michael crichton.congo-第59章

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s…and　will　assume　even　more　importance　in　the　future。　（Martin　said　bluntly　that　〃this　country　will　go　to　war　over　Zaire　before　we　go　to　war　over　any　Arab　oil　state。〃）
　During　World　War　II；　in　three　highly　secret　shipments；　the　Congo　supplied　the　United　States　with　uranium　used　to　build　the　atomic　bombs　exploded　over　Japan。　By　1960　the　U。S。　no　longer　needed　uranium；　but　copper　and　cobalt　were　strategically　important。　In　the　1970s　the　emphasis　shifted　to　Zaire's　reserves　of　tantalum；　wolframite；　germanium…　substances　vital　to　semi　conducting　electronics。　And　in　the　1980s；　〃so…called　Type　IIb　blue　diamonds　will　constitute　the　most　important　military　resource　in　the　world〃…and　the　presumption　was　that　Zaire　had　such　diamonds。　In　General　Martin's　view；　blue　diamonds　were　essential　because　〃we　are　entering　a　time　when　the　brute　destructive　power　of　a　weapon　will　be　less　important　than　its　speed　and　intelligence。〃
　For　thirty　years；　military　thinkers　had　been　awed　by　intercontinental　ballistic　missiles。　But　Martin　said　that　〃ICBMs　are　crude　weapons。　They　do　not　begin　to　approach　the　theoretical　limits　imposed　by　physical　laws。　According　to　Einsteinian　physics；　nothing　can　happen　faster　than　the　speed　of　light；　186；000　miles　a　second。　We　are　now　developing　high…energy　pulsed　lasers　and　particle　beam　weapons　systems　which　operate　at　the　speed　of　light。　In　the　face　of　such　weapons；　ballistic　missiles　traveling　a　mere　17；000　miles　an　hour　are　slow…moving　dinosaurs　from　a　previous　era；　as　inappropriate　as　cavalry　in　World　War　I；　and　as　easily　eliminated。〃
　Speed…of…light　weapons　were　best　suited　to　space；　and　would　first　appear　in　satellites。　Martin　noted　that　the　Russians　had　made　a　〃kill〃　of　the　American　spy　satellite　VV/　02　as　early　as　1973；　in　1975；　Hughes　Aircraft　developed　a　rapid　aiming　and　firing　system　which　locked　onto　multiple　targets；　firing　eight　high…energy　pulses　in　less　than　one　second。　By　1978；　the　Hughes　team　had　reduced　response　time　to　fifty　nanoseconds…fifty　billionths　of　a　second…and　increased　beam　accuracy　to　five　hundred　missile　knockdowns　in　less　than　one　minute。　Such　developments　presaged　the　end　of　the　ICBM　as　a　weapon。
　〃Without　the　gigantic　missiles；　miniature；　high…speed　puters　will　be　vastly　more　important　in　future　conflicts　than　nuclear　bombs；　and　their　speed　of　putation　will　be　the　single　most　important　factor　determining　the　oute　of　World　War　III。　puter　speed　now　stands　at　the　center　of　the　armament　race；　as　megaton　power　once　held　the　center　twenty　years　ago。
　〃We　will　shift　from　electronic　circuit　puters　to　light　circuit　puters　simply　because　of　speed…the　Fabry…Perot　Interferometer；　the　optical　equivalent　of　a　transistor；　can　respond　in　1　picosecond　（10　12　seconds）；　at　least　1；000　times　faster　than　the　fastest　Josephson　junctions。〃　The　new　generation　of　optical　puters；　Martin　said；　would　be　dependent　on　the　availability　of　Type　IIb　boron…coated　diamonds。
　
　Elliot　recognized　at　once　the　most　serious　consequence　of　the　speed…of…light　weapons…they　were　much　too　fast　for　human　prehension。　Men　were　accustomed　to　mechanized
　warfare；　but　a　future　war　would　be　a　war　of　machines　in　a
　startlingly　new　sense：　machines　would　actually　govern　the　moment…to…moment　course　of　a　conflict　which　lasted　only　minutes　from　start　to　finish。
　In　1956；　in　the　waning　years　of　the　strategic　bomber；　military　thinkers　imagined　an　all…out　nuclear　exchange　lasting　12　hours。　By　1963；　ICBMs　had　shrunk　the　time　course　to　3　hours。　By　1974；　military　theorists　were　predicting　a　war　that　lasted　just　30　minutes；　yet　this　〃half…hour　war〃　was　vastly　more　plex　than　any　earlier　war　in　human　history。
　In　the　1950s；　if　the　Americans　and　the　Russians　launched　all　the　bombers　and　rockets　at　the　same　moment；　there　would　still　be　no　more　than　10；000　weapons　in　the　air；　attacking　and　counterattacking。　Total　weapons　interaction　events　would　peak　at　15；000　in　the　second　hour。　This　represented　the　impressive　figure　of　4　weapons　interactions　every　second　around　the　world。
