mc.prey-第1章

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l　be　artificial　in　the　sense　that　they　will　originally　be　designed　by　humans。　However；　they　will　reproduce；　and　will　〃evolve〃　into　something　other　than　their　original　form；　they　will　be　〃alive〃　under　any　reasonable　definition　of　the　word。　These　organisms　will　evolve　in　a　fundamentally　different　manner。　。。。　The　pace　。。。　will　be　extremely　rapid。　。。。　The　impact　on　humanity　and　the　biosphere　could　be　enormous；　larger　than　the　industrial　revolution；　nuclear　weapons；　or　environmental　pollution。　We　must　take　steps　now　to　shape　the　emergence　of　artificial　organisms。　。。。
　Doyne　Farmer　and　Alletta　Belin；　1992
　　
　There　are　many　people；　including　myself；　who　are　quite　queasy　about　the　consequences　of　this　technology　for　the　future。
　K。　Eric　Drexler；　1992
　
　Introduction
　Artificial　Evolution　in　the　Twenty…first　Century
　
　The　notion　that　the　world　around　us　is　continuously　evolving　is　a　platitude；　we　rarely　grasp　its　full　implications。　We　do　not　ordinarily　think；　for　example；　of　an　epidemic　disease　changing　its　character　as　the　epidemic　spreads。　Nor　do　we　think　of　evolution　in　plants　and　animals　as　occurring　in　a　matter　of　days　or　weeks；　though　it　does。　And　we　do　not　ordinarily　imagine　the　green　world　around　us　as　a　scene　of　constant；　sophisticated　chemical　warfare；　with　plants　producing　pesticides　in　response　to　attack；　and　insects　developing　resistance。　But　that　is　what　happens；　too。
　If　we　were　to　grasp　the　true　nature　of　nature…if　we　could　prehend　the　real　meaning　of　evolution…then　we　would　envision　a　world　in　which　every　living　plant；　insect；　and　animal　species　is　changing　at　every　instant；　in　response　to　every　other　living　plant；　insect；　and　animal。　Whole　populations　of　organisms　are　rising　and　falling；　shifting　and　changing。　This　restless　and　perpetual　change；　as　inexorable　and　unstoppable　as　the　waves　and　tides；　implies　a　world　in　which　all　human　actions　necessarily　have　uncertain　effects。　The　total　system　we　call　the　biosphere　is　so　plicated　that　we　cannot　know　in　advance　the　consequences　of　anything　that　we　do。1　That　is　why　even　our　most　enlightened　past　efforts　have　had　undesirable　outes…either　because　we　did　not　understand　enough；　or　because　the　ever…changing　world　responded　to　our　actions　in　unexpected　ways。　From　this　standpoint；　the　history　of　environmental　protection　is　as　discouraging　as　the　history　of　environmental　pollution。　Anyone　who　is　willing　to　argue；　for　example；　that　the　industrial　policy　of　clear…cutting　forests　is　more　damaging　than　the　ecological　policy　of　fire　suppression　ignores　the　fact　that　both　policies　have　been　carried　out　with　utter　conviction；　and　both　have　altered　the　virgin　forest　irrevocably。　Both　provide　ample　evidence　of　the　obstinate　egotism　that　is　a　hallmark　of　human　interaction　with　the　environment。　The　fact　that　the　biosphere　responds　unpredictably　to　our　actions　is　not　an　argument　for　inaction。　It　is；　however；　a　powerful　argument　for　caution；　and　for　adopting　a　tentative　attitude　toward　all　we　believe；　and　all　we　do。　Unfortunately；　our　species　has　demonstrated　a　striking　lack　of　caution　in　the　past。　It　is　hard　to　imagine　that　we　will　behave　differently　in　the　future。　We　think　we　know　what　we　are　doing。　We　have　always　thought　so。　We　never　seem　to　acknowledge　that　we　have　been　wrong　in　the　past；　and　so　might　be　wrong　in　the　future。　Instead；　each　generation　writes　off　earlier　errors　as　the　result　of　bad　thinking　by　less　able　minds…and　then　confidently　embarks　on　fresh　errors　of　its　own。
　We　are　one　of　only　three　species　on　our　planet　that　can　claim　to　be　self…aware；2　yet　self…delusion　may　be　a　more　significant　characteristic　of　our　kind。　Sometime　in　the　twenty…first　century；　our　self…deluded　recklessness　will　collide　with　our　growing　technological　power。　One　area　where　this　will　occur　is　in　the　meeting　point　of　nanotechnology；　biotechnology；　and　puter　technology。　What　all　three　have　in　mon　is　the　ability　to　release　self…replicating　entities　into　the　environment。
