry　was　for　his　elder　son。　When　the　reserves　were　mobilized；　Ivan　would　climb　back　into　his　tank；　and　he　didn't　need　to　be　a　Politburo　member　to　know　where　that　tank　would　be　sent。　Alekseyev　had　only　daughters。　Lucky　man；　Sergetov　thought。　〃So；　this　unit　goes　to　Germany？〃
〃The　end　of　the　week。〃
〃And　you？〃
〃During　the　initial　phase　we　are　tasked　to　be　the　strategic　reserve　for　CINC…West's　operations；　plus　to　defend　the　Motherland　against　possible　incursions　from　the　southern　flank。　That　does　not　concern　us　greatly。　To　threaten　us；　Greece　and　Turkey　must　cooperate。　They　will　not；　unless　our　intelligence　information　is　pletely　false。　My　mander　and　I　will　later　execute　Phase　2　of　the　plan；　and　seize　the　Persian　Gulf　Again；　this　will　not　be　a　problem。　The　Arabs　are　armed　to　the　teeth；　but　there　are　not　so　many　of　them。　What　is　your　son　doing　now？〃
〃The　elder？　He's　ending　his　first　year　of　graduate　school　in　languages。　Top　of　his　class…Middle　Eastern　languages。〃　Sergetov　was　surprised　at　himself　for　not　thinking　of　this。
〃I　could　use　a　few　more　of　those。　Most　of　our　Arabic　language　people　are　Muslims　themselves；　and　for　this　task　I　would　prefer　people　more　reliable。〃
〃And　you　do　not　trust　the　followers　of　Allah？〃
〃In　war　I　trust　no　one。　If　your　son　is　good　at　these　languages；　I　will　find　a　use　for　him；　be　sure　of　that。〃　The　formal　agreement　was　made　with　nods；　and　each　wondered　if　the　other　had　planned　it　that　way。

NORFOLK；　VIRGINIA
〃Progress　hasn't　ended　as　scheduled；〃　Toland　said。　〃Satellite　and　other　reconnaissance　shows　that　the　Soviet　forces　in　Germany　and　western　Poland　are　still　together　in　operational　formations　living　in　the　field。　There　are　indications　that　rail　transport　is　being　marshaled　at　various　points　in　the　Soviet　Union…that　is；　at　points　consistent　with　plans　to　move　large　numbers　of　troops　west。

〃Soviet　Northern　Fleet　this　morning　sortied　six　submarines。　The　move　is　ostensibly　a　scheduled　rotation　to　replace　their　operational　squadron　in　the　Med；　so　for　the　next　two　weeks　they'll　have　more　subs　in　the　North　Atlantic　than　is　normally　the　case。〃
〃Tell　me　about　the　group　rotating　out　of　the　Med；〃　CINCLANT　ordered。
〃A　Victor；　an　Echo；　three　Foxtrots；　and　a　Juliet。　They　all　spent　the　last　week　tied　alongside　their　tender　at　Tripoli…the　tender　stayed　put；　in　Libyan　territorial　waters。　They　will　clear　the　Straits　of　Gibraltar　about　1300　Zulu　tomorrow。〃
〃They're　not　waiting　for　the　new　group　to　relieve　them　on　station　first？〃
〃No；　Admiral。　Usually　they　do　wait　for　the　replacement　group　to　enter　the　Med；　but　about　a　third　of　the　time　they　do　it　this　way。　That　gives　us　twelve　Soviet　subs　in　transit　north　and　south；　plus　a　November　and　three　more　Foxtrots　that　have　been　exercising　with　the　Cuban　Navy。　At　the　moment　they　are　all　tied　alongside　also…we　checked　up　on　them　this　morning；　that　data　is　two　hours　old。〃
〃Okay；　what　about　Europe？〃
〃No　further　information　on　Mr。　Falken。　The　NATO　intelligence　services　have　run　up　against　a　blank　wall；　and　there's　been　nothing　new　from　Moscow；　not　even　a　date　for　the　public　trial。　The　Germans　say　that　they　have　no　knowledge　whatever　of　the　guy。　It's　just　as　though　he　appeared　fully　grown　at　age　thirty…one　when　he　started　his　business。　His　apartment　was　taken　apart　one　stick　at　a　time。　No　incriminating　evidence　was　found…〃
〃Okay；　mander；　give　us　your　professional　gut　feeling。〃
〃Admiral；　Falken　is　a　Soviet　sleeper　agent　who　was　inserted　into　the　Federal　Republic　thirteen　years　ago　and　used　for　very　few　missions；　or　more　probably　none　at　all；　until　this。〃
〃So　you　think　this　whole　thing's　a　Soviet　intelligence　operation。　No　big　surprise　there。　What's　its　objective？〃　CINCLANT　asked　sharply。
〃Sir；　at　the　very　least　they　are　trying　to　put　enormous　political　pressure　on　West　Germany；　perhaps　to　force　them　out　of　NATO。　At　worst…〃
〃I　think　we　already　figured　the　worst…case　scenario　out。　Nice　job；　Toland。　And　I　owe　you　an　apology　for　yesterday。　Not　your　fault　that　you　didn't　have　all　the　information　I　wanted。〃　Toland　blinked。　It　was　not　often　that　a　four…star　admiral　apologized　to　a　reserve　lieutenant…mander　in　front　of　other　flag　officers。　〃What's　their　fleet　doing？〃
〃Admiral；　we　have　no　satellite　photos　of　the　Murmansk　area。　Too　much　cloud　cover；　but　we　expect　clear　weather　tomorrow　afternoon。　The　Norwegians　are　running　increased　air　patrols　in　the　Barents　Sea；　and　they　say　that；　aside　from　submarines；　the　Russians　have　relatively　few　ships　at　sea　at　the　moment。　Of　course；　they've　had　relatively　few　ships　at　sea　for　a　month。〃
〃And　that　can　change　in　three　hours；〃　an　admiral　noted。　〃Your　evaluation　of　their　fleet　readiness？〃
〃The　best　it's　been　since　I've　been　studying　them；〃　Toland　replied。　〃As　close　to　a　hundred　percent　as　I've　ever　seen　it。　As　you　just　said；　sir；　they　can　put　to　sea　at　any　time　with　almost　their　whole　inventory。〃
〃If　they　sortie；　we'll　know　it　quick。　I　have　three　subs　up　there　keeping　an　eye　on　things；〃　Admiral　Pipes　said。
〃I　talked　with　the　Secretary　of　Defense　right　before　I　came　here。　He's　going　to　meet　with　the　President　today　and　request　a　DEFCON…3　alert；　global。　The　Germans　are　requesting　that　we　keep　Spiral