　But　given　diversified　tactical　warfare；　the　number　of　weapons　and　〃systems　elements〃　increased　astronomically。　Modern　estimates　imagined　400　million　puters　in　the　field；　with　total　weapons　interactions　at　more　than　15　billion　in　the　first　half　hour　of　war。　This　meant　there　would　be　8　million　weapons　interactions　every　second；　in　a　bewildering　ultrafast　conflict　of　aircraft；　missiles；　tanks；　and　ground　troops。
　Such　a　war　was　only　manageable　by　machines；　human　response　times　were　simply　too　slow。　World　War　HI　would　not　be　a　push…button　war　because　as　General　Martin　said；　〃It　takes　too　long　for　a　man　to　push　the　button…at　least　1。8　seconds；　which　is　an　eternity　in　modem　warfare。〃
　This　fact　created　what　Martin　called　the　〃rock　problem。〃　Human　responses　were　geologically　slow；　pared　to　a　high…speed　puter。　〃A　modern　puter　performs　2；000；000　calculations　in　the　time　it　takes　a　man　to　blink。　Therefore；　from　the　point　of　view　of　puters　fighting　the　next　war；　human　beings　will　be　essentially　fixed　and　unchanging　elements；　like　rocks。　Human　wars　have　never　lasted　long　enough　to　take　into　account　the　rate　of　geological　change。　In　the　future；　puter　wars　will　not　last　long　enough　to　take　into　account　the　rate　of　human　change。〃
　Since　human　beings　responded　too　slowly；　it　was　necessary　for　them　to　relinquish　decision…making　control　of　the　war　to　the　faster　intelligence　of　puters。　〃In　the　ing　war；　we　must　abandon　any　hope　of　regulating　the　course　of　the　conflict。　If　we　decide　to　'run'　the　war　at　human　speed；　we　will　almost　surely　lose；　Our　only　hope　is　to　put　our　trust　in　machines。　This　makes　human　judgment；　human　values；　human　thinking　utterly　superfluous。　World　War　III　will　be　war　by　proxy：　a　pure　war　of　machines；　over　which　we　dare　exert　no　influence　for　fear　of　so　slowing　the　decision…making　mechanism　as　to　cause　our　defeat。〃　And　the　final；　crucial　transition…the　transition　from　puters　working　at　nanoseconds　to　puters　working　at　picoseconds…was　dependent　on　Type　IIb　diamonds。
　
　Elliot　was　appalled　by　this　prospect　of　turning　control　over　to　the　creations　of　men。
　Ross　shrugged。　〃It's　inevitable；〃　she　said。　〃In　Olduvai　Gorge　in　Tanzania；　there　are　traces　of　a　house　two　million　years　old。　The　hominid　creature　wasn't　satisfied　with　caves　and　other　natural　shelters；　he　created　his　own　acmodations。　Men　have　always　altered　the　natural　world　to　suit　their　purposes。〃
　〃But　you　can't　give　up　control；〃　Elliot　said。
　〃We've　been　doing　it　for　centuries；〃　Ross　said。　〃What's　a　domesticated　animal…or　a　pocket　calculator…except　an　attempt　to　give　up　control？　We　don't　want　to　plow　fields　or　do　square　roots　so　we　turn　the　job　over　to　some　other　intelligence；　which　we've　trained　or　bred　or　created。〃
　〃But　you　can't　let　your　creations　take　over。〃
　〃We've　been　doing　it　for　centuries；〃　Ross　repeated。　〃Look：　even　if　we　refused　to　develop　faster　puters；　the　Russians　would。　They'd　be　in　Zaire　right　now　looking　for　diamonds；　if　the　Chinese　weren't　keeping　them　out。　You　can't　stop　technological　advances。　As　soon　as　we　know　something　is　possible；　we　have　to　carry　it　out。〃
　〃No；〃　Elliot　said。　〃We　can　make　our　own　decisions。　I　won't　be　a　part　of　this。〃
　〃Then　leave；〃　she　said。　〃The　Congo's　no　place　for　academics；　anyway。〃
　She　began　unpacking　her　rucksack；　taking　out　a　series　of　white　ceramic　cones；　and　a　number　of　small　boxes　with　antennae。　She　attached　a　box　to　each　ceramic　cone；　then　entered　the　first　tunnel；　placed　the　cones　flat　against　the　walls；　moving　deeper　into　darkness。
　Peter　not　happy　Peter。
　〃No；〃　Elliot　said。　Why　not　happy'
　〃It's　hard　to　explain；　Amy；〃　he　said。
　Peter　tell　Amy　good　gorilla。
　〃I　know；　Amy。〃
　Karen　Ross　emerged　from　one　tunnel；　and　disappeared　into　the　second。　Elliot　saw　the　glow　of　her　flashlight　as　she　placed　the　cones；　and　then　she　was　hidden　from　view。
　Munro　came　out　into　the　sunlight；　his　pockets　bulging　with　diamonds。　〃Where's　Ross？〃
　〃In　the　tunnels。〃
　〃Doing　what？〃
　〃Some　kind　of　explosive　test；　looks　like。〃　Elliot　gestured　to　the　three　remaining　ceramic　cones　on　the　ground　near　her　pack。
　Munro　picked　up　one　cone；　and　turned　it　over。　〃Do　you　know　what　these　are？〃　he　asked。
　Elliot　shook　his　head。
　〃They're　RCs；〃　Munr