　We　have　lived　for　some　years　with　the　first　of　these　self…replicating　entities；　puter　viruses。　And　we　are　beginning　to　have　some　practical　experience　with　the　problems　of　biotechnology。　The　recent　report　that　modified　maize　genes　now　appear　in　native　maize　in　Mexico…despite　laws　against　it；　and　efforts　to　prevent　it…is　just　the　start　of　what　we　may　expect　to　be　a　long　and　difficult　journey　to　control　our　technology。　At　the　same　time；　long…standing　beliefs　about　the　fundamental　safety　of　biotechnology…views　promoted　by　the　great　majority　of　biologists　since　the　1970s…now　appear　less　secure。　The　unintended　creation　of　a　devastatingly　lethal　virus　by　Australian　researchers　in　2001　has　caused　many　to　rethink　old　assumptions。3　Clearly　we　will　not　be　as　casual　about　this　technology　in　the　future　as　we　have　been　in　the　past。　Nanotechnology　is　the　newest　of　these　three　technologies；　and　in　some　ways　the　most　radical。　It　is　the　quest　to　build　man…made　machinery　of　extremely　small　size；　on　the　order　of　100　nanometers；　or　a　hundred　billionths　of　a　meter。　Such　machines　would　be　about　1；000　times　smaller　than　the　diameter　of　a　human　hair。　Pundits　predict　these　tiny　machines　will　provide　everything　from　miniaturized　puter　ponents　to　new　cancer　treatments　to　new　weapons　of　war。
　As　a　concept；　nanotechnology　dates　back　to　a　1959　speech　by　Richard　Feynman　called　〃There's　Plenty　of　Room　at　the　Bottom。〃4　Forty　years　later；　the　field　is　still　very　much　in　its　infancy；　despite　relentless　media　hype。　Yet　practical　advances　are　now　being　made；　and　funding　has　increased　dramatically。　Major　corporations　such　as　IBM；　Fujitsu；　and　Intel　are　pouring　money　into　research。　The　U。S。　government　has　spent　1　billion　on　nanotechnology　in　the　last　two　years。
　Meanwhile；　nanotechniques　are　already　being　used　to　make　sunscreens；　stain…resistant　fabrics；　and　posite　materials　in　cars。　Soon　they　will　be　used　to　make　puters　and　storage　devices　of　extremely　small　size。
　And　some　of　the　long…anticipated　〃miracle〃　products　have　started　to　appear　as　well。　In　2002　one　pany　was　manufacturing　self…cleaning　window　glass；　another　made　a　nanocrystal　wound　dressing　with　antibiotic　and　anti…inflammatory　properties。　At　the　moment　nanotechnology　is　primarily　a　materials　technology；　but　its　potential　goes　far　beyond　that。　For　decades　there　has　been　speculation　about　self…reproducing　machines。　In　1980　a　NASA　paper　discussed　several　methods　by　which　such　machines　could　be　made。　Ten　years　ago；　two　knowledgeable　scientists　took　the　matter　seriously：
　　
　Within　fifty　to　a　hundred　years；　a　new　class　of　organisms　is　likely　to　emerge。　These　organisms　will　be　artificial　in　the　sense　that　they　will　originally　be　designed　by　humans。　However；　they　will　reproduce；　and　will　〃evolve〃　into　something　other　than　their　original　form；　they　will　be　〃alive〃　under　any　reasonable　definition　of　the　word。　。。。　The　pace　of　evolutionary　change　will　be　extremely　rapid。　。。。　The　impact　on　humanity　and　the　biosphere　could　be　enormous；　larger　than　the　industrial　revolution；　nuclear　weapons；　or　environmental　pollution。　We　must　take　steps　now　to　shape　the　emergence　of　artificial　organisms。　。。。5　
　　
　And　the　chief　proponent　of　nanotechnology；　K。　Eric　Drexler；　expressed　related　concerns：
　　
　There　are　many　people；　including　myself；　who　are　quite　queasy　about　the　consequences　of　this　technology　for　the　future。　We　are　talking　about　changing　so　many　things　that　the　risk　of　society　handling　it　poorly　through　lack　of　preparation　is　very　large。6
　　
　Even　by　the　most　optimistic　（or　dire）　predictions；　such　organisms　are　probably　decades　into　our　future。　We　may　hope　that　by　the　time　they　emerge；　we　will　have　settled　upon　international　controls　for　self…reproducing　technologies。　We　can　expect　such　controls　to　be　stringently　enforced；　already　we　have　learned　to　treat　puter　virus…makers　with　a　severity　unthinkable　twenty　years　ago。　We've　learned　to　put　hackers　in　jail。　Errant　biotechnologists　will　soon　join　them。
　But　of　course；　it　is　always　possible　that　we　will　not　establish　controls。　Or　that　someone　will　manage　to　create　artificial；　self…reproducing　organisms　far　sooner　than　anyone　expected。　If　so；　it　is　difficult　to　anticipate　what　the　consequences　might　be。　That　is　the　subject　of　the　present　